Araştırma Makalesi
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Paris Anlaşması’nın Türkiye’de Sektörel Üretim Üzerine Etkileri: Bir Girdi-Çıktı Yaklaşımı

Yıl 2023, , 419 - 452, 26.06.2023

Mustafa Boran , Bekir Kayacan

https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2022-1211511

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı Paris iklim Anlaşması’nın Türkiye’de sektörel üretim üzerine etkilerini analiz etmektir. Anlaşma ile tüm taraflardan, sorumluluk ve imkanları nispetinde, sera gazı salınımlarını azaltmaları beklenmektedir. Bu anlamda, gelişmiş ülkelerden mutlak azaltım yapmaları beklenmektedir. Türkiye Anlaşmayıgelişmekte olan bir ülke olarak onaylamış ve uygulamasına Ulusal Katkı Beyanı çerçevesinde 2022 yılında başlamıştır. Anlaşma’nın uygulaması anlamında üç senaryo çalışılmıştır: referans senaryo(gelişmekte olan ülke gibi), mutlak azaltım senaryosu (gelişmiş ülke gibi) ve çıkış senaryosu (Anlaşma’dan çıkılması). Emisyon ve azaltım miktarları herbir senaryo için ayrı ayrı tahmin edilmiştir. Çalışmada 45 sektör bazında yayımlanmış 2018 verilerine dayalı bir girdi-çıktı modeli kullanılmıştır. Emisyon azaltımının hangi sektörlerde yapılacağına ilişkin 5 politika seçeneği analiz edilmiştir: 2018 emisyon paylarına göre tüm sektörlerde (seçenek 1); emisyon katsayısı ortalamanın üzerinde olan en büyük 9 sektörde (seçenek 2); emisyon çarpanı yüksek olan en büyük 6 sektörde (seçenek 3); emisyon çarpanı ortalamanın üzerinde olan en büyük 11 sektörde (seçenek 4); seçenek 4’deki 11 sektör ve inşaatla birlikte 12 sektörde (seçenek 5). Emisyon azaltımının sektörel üretim üzerindeki olumsuz etkileri, tüm senaryo ve politika seçenekleri için yüksek bulunmuştur. Ancak, referans senaryonun etkisi mutlak azaltım senaryosuna göre daha azdır. Emisyon azaltımının az sayıda sektörde yapıldığı politika seçeneklerinin üretim üzerindeki etkisi, diğerlerine göre daha azdır. Politika seçenekleri toplam maliyetleri anlamında en düşük maliyetliden en yükseğe sıralanacak olursa, sıra 3, 2, 4, 5 ve 1 şeklinde olurdu.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Emisyon azaltımı Paris Anlaşması Ekonomik etki analizi Girdi-çıktı modeli

Destekleyen Kurum

YOK

Proje Numarası

YOK

Teşekkür

YOK

Kaynakça

  • Altieri, K. E., Trollip, H., Caeano, T., Hughes, A., Merven, B., & Winkler, H. (2016). Achieving Development and Mitigation Objectives through a Decarbonisation Development Pathway in South Africa. Climate Policy, 16/1, S78-S91. https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2016.1150250 google scholar
  • Babatunde, K.A., Begum, R.A., & Saida, F.F. (2017). Application of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) to Climate Change Mitigation Policy: A systematic review. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2017/78, 61-71. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2017.04.064 google scholar
  • Blitzer, C.R., Eckaus, R.S., Lahiri, S., & Meeraus, A. (1990). The General Equilibrium Analysis of the Effects of Carbon Emission Restrictions on Economic Growth in a Developing Country. MIT Working Papers, 558. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/63674 google scholar
  • Bouzaher, A., Sahin, S., & Yeldan, E. (2014). How to go Green: A General Equilibrium Investigation of Environmental Policies for Sustained Growth with an Application to Turkey’s Economy. Lett SputResourSci, 2015/8, 49-76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12076-014-0124-0 google scholar
  • Dejuan, O., Lenzen, M., & Cadarso, M.A. (Eds.) (2018). Environmental and Economic Impacts of Decarbonisation: Input – Output Studies on the Consequences of the 2015 Paris Agreement. New York, NY: Routledge Explorations in Environmental Economics, 50 google scholar
  • EUROSTAT. (2021, December 17). Air Emissions Accounts by NACE Rev. 2 Activity. Retrieved from https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=env_ac_ainah_r2&lang=en google scholar
  • Jorgenson, D. & Wilcoxen, P. (1989). Environmental Regulation and the US Economic Growth. The RAND Journal of Economics, 21/2, 314-340. https://doi.org/10.2307/2555426 google scholar
  • Kayacan, B. (2020). Türkiye Ekonomisinin Sektörler Arası Girdi-Çıktı Analizi (2nd ed.) [Interindustry input-output analysis in Turkish economy]. İstanbul, Türkiye: Yalın Yayıncılık. google scholar
  • Kolsuz, G. & Yeldan, A.E. (2017). Economics of Climate Change and Green Employment: A General Equilibrium Investigation for Turkey. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Review, 2017/70, 1240- 1250. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.12.025 google scholar
  • Kratena, K. & Schleicher, S. (1999). The Impact of CO2 Reduction on the Austrian Economy. Journal of Economic Systems Research, 1999/11(3), 245-261. https://doi.org/10.1080/0953531 9900000017 google scholar
  • la Rovere, E.L., Wills, W., Grottera, C., Dubeuxc, B.S., & Gesteira, C. (2018). Economic and Social Implications of Low-Emission Development Pathways in Brazil. Journal of Carbon Management, 9/5, 563-574. https://doi.org/10.1080/17583004.2018.1507413 google scholar
  • Lixon, B., Thomassin, P.J., & Hamaide, B. (2008). Industrial Output Restriction and the Kyoto Protocol: An Input–Output Approach with Application to Canada. Elsevier Ecological Economics, 68, 249- 258. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2008.03.001 google scholar
  • Marcucci, A. & Zhang, L. (2019). Growth Impacts of Swiss Steering-Based Climate Policies. Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, 155/9. https://doi.org/10.1186/s41937-019-0043-5 google scholar
  • Miller, R.E. & Blair P.D. (2009). Input – Output Analysis: Foundations and Extensions. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. google scholar
  • OECD. (2021a, November 19). Input-Output Database, IOTs 2021: Input-Output Tables. Retrieved from https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=IOTS google scholar
  • OECD. (2021b, December 24). Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Retrieved from https://stats.oecd.org/ google scholar
  • Telli, C., Voyvoda, E., & Yeldan, E. (2007). Economics of Environmental Policy in Türkiye: A General Equilibrium Investigation of the Economic Evaluation of Sectoral Emission Reduction Policies for Climate Change. ScienceDirect Journal of Policy Modeling, 2008/30, 321-340. https://doi. org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2007.03.001 google scholar
  • Turkish Ministry of Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change. (2018). Modelling Fiscal, Economic and Sectoral Impacts of Carbon Pricing in Turkey Final Report. Vivideconomics. google scholar
  • Turkish Ministry of Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change. (2021, December 19). Türkiye. 2021 Common Reporting Format (CRF) Table. Retrieved from https://unfccc.int/ documents/271541 google scholar
  • UNFCCC. (2022a, November 19). Paris Agreement-Status of Ratification. Retrieved from https:// unfccc.int/process/the-paris-agreement/status-of-ratification google scholar
  • UNFCCC. (2022b, November 19). Republic of Türkiye: Intended Nationally Determined Contribution. Retrieved from https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2022-06/The_INDC_of_ TURKEY_v.15.19.30.pdf google scholar

The Economic Impact of the Paris Agreement on Sectoral Outputs in Türkiye: An Input-Output Approach

Yıl 2023, , 419 - 452, 26.06.2023

Mustafa Boran , Bekir Kayacan

https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2022-1211511

Öz

This study analyzes the economic impact of the Paris Agreement on sectoral outputs in Türkiye. All member countries are required to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by the Agreement according to their responsibilities and capabilities. In this regard, developed countries are subject to absolute emission reduction. Türkiye ratified the Agreement in 2021 as a developing country and started implementation in 2022 as stated in the Nationally Determined Contributions. Regarding implementation of theAgreement, three scenarios are analyzed: the business-as-usual (as a developing country), the absolute emission reduction (as a developed country), and the exit (exiting the Agreement). Emission pathways and reduction amounts for each scenario are estimatedaccordingly. An input-output model is used based on 2018 tables for 45 sectors. Five policy options are analyzed regarding how to distribute the emission reduction burden among sectors: all sectors according to their shares in 2018 emissions (option 1); the top 9 sectors whose emission coefficients are above average (option 2); the top 6 sectors whose emission multipliers are high (option 3); the top 11 sectors whose emission multipliers are above average (option 4); the top 12 sectors which are the top 11 in option 4 plus the construction sector (option 5). Reducing emissions significantly reduces sectoral output in all scenarios and policy options. However, the impact of the business-as-usual is less than absolute emission reduction. Targeting only a few sectors in emission reduction results in a lower impact. If policy optionsare sorted by their total cost from smallest to largest, the order would be 3, 2, 4, 5, and 1.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Emission reduction The Paris Agreement Economic impact analysis Input-output model

Proje Numarası

YOK

Kaynakça

  • Altieri, K. E., Trollip, H., Caeano, T., Hughes, A., Merven, B., & Winkler, H. (2016). Achieving Development and Mitigation Objectives through a Decarbonisation Development Pathway in South Africa. Climate Policy, 16/1, S78-S91. https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2016.1150250 google scholar
  • Babatunde, K.A., Begum, R.A., & Saida, F.F. (2017). Application of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) to Climate Change Mitigation Policy: A systematic review. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2017/78, 61-71. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2017.04.064 google scholar
  • Blitzer, C.R., Eckaus, R.S., Lahiri, S., & Meeraus, A. (1990). The General Equilibrium Analysis of the Effects of Carbon Emission Restrictions on Economic Growth in a Developing Country. MIT Working Papers, 558. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/63674 google scholar
  • Bouzaher, A., Sahin, S., & Yeldan, E. (2014). How to go Green: A General Equilibrium Investigation of Environmental Policies for Sustained Growth with an Application to Turkey’s Economy. Lett SputResourSci, 2015/8, 49-76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12076-014-0124-0 google scholar
  • Dejuan, O., Lenzen, M., & Cadarso, M.A. (Eds.) (2018). Environmental and Economic Impacts of Decarbonisation: Input – Output Studies on the Consequences of the 2015 Paris Agreement. New York, NY: Routledge Explorations in Environmental Economics, 50 google scholar
  • EUROSTAT. (2021, December 17). Air Emissions Accounts by NACE Rev. 2 Activity. Retrieved from https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=env_ac_ainah_r2&lang=en google scholar
  • Jorgenson, D. & Wilcoxen, P. (1989). Environmental Regulation and the US Economic Growth. The RAND Journal of Economics, 21/2, 314-340. https://doi.org/10.2307/2555426 google scholar
  • Kayacan, B. (2020). Türkiye Ekonomisinin Sektörler Arası Girdi-Çıktı Analizi (2nd ed.) [Interindustry input-output analysis in Turkish economy]. İstanbul, Türkiye: Yalın Yayıncılık. google scholar
  • Kolsuz, G. & Yeldan, A.E. (2017). Economics of Climate Change and Green Employment: A General Equilibrium Investigation for Turkey. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Review, 2017/70, 1240- 1250. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.12.025 google scholar
  • Kratena, K. & Schleicher, S. (1999). The Impact of CO2 Reduction on the Austrian Economy. Journal of Economic Systems Research, 1999/11(3), 245-261. https://doi.org/10.1080/0953531 9900000017 google scholar
  • la Rovere, E.L., Wills, W., Grottera, C., Dubeuxc, B.S., & Gesteira, C. (2018). Economic and Social Implications of Low-Emission Development Pathways in Brazil. Journal of Carbon Management, 9/5, 563-574. https://doi.org/10.1080/17583004.2018.1507413 google scholar
  • Lixon, B., Thomassin, P.J., & Hamaide, B. (2008). Industrial Output Restriction and the Kyoto Protocol: An Input–Output Approach with Application to Canada. Elsevier Ecological Economics, 68, 249- 258. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2008.03.001 google scholar
  • Marcucci, A. & Zhang, L. (2019). Growth Impacts of Swiss Steering-Based Climate Policies. Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, 155/9. https://doi.org/10.1186/s41937-019-0043-5 google scholar
  • Miller, R.E. & Blair P.D. (2009). Input – Output Analysis: Foundations and Extensions. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. google scholar
  • OECD. (2021a, November 19). Input-Output Database, IOTs 2021: Input-Output Tables. Retrieved from https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=IOTS google scholar
  • OECD. (2021b, December 24). Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Retrieved from https://stats.oecd.org/ google scholar
  • Telli, C., Voyvoda, E., & Yeldan, E. (2007). Economics of Environmental Policy in Türkiye: A General Equilibrium Investigation of the Economic Evaluation of Sectoral Emission Reduction Policies for Climate Change. ScienceDirect Journal of Policy Modeling, 2008/30, 321-340. https://doi. org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2007.03.001 google scholar
  • Turkish Ministry of Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change. (2018). Modelling Fiscal, Economic and Sectoral Impacts of Carbon Pricing in Turkey Final Report. Vivideconomics. google scholar
  • Turkish Ministry of Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change. (2021, December 19). Türkiye. 2021 Common Reporting Format (CRF) Table. Retrieved from https://unfccc.int/ documents/271541 google scholar
  • UNFCCC. (2022a, November 19). Paris Agreement-Status of Ratification. Retrieved from https:// unfccc.int/process/the-paris-agreement/status-of-ratification google scholar
  • UNFCCC. (2022b, November 19). Republic of Türkiye: Intended Nationally Determined Contribution. Retrieved from https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2022-06/The_INDC_of_ TURKEY_v.15.19.30.pdf google scholar
Toplam 21 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular İşletme
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Mustafa Boran 0000-0002-7849-0623

Bekir Kayacan 0000-0002-6569-8054

Proje Numarası YOK
Yayımlanma Tarihi 26 Haziran 2023
Gönderilme Tarihi 29 Kasım 2022
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2023

Kaynak Göster

APA Boran, M., & Kayacan, B. (2023). The Economic Impact of the Paris Agreement on Sectoral Outputs in Türkiye: An Input-Output Approach. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, 73(1), 419-452. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2022-1211511
AMA Boran M, Kayacan B. The Economic Impact of the Paris Agreement on Sectoral Outputs in Türkiye: An Input-Output Approach. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi. Haziran 2023;73(1):419-452. doi:10.26650/ISTJECON2022-1211511
Chicago Boran, Mustafa, ve Bekir Kayacan. “The Economic Impact of the Paris Agreement on Sectoral Outputs in Türkiye: An Input-Output Approach”. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi 73, sy. 1 (Haziran 2023): 419-52. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2022-1211511.
EndNote Boran M, Kayacan B (01 Haziran 2023) The Economic Impact of the Paris Agreement on Sectoral Outputs in Türkiye: An Input-Output Approach. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi 73 1 419–452.
IEEE M. Boran ve B. Kayacan, “The Economic Impact of the Paris Agreement on Sectoral Outputs in Türkiye: An Input-Output Approach”, İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, c. 73, sy. 1, ss. 419–452, 2023, doi: 10.26650/ISTJECON2022-1211511.
ISNAD Boran, Mustafa - Kayacan, Bekir. “The Economic Impact of the Paris Agreement on Sectoral Outputs in Türkiye: An Input-Output Approach”. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi 73/1 (Haziran 2023), 419-452. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2022-1211511.
JAMA Boran M, Kayacan B. The Economic Impact of the Paris Agreement on Sectoral Outputs in Türkiye: An Input-Output Approach. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi. 2023;73:419–452.
MLA Boran, Mustafa ve Bekir Kayacan. “The Economic Impact of the Paris Agreement on Sectoral Outputs in Türkiye: An Input-Output Approach”. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, c. 73, sy. 1, 2023, ss. 419-52, doi:10.26650/ISTJECON2022-1211511.
Vancouver Boran M, Kayacan B. The Economic Impact of the Paris Agreement on Sectoral Outputs in Türkiye: An Input-Output Approach. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi. 2023;73(1):419-52.