Chávez’den Maduro’ya Venezuela: Devlet Kapasitesi, Ekonomik Çöküş ve ABD’nin Bölgesel Stratejisinin Yeniden Şekillenmesi

Öz

Bu makale, Chávez döneminden bu yana derinleşen Venezuela’nın siyasi, ekonomik ve sosyal krizini, ülkenin mevcut durumunun tarihsel kökenlerini ve bölgesel etkilerini analiz eden bütüncül bir çerçevede incelemektedir. Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, petrol gelirlerine dayalı popülist yeniden dağıtım mekanizmalarının, otoriter konsolidasyon süreçlerinin, ekonomik çöküşün yapısal nedenlerinin ve tüm bu bileşenlerin tetiklediği kitlesel göçün Latin Amerika’daki etkisini incelemektir. Bu bağlamda, makale şu sorulara cevap aramaktadır: 1) Venezuela’da devlet kapasitesi nasıl ve hangi süreçlerle çöktü? 2) Chávez ve Maduro dönemleri arasındaki hangi süreklilikler ve kopmalar mevcut krizi şekillendirdi? 3) Ekonomik çöküş ve kitlesel göç arasındaki ilişki kurumsal ve toplumsal düzeylerde nasıl görünür hale geldi? 4) Trump döneminde ABD tarafından benimsenen azami baskı stratejisi krizi nasıl uluslararasılaştırdı ve jeopolitik rekabeti nasıl derinleştirdi? 5) Mevcut koşullar altında Venezuela için ortaya çıkan potansiyel senaryolar nelerdir? Makale, bulgularında Venezuela krizinin hibrit bir nitelik kazandığını ve yalnızca ulusal değil, bölgesel ve küresel düzeylerde de sonuçlar doğurduğunu göstermektedir. Sonuç olarak, çalışma temel argümanı krizin çözümünün ancak çok taraflı diplomatik mekanizmalar, kapsamlı ekonomik yeniden yapılanma programları ve göç yönetimine odaklanan bütüncül politikalar yoluyla mümkün olduğudur. Çalışma ayrıca ABD’nin tarihsel müdahale uygulamaları ile mevcut çok kutuplu jeopolitik ortam arasındaki gerilimin Venezuela’nın geleceğini belirlemede kritik bir rol oynadığını vurgulamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Venezuela Krizi
• Chávez-Maduro Dönemi
• Otoriterlik
• ABD Dış Politikası
• Monroe Doktrini.

Venezuela from Chávez to Maduro: State Capacity, Economic Collapse, and the Re-Shaping of US’ Regional Strategy

Öz

This article analyses Venezuela’s deepening political, economic, and social crisis since the Chávez era through a holistic perspective, focusing on the historical background and regional impacts of the ongoing situation. The main aim of the study is to assess the effects of oil revenue-driven populist distribution, processes of authoritarian consolidation, structural causes of economic collapse, and the mass migration these factors have triggered across Latin America. The article addresses the following research questions: first, through which processes did state capacity collapse in Venezuela? Second, what continuities and ruptures between the Chávez and Maduro eras have determined the current crisis? Third, how has the relationship between economic collapse and mass migration manifested at institutional and social levels? Fourth, in what ways did the US’ maximum pressure strategy during the Trump administration internationalize the crisis and intensify geo-political rivalry? And finally, what potential scenarios exist for Venezuela under current conditions? The evidence shows that the Venezuelan crisis has assumed a hybrid character, generating consequences at national, regional, and global levels. This study asserts that resolution is possible only through multilateral diplomatic mechanisms, comprehensive economic reconstruction, and integrated migration management policies. Furthermore, it underlines that the relationship between the United States’ historical interventionist practices and the contemporary multipolar geopolitical environment is fundamental in forming Venezuela’s future.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Venezuelan Crisis
• The Chávez-Maduro Era
• Authoritarianism
• US Foreign Policy
• Monroe Doctrine.

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