TÜRKİYE'DE SEKTÖREL VE TOPLAM GSYH BÜYÜME EĞİLİMLERİNİN ANALİZİ: KARMA ETKİLİ MODELLEME YAKLAŞIMI

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 14 Sayı: 2, 708 - 723, 31.12.2025

Abdulmecit Yıldırım

https://doi.org/10.54282/inijoss.1755404

https://izlik.org/JA72WF58JP

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de bölgesel ve il düzeyinde gelir yakınsamasını incelemek için karma etkili modelleme yaklaşımına dayanan büyüme eğrisi analizi kullanılmıştır. Büyüme eğrisi analizi, geleneksel yakınsama testlerinden farklı olarak, zaman içindeki değişimleri detaylı bir şekilde izleme imkanı sunar. Bu sayede, iller ve bölgeler arasındaki başlangıç koşullarındaki eşitsizliklerin yanı sıra büyüme hızlarının nasıl farklılık gösterdiği daha belirgin şekilde gözlemlenebilmektedir. Çalışmada, 2013-2019 dönemini kapsayan 26 Düzey 2 bölgesi ve 81 ilden elde edilen veriler kullanılmıştır. Betimleyici istatistikler, iller arasında kamu yatırımı ve ekonomik çıktı açısından önemli farklılıklar olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Ampirik bulgular hem toplam hem de sektörel reel GSYH’nin büyüdüğünü; ancak bölgeler arasında başlangıç GSYH seviyelerinde anlamlı farklılıklar bulunduğunu göstermektedir. Bölge kontrol değişkenlerinin modellere dahil edilmesi başlangıç GSYH düzeylerindeki farklılıkların dikkate alınmasını sağlayarak model uyumunu iyileştirmiştir. Ancak genel olarak, zaman-bölge etkileşim değişkenleri istatistiksel olarak anlamlı değildir; bu da çoğu bölgenin benzer büyüme patikasına sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu sonuçlar, Türkiye’de genel ekonomik büyümeye rağmen bölgesel eşitsizliklerin devam ettiğine işaret etmektedir. Çalışma, bölgeler arası farklılıkların azaltılması ve dengeli bölgesel kalkınmanın teşvik edilmesi için sektöre özgü politikaların geliştirilmesinin önemini vurgulamaktadır. Bu çalışma alanı, iller ve bölgeler arasında gelir eşitsizliğinin sürmesine neden olan il ve bölgeye özgü faktörleri de içerecek şekilde geliştirilebilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Bölgesel büyüme , Gelir yakınsaması , Karma etkili modelleme , Büyüme eğrisi analizi

ANALYZING SECTORAL AND AGGREGATE GDP GROWTH PATTERNS IN TÜRKİYE: A MIXED-EFFECTS MODELLING APPROACH

https://izlik.org/JA72WF58JP

Öz

This study utilized growth curve analysis, which is a mixed-effects modeling approach, to examine regional and provincial income convergence in Türkiye. Unlike traditional convergence tests, growth curve analysis provides the opportunity to track changes over time in more detail. The main objective of this study is to examine regional income convergence by analyzing total and sectoral GDP growth trends in the NUTS-2 regions and provinces of Türkiye from 2013 to 2019, as well as to investigate the sources of these inequalities. Descriptive statistics reveal significant disparities in public investment and economic output across provinces. The empirical findings show that although both aggregate and sectoral GDP grew during the study period, significant differences were observed in the initial GDP levels across regions. The incorporation of region-level controls into the models improved the models’ fitness, which reflects meaningful variations in initial GDP levels. However, in general, time-region interaction terms are not statistically significant, indicating that most regions experienced similar growth trajectories. These results underline the need for region and sector-specific development policies to reduce structural disparities and to achieve more balanced regional development. Further research could explore province- and region-specific factors that contribute to the persistence of income inequality among provinces and regions.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Regional growth , Income convergence , Mixed-effects modeling , Growth curve analysis.

Kaynakça

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