THE CAUSALITY RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RENEWABLE ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY

Öz

Oil, natural gas and coal, which are the primary energy sources in the Middle East - whose majority, in general, are experiencing political instability, are rapidly depleting. High dependence on consumable resources indicates that you will face the problem of energy supply security in the near future. The fact that Turkey, which has a high potential of renewable energy, will focus its economy on green economy and renewable resources will have both a risk of energy supply security and a current deficit. In this study, the causality relationship between per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and per capita renewable energy consumption (including hydropower) for the period 1980-2015 was examined by means of time series analysis. Firstly, ADF and Zivot-Andrews unit root tests were applied to the series and they were found to contain unit root in level values. The series are stationary in the first difference. The results of the ARDL bound test showed that the variables were co-integrated at a level of significance of 5%.  Toda-Yamamoto causality test was applied to cointegrated series and it was found that unilateral causality relationship from renewable energy consumption to growth These results show that increases in renewable energy consumption will provide economic growth.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Renewable Energy,ARDL Bound Test,Toda-Yamamoto

YENİLENEBİLİR ENERJİ TÜKETİMİ İLE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ARASINDA NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Öz

Dünya üzerinde çoğunluğu -genelde siyasi istikrarsızlıkların yaşandığı- Ortadoğu’da bulunan birincil enerji kaynakları olan petrol, doğalgaz ve kömür hızla tükenmektedir. Tükenebilir kaynaklara olan yüksek bağımlılık yakın gelecekte enerji arz güvenliği sorunu ile karşı karşıya kalınacağını göstermektedir. Yenilenebilir enerji potansiyeli yüksek olan Türkiye’nin ekonomisinin yeşil ekonomiye evrilip yenilenebilir kaynaklara ağırlık vermesi hem enerji arz güvenliği riskini hem de cari açığı azaltıcı etki yapacaktır. Bu çalışmada 1980-2015 dönemine ait kişi başına gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla ile kişi başına yenilenebilir enerji tüketimi (hidroelektrik dahil) arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi zaman serisi analiziyle incelenmiştir. Serilere öncelikle ADF ve Zivot-Andrews birim kök testleri uygulanmış ve düzey değerlerinde birim kök içerdikleri görülmüştür. 1. farkları alındığında durağan olan serilerin ARDL sınır testi sonuçları, serilerin %5 anlamlılık düzeyinde eşbütünleşik olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Eşbütünleşik serilere Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi uygulanarak yenilenebilir enerji tüketiminden büyümeye doğru tek yönlü nedensellik olduğu bulunmuştur. Bu sonuç yenilenebilir enerji tüketimindeki artışların ekonomik büyüme sağlayacağını ortaya koymaktadır. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Yenilenebilir enerji,ARDL sınır testi

Kaynakça

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