Türkiye-ABD İlişkileri: Stratejik Güven Bunalımının Anatomisi

Öz

Bu çalışma, 2010’lu yıllardan itibaren Türkiye-ABD münasebetlerinde ivme kazanan ve günümüzde yapısal bir boyuta ulaşan stratejik itimat zafiyetini mercek altına almaktadır. İncelemede, S-400 hava savunma sistemi tedariki neticesinde patlak veren kriz, Türkiye’nin F-35 projesinden ihraç edilmesi ve F-16 alım sürecinin politik bir zemine kayması temel alınarak; mevcut gerilimin salt bir askeri alım uyuşmazlığından öte, ittifakın kurumsal ve siyasi dokusunda meydana gelen bir ayrışmaya nasıl dönüştüğü irdelenmektedir. Söz konusu güven bunalımının sadece konjonktürel politika farklılıklarıyla açıklanamayacağı; aksine karar alma mekanizmalarındaki değişim, kurumlar arasındaki koordinasyonun zayıflaması ve müttefiklik hukukunu tanımlayan normların erozyona uğramasıyla kronikleştiği savunulmaktadır. Bu bağlamda, Ankara’nın farklı vadelerde göğüslemek durumunda kaldığı stratejik ve iktisadi bedeller ile elde ettiği stratejik kazanımlar mukayese edilmektedir. Makalenin sonuç kısmında ise, Türkiye-ABD ilişkilerinin istikbali için rasyonel ve tatbik edilebilir strateji projeksiyonları ortaya konulmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Türkiye-ABD İlişkileri
• Stratejik Güven
• S-400 Krizi
• F-35
• F-16
• İttifak Siyaseti

Türkiye-US Relations: The Anatomy of a Strategic Trust Crisis

Öz

This article examines the strategic trust crisis in Türkiye-US relations, which has intensified since the 2010s and has recently acquired a structural character. By focusing on the S-400 air defense system crisis, Türkiye’s subsequent expulsion from the F-35 program, and the politicization of the F-16 procurement process, the study analyzes how the trust deficit has evolved from a technical arms acquisition issue into a systemic institutional and political rupture within the alliance. It is argued that this crisis cannot be reduced solely to divergent policy preferences; rather, it has deepened through the transformation of decision-making processes, the weakening of inter-institutional relations, and the erosion of alliance norms. Within this framework, the strategic and economic costs encountered by Türkiye in the short, medium, and long term, as well as the gains achieved, are evaluated. Finally, the study offers realistic and viable policy recommendations regarding the future of Türkiye-US relations.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Türkiye-US Relations
• Structural Trust
• S-400 Crisis
• F-35
• F-16
• Alliance Politics

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