Iran’s New Iraq Policy After Saddam: From Sociological Dynamics to Political Realities

Yıl 2021, , 427 - 454, 31.12.2021

İsmail Sarı

https://doi.org/10.33201/iranian.1009337

Cited By: 1

Öz

Relations between Tehran and Baghdad, from the Baath Party's coup in 1968 to the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, were neither neighborly nor normal. Therefore, the overthrow of Saddam Hussein can be considered as one of the turning points in the course of Iran-Iraq relations. With the invasion of Iraq by the US, Iran got rid of an enemy like Saddam, while Iraq quickly entered Iran's influence area. However, the US presence in Iraq has also caused serious security concerns for Iran. During this period, while Iran accelerated its nuclear program due to security concerns, it also maintained its priority of ending the US occupation in Iraq and withdrawing its troops. The new political environment that emerged in post-Saddam Iraq brought risks as well as opportunities for Iran. In addition to the historical and sectarian ties between the Iraqi Shiites and Iran, the search for external support in the power struggle in the country caused the Shiites to get closer to Tehran, while Iran's relations with the Kurds, with whom Iran had cooperated against Baghdad for many years, deteriorated relatively during this new period. While this study analyzes Iran’s relations with Shiites and Kurds, which are the main parameters of its policies towards Iraq, it also claimes that Iran has increased its effectiveness in Iraq with the Shiite population's increasing presence in the Iraqi administration, though local and regional dynamics will prevent Iran from continuing this activity for a longer period of time. Consequently, Iran's policies towards post-Saddam Iraq are analyzed in this context.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Iran, Iraq, Shiites, Kurds, Middle East

Saddam Sonrası İran’ın Yeni Irak Politikası: Sosyolojik Dinamiklerden Politik Gerçeklere

Öz

Tahran ile Bağdat arasındaki ilişkiler Baas Partisi'nin 1968'deki darbesinden 2003'de ABD’nin Irak işgaline kadar, hiçbir zaman iyi komşuluğa dayanmadığı gibi normal de olmamıştır. Dolayısıyla İran-Irak ilişkilerinin seyri açısından Saddam Hüseyin’in devrilmesi dönüm noktalarından biri olarak kabul edilebilir. Zira 2003 yılında ABD'nin Irak'ı işgaliyle İran, Saddam gibi bir düşmanından kurtulurken, Irak ise kısa süre içinde İran’ın nufuz alanı haline gelmiştir. Ancak bununla birlikte Irak’taki ABD varlığı İran için ciddi güvenlik endişelerine de neden olmuştur. Bu dönemde İran güvenlik kaygılarıyla nükleer programına hız verirken, Irak'taki ABD işgalinin sona ermesi ve askerlerinin çekilmesi önceliğini de korumuştur. Saddam sonrası Irak’ta oluşan yeni siyasi ortam, İran için fırsatlarla birlikte riskleri de getirmiştir. Irak Şiileri ile İran arasındaki tarihi ve mezhepsel bağların yanı sıra ülkedeki iktidar mücadelesinde dış destek arayışı Şiilerin İran'a yakınlaşmasına neden olurken, İran’ın uzun yıllar ortak düşman Bağdat’a karşı işbirliği geliştirdiği Kürtler ile ilişkileri ise bu yeni dönemde görece bozulmuştur. Bu çalışma İran’ın Irak’a yönelik politikalarının temel parametreleri olan Şiiler ve Kürtler ile ilişkilerini analiz ederken, İran’ın, Irak’ta Şii nüfusun yönetimde söz sahibi olmasıyla bu ülkede etkinliğini arttırdığını ancak yerel ve bölgesel dinamiklerin İran’ın daha uzun süre bu etkinliği devam ettirmesine engel olacağını iddia etmektedir. Bu bağlamda Saddam sonrası dönemde İran’ın Irak’a yönelik politikaları analiz edilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

İran, Irak, Şiiler, Kürtler, Ortadoğu

Kaynakça

• Abbas, Z. (2017). Irak’ta mezhepsel çekişmelerin boyutları ve sonuçları. Aksaray University İİB Journal, 9(1), 79-86. http://aksarayiibd.aksaray.edu.tr/en/pub/issue/34899/387012
• Ahmadian, H.& Mohseni, P. (2021). From detente to containment: the emergence of Iran's new Saudi strategy, International Affairs, 97(3), 779-799, https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiab014
• Ali, O. (2017). İran ve Barzani: kötüleşen ilişkiler ve kaçınılmaz çatışma riski. ORSAM. http://orsam.org.tr//d_hbanaliz/58tr.pdf
• Anadolu Agency. (2020). Iraqi lawmakers approve Mustafa al-Kadhimi's government https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iraqi-lawmakers-approve-mustafa-al-kadhimis-government/1831935
• Arı, T. (2004). Irak, İran ve ABD: önleyici savaş, petrol ve hegemonya. Alfa Yayınları.
• Atlantic Council. (2021, December 7). Iran’s allies lost seats in the Iraqi elections. Now Tehran is recalibrating its strategy. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/iransource/irans-allies-lost-seats-in-the-iraqi-elections-now-tehran-is-recalibrating-its-strategy
• Aslan, A. (2016). Hasan Şerifi: İran-KDP'si ile İran arasındaki çatışmalar ne anlama geliyor? https://www.demokrathaber.org/iran-kdp039si-ile-iran-arasindaki-catismalar-ne-anlama-geliyor-roportaj,111.html
• Aygün, F.T.(2021). Al-Kadhimi’s quest for balance in foreign policy. ORSAM. https://www.orsam.org.tr/en/al-kadhimis-quest-for-balance-in-foreign-policy/
• Azad, N. (2015, November 28). Barzani Körfez ülkelerinde Bağımsız Kürdistan'a destek arıyor. https://www.nerinaazad.org/tr/news/kurdistan/bashur/barzani-korfez-ulkelerinde-bagimsiz-kurdistana-destek-ariyor
• Azizi, H. (2021). Changes to Iran's role in Iraq in the post-Soleimani era, German Institute for International and Security Affairs, https://www.swp-berlin.org/en/publication/challenges-to-irans-role-in-iraq-in-the-post-soleimani-era
• Balcı, A. (2016). Türkiye'nin üç Irak siyaseti: 2015 yılına dair bir değerlendirme. ORSAM. http://orsam.org.tr/tr/turkiye-nin-uc-irak-siyaseti-2015-yilina-dair-bir-degerlendirme/
• Barzani, M. (2017). Exclusive: ‘No turning back’ on independence vote, Iraqi Kurdish leader tells. France 24. https://www.france24.com/en/f24-interview/20170621-exclusive-interview-independence-referendum-iraq-kurdistan-barzani-mosul
• Barzegar, J. (2014).Kodamı Kurdistan rehberan-ı İran ra mi tersaned. BBC Persian. http://www.bbc.com/persian/iran/2014/08/140810_l20_jb_kurdistan Barzegar, K. (2008). Iran, New Iraq and the Persian Gulf Political-Security Architecture. The Iranian Journal of International Affairs, 20 (1). 93-110. https://www.belfercenter.org/sites/default/files/legacy/files/ISIP.pdf
• BBC.(2021, October 12). Iraq election: Nationalist cleric Moqtada al-Sadr claims victory. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-58881596
• BBC. (2015, August 18). Maliki: Musul'un düşmesi Ankara'da planlanan komplo https://www.bbc.com/turkce/haberler/2015/08/150818_maliki_musul_komplo
• BBC Persian. (2017, June 20). Ayetullah Hamenei hemaperesi Kürdistanı Irak muhalefet kerd. http://www.bbc.com/persian/iran-40342329
• Daragahi, B. (2019). A photo op in Najaf reveals an Iran that could be. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/iransource/a-photo-op-in-najaf-reveals-an-iran-that-could-be
• Duman, B. (2016, October 26). Irak'ın 'dengesini bozan' oluşum: Haşdi Şabi. ORSAM. http://orsam.org.tr/tr/irak-in-dengesini-bozan-olusum-hasdi-sabi/
• Duman, B. (2021). What does the Baghdad Conference mean for Iraq?. MENA Affairs. https://menaaffairs.com/what-does-the-baghdad-conference-mean-for-iraq/
• Dumbrell, J. (2010). Bush’s Foreign Policy Legacy: Counting the Cost. Assessing George W. Bush’s Legacy. Palgrave Macmillan
• Ehteshami, A. (2003) 'Iran-Iraq relations after Saddam.', The Washington Quarterly, 26 (4), 115-129. http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/washingtonq uarterly/v026/26.4ehteshami.pdf Entessar, N. (2010). Kurdish politics in the Middle East. London : Lexington Books.
• Ercan, M., & Bilgin, T. (2012). ABD- İran ilişkileri: ABD-İran gerginliğinin Türkiye’ye etkileri. Akademik Bakış, 33(4), 1-14. https://www.akademikbakis.org/akademikbakis/akademik-bakis-sayi-33-kasim-aralik-2012/
• Gunter, M. M. (2011a). Arab-Kurdish relations and the future of Iraq. Third World Quarterly. https://doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2011.618649
• Gunter, M. M. (2011b). The five stages of American foreign policy towards the Kurds, Insight Turkey, 13(2), 93–106. https://www.insightturkey.com/file/671/the-five-stages-of-american-foreign-policy-towards-the-kurds-spring-2011-vol13-no2
• Gunter, M. M. (2011c). The Kurds ascending: The evolving solution to the Kurdish problem in Iraq and Turkey. Palgrave Macmillan.
• Hawramy, F. (2017). Referendum on independent Kurdistan puts Iran at crossroads. https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/07/iran-position-iraqi-kurdistan-independence-referendum.html
• İnat, K. (2018). Türkiye-Irak ilişkilerinde terör sorunu. SETA. https://www.setav.org/turkiye-irak-iliskilerinde-teror-sorunu/ Iran Daily. (2017). Iran, Iraq sign deal to enhance defense ties. http://www.iran-daily.com/News/197170.html?catid=3&title=Iran--Iraq-sign-deal-to-enhance-defense-ties Kardas, T. (2017). Non-state armed actors in the Middle East. Palgrave Macmillan. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-55287-3
• Kayhan Newspaper. (2020, November 18). Berheste ez eradet, https://kayhan.ir/fa/news/199321
• Keskin, A. (2015). İran'ın Kuzey Irak politikası/İran ve Iraklı Kürtler. OMRAN. http://tr.omrandirasat.org/yay%C4%B1nlar%C4%B1m%C4%B1z/makaleler/iran%E2%80%99in-kuzey-irak-politikasi-iran-ve-irakli-kurtler.html
• Keynoush, B. (2016). Saudi Arabia and Iran: Friends or foes? Palgrave Macmillan. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-137-58939-2
• Koç, M. (2017, September 17). IKBY’nin referandum kararının İran’daki yansımaları. https://iramcenter.org/ikbynin-referandum-kararinin-irandaki-yansimalari/
• KRD News. (2017, October 04). Goran ve Komel: referandum ertelensin. http://www.krdnews.net/news/guney-kurdistan/goran-ve-komel-referandum-ertelensin
• Kulaksızoglu, B. (2014, June 11). IŞİD Bağdat’a ilerliyor. Deutch News. https://www.dw.com/tr/i%C5%9Fid-ba%C4%9Fdata-ilerliyor/a-17700635
• McDowail, D. (1996). A modern history of the Kurds. I. B. Tauris.
• Muir, J. (2014, August 29). Irak'taki Sünni isyancılar "IŞİD'le savaşmaya hazır". BBC Türkçe. https://www.bbc.com/turkce/haberler/2014/08/140829_muir_sunni_isid
• Mustafa, H. A. (2016, June 19). Sistani and Saudi Arabia: relations to face sectarianism. Al-Arabiya. http://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/middle-east/2016/06/19/Sistani-and-Saudi-Arabia-Relations-to-face-sectarianism.html
• Nader, A., Hanauer, L., Allen, B., & Scotten, A. G. (2016). Regional implications of an independent Kurdistan. RAND Corporation. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1452.html
• Newman, E. (2007). Weak states, state failure, and terrorism. Terrorism and Political Violence, 19(4), 463-488. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546550701590636
• Newman, E. (2009). Failed states and international order: Constructing a post-Westphalian world. Contemporary Security Policy. https://doi.org/10.1080/13523260903326479
• Özcan, M. (2014). İbadi'nin Irak'taki zor görevi. Al-Jazeera. http://www.aljazeera.com.tr/gorus/ibadinin-iraktaki-zor-gorevi
• Power, S. (2007). A problem from hell: America and the age of genocide. New York : Harper Perennial.
• Reuters. (2020, June7). Iraqi Kurds plan independence referendum on Sept. 25.https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-iraq-kurds-idUSKBN18Y284
• Reuters. (2021, November 30). Final results confirm Sadr's victory in last month's Iraqi vote
• https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/final-results-show-cleric-sadr-won-iraq-vote-state-media-says-2021-11-30/
• Rezaei, F. (2019). Iran’s foreign policy after the nuclear agreement: politics of normalizers and traditionalists. Palgrave Macmillan.
• Rudaw. (2017, September 17). İran: bağımsızlık ilanında anlaşmalar iptal olur. http://www.rudaw.net/turkish/middleeast/iran/17092017 Sabah. (2016, October 21). Iraklıların "Haşdi Şabi" endişesi. https://www.sabah.com.tr/gundem/2016/10/21/iraklilarin-hasdi-sabi-endisesi
• Sahebkhabar. (2017). Veziri defai Irak. https://www.kisa.link/PrBX
• Salihi, E. (2020) Irak: devletin çöküşü ve çatışma süreci. Kaknüs Yayınları.
• Salim, M., & El-Ghobashy, T. (2019, March 13). By granting rare audience, Iraq’s grand ayatollah sends message to Washington and Tehran.The Washington Post. https://wapo.st/31ZX00v
• Shareef, M. (2014). The United States, Iraq and the Kurds, shock, awe and aftermath. New York : Routledge.
• Sinkaya, B. (2013).Amerikan askerlerinin çekilmesinden sora Irak-İran ilişkileri. SETA. http://file.setav.org/Files/Pdf/20130503102336_seta_rapor_9_iran_irak.pdf
• Sinkaya, B. (2014). Deepening' of strategic partnership between Iraq and Iran. https://www.academia.edu/11558327/THE_DEEPENING_OF_STRATEGIC_PARTNERSHIP_BETWEEN_IRAQ_AND_IRAN
• SIPRI. (2019). Trends in international arms transfers, SIPRI. https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2019-03/fs_1903_at_2018.pdf
• Sputnik News. (2017). IKBY muhalefetinden Goran Hareketi: bağımsızlık referandumu gerçekleşmeyecek. https://tr.sputniknews.com/ortadogu/201706101028837916-ikby-muhalefeti-goran-bagimsizlik-referandumu-gerceklesmeyecek/
• Sputnik News. (2017). Kuzey Irak’taki referandum, Ortadoğu haritasını ne şekilde değiştirebilir? https://tr.sputniknews.com/analiz/201706101028833208-kuzey-irak-referandum-ortadogu-haritasini-ne-sekilde-degistirebilir/
• Sputniknews. (2018). Sadr: Irak'ın sınırın ötesinden yönetilmesine izin vermeyeceğiz. https://tr.sputniknews.com/ortadogu/201807051034161374-sadr-irak-sinir-otesinden-yonetilmesine-izin-vermeyecegiz/
• Tabatabai, A., & Esfandiary, D. (2017). Cooperating with Iran to combat ISIS in Iraq. The Washington Quarterly, 40(3), 129-146. https://doi.org/10.1080/0163660X.2017.1370338
• Tajbakhsh, K. (2019). Getting real about Iran. Foreign Affairs. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/iran/2019-03-19/getting-real-about-iran? utm_campaign=tw_daily_soc&utm_source=twitter_posts&utm_medium=social
• Takeyh, R. (2008). Iran's new Iraq. Middle East Journal, 62(1), 13-30. http://www.jstor.org/stable/25482470
• Tamer, C. (2016). Türkiye ve İran’ın Irak’ta güç tahkim etme çabası: Başika örneği. Gazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 3(6), 103-118. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/285270
• The New York Times. (2020, March 11), Rocket Attack Kills Three U.S. Coalition Members in Iraq. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/11/world/middleeast/us-troops-killed-iraq-rocket- attack.html
• Ulutaş, U. (2016). Şiî Siyasetinde Sadr Faktörü. Akşam.https://www.aksam.com.tr/ufuk-ulutas/yazarlar/sii-siyasetinde-sadr-faktoru/haber-513556
• Uzman, H. O., & Balcı, Ç. (2017). Bölgesel açıdan Kuzey Irak bağımsızlık referandumu ve Türkiye. Turkish Forum. https://www.turkishnews.com/tr/content/2017/08/25/bolgesel-acidan-kuzey-irak-bagimsizlik-referandumu-ve-turkiye/
• Yıldız, K. (2004). The Kurds in Iraq. Pluto Press.