Technological and Socio-Economic Effects of Fifth and Sixth Kondratieff Waves

Öz

After the industrial revolution, capitalist economies have entered the process of rapid growth. But this growth process is not steady. Rapid expansion periods are usually followed by crisis periods which cause social welfare to fall and poverty. The Kondratieff waves, which lasted for about 50 years, explain this fluctuating development process in relation to technological developments. The aim of this work is to explain the structural and institutional transformations created by the Kondratieff waves; to examine the effects of the expected sixth wave. For this purpose, the great surge of development approach introduced by Carlota Perez is used. The most important outcome of this study is the foresight that the beginning of the sixth Kondratieff wave will deepen the problems of unemployment, income distribution inequality and the breakdown of interrelation between finance and production. It is expected that the impacts of information technologies will be felt more in developing countries, today and in near future. This situation is likely to trigger start of fifth Kondratieff wave in developing countries that may raise aforementoned problems already existing in many developing countries. Therefore, the onset of the fifth wave will aggravate existing problems. This prediction is another result of the article.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Long Waves
• Structural Change
• Innovation

Beşinci ve Altıncı Kondratieff Dalgalarının Teknolojik ve Sosyoekonomik Etkileri

Öz

Sanayi Devrimi’nden sonra, kapitalist ekonomiler hızlı büyümeye sürecine girmişlerdir. Fakat bu büyüme süreci dengeli değildir. Hızlı genişleme dönemlerini genellikle, sosyal refahın düşmesine ve yoksulluğa neden olan kriz dönemleri takip etmektedir. Takriben elli yıl süren Kondratieff Dalgaları, bu dalgalı gelişim sürecini teknolojik gelişmeler ve yenilikler ile ilişkili olarak açıklamaktadırlar. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Kondratieff Dalgalarının yarattığı yapısal ve kurumsal dönüşümleri açıklamak; bu çerçevede beklenen Altıncı Kondratieff Dalgası’nın yaratacağı etkileri incelemektir. Bu amaçla Carlota Perez tarafından ortaya konulan büyük gelişme dalgası yaklaşımı kullanılmıştır. Altıncı Kondratieff Dalgası’nın başlamasının, işsizlik, gelir dağılımı bozukluğu ve finans sektörü ile sanayi sektörü arasında bulunan bağların kopması sorunlarını derinleştireceği öngörüsü, çalışmanın ulaştığı en önemli sonuçtur. İçinde bulunduğumuz süreçte ve gelecek dönemde, bilgi teknolojilerinin etkilerinin gelişmekte olan ülkelerde daha çok hissedilmesi beklenmektedir. Bu durumun gelişmekte olan ülkelerde Beşinci Kondratieff Dalgası’nı başlatması olasıdır. Gelişmekte olan ülkelerde Beşinci Kondratieff Dalgası’nın başlaması; işsizlik, gelir dağılımı bozukluğu ve finans sektörü ile sanayi sektörü arasında bulunan bağların kopması gibi sorunları gündeme getirebilir. Mevcut durumda birçok gelişmekte olan ülkede bu sorunlar mevcuttur. Bu nedenle Beşinci Kondratieff Dalgası’nın başlaması, mevcut olan sorunları daha da ağırlaştıracaktır. Bu öngörü, çalışmanın ulaştığı diğer bir önemli sonuçtur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Uzun Dalgalar
• Yapısal Dönüşüm
• Yenilik

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