The Resource Curses Hypothesis and The Effect of Trade Openness in The Iranian Economy: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 1, 55 - 77, 24.06.2025

Ömer Doru

https://doi.org/10.33201/iranian.1570655

Öz

This study aims to examine the validity of the resource curse hypothesis and the impact of trade openness on economic growth in the Iranian economy. Despite possessing substantial natural resource reserves, the Iranian economy has struggled to achieve satisfactory economic growth performance. The core motivation of this study is to address Iran's growth challenges within the framework of the resource curse hypothesis and to investigate whether trade openness mitigates this phenomenon. The research relies on annual data spanning the period from 1990 to 2021. Employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach, the study confirms the existence of a co-integration relationship among the variables. The results reveal that natural resource rents exert a negative and statistically significant long-term effect on economic growth, thus validating the resource curse hypothesis in the Iranian context. In contrast, trade openness has a positive long-term impact on economic growth, suggesting that foreign trade can mitigate the adverse effects of the resource curse. Additionally, real gross fixed capital investment significantly and positively contributes to economic growth. According to the error correction model, short-term deviations from equilibrium are corrected over time, restoring balance in the long run. These findings underscore the role of trade openness in fostering economic growth by reducing Iran's dependence on natural resources and transforming resource wealth from a curse into a blessing. This study highlights the critical role of trade openness in optimizing the economic benefits of Iran's abundant natural resource reserves and makes a unique contribution to the literature.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Resource Curse , Trade Openness , Economic Growth , Iranian Economy , ARDL Bounds Test.

İran Ekonomisinde Kaynak Laneti Hipotezi ve Ticari Açıklığın Etkisi: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı

Öz

Bu çalışma, İran ekonomisinde kaynak laneti hipotezinin geçerliliği ve ticari açıklığın ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisini incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. İran ekonomisi, önemli doğal kaynak rezervlerine sahip olmasına rağmen yeterli ekonomik büyüme performansı gösterememektedir. İran ekonomisinin büyüme sorununu kaynak laneti hipotezi çerçevesinde açıklamak ve ticari açıklığın bu olguyu dışlayıp dışlamadığını belirlemek çalışmanın motivasyonunu ortaya koymaktadır. Araştırma, 1990-2021 dönemine ait yıllık verilere dayanmaktadır. Kurulan Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Otoregresif (ARDL) sınır testi modeli sonuçları, değişkenler arasında eş-bütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığını doğrulamaktadır. Elde edilen bulgular, doğal kaynak kirası değişkeninin uzun dönemde ekonomik büyüme üzerinde negatif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkisinin olduğunu, dolayısıyla İran ekonomisinde kaynak laneti hipotezinin geçerli olduğunu göstermektedir. Ticari açıklık değişkeni ise uzun dönemde ekonomik büyümeyi pozitif yönde etkileyerek dış ticaretin kaynak lanetinin etkilerini hafifletebileceğine işaret etmektedir. Aynı zamanda reel gayrisafi sabit sermaye yatırımları değişkeni de ekonomik büyüme üzerinde pozitif ve anlamlı bir etki yaratmaktadır. Hata düzeltme modeline göre, modelde kısa dönemde oluşan sapmaların uzun dönemde telafi edildiği ve tekrar dengeye ulaşıldığı görülmüştür. Bulgular, ticari açıklığın, İran ekonomisinin doğal kaynak bağımlılığını azaltarak ekonomik büyümeyi destekleyebileceğini ve doğal kaynak zenginliğini bir lanet olmaktan çıkarıp bir nimet haline dönüştürebileceğini göstermektedir. Bu çalışma, İran’ın bol doğal kaynak rezervlerinin ekonomik büyümeye olan katkısını optimize etmek için ticari açıklığın oynayabileceği rolü vurgulamakta ve literatüre özgün bir katkı sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Kaynak Laneti , Ticari Açıklık , Ekonomik Büyüme , İran Ekonomisi , ARDL Sınır Testi.

Kaynakça

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