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Makro İktisatta Teorik Arayışlar

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 70 Sayı: 2, 451 - 477, 31.12.2020
https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2020-803096

Öz

Dinamik stokastik genel denge (DSGD) modelleri küresel finansal krize kadar baskınlığını korumuştur. Bazı iktisatçılar artık makro iktisadın olgun bir bilim olduğunu belirtirken; karşıt taraftaki iktisatçılar DSGD temelli makro iktisadın sonunun geldiğini ifade etmişlerdir. Her ne kadar iki görüşün kesin doğruluğu söz konusu olmasa da gerçek dışı varsayımlar üzerine temellenen ve iktisadi bir krizin olma ihtimalini göz ardı eden makro iktisat teorilerinin geçerliliği küresel finansal kriz ile sorgulanmıştır. Bu çalışmanın konusu, makro iktisadın küresel finansal krizden teorik temelde nasıl etkilendiğini araştırmaktır. Çalışmanın amaçlarından ilki, DSGD modellerinin günümüzde ne kadar geçerli olduğunu tespit etmeye çalışmaktır. Çalışmadaki bir diğer amaç ise makro iktisadın küresel finansal krizi öngörmede nerede hatalı olduğunu ve eksik taraflarının neler olduğunu tespit etmektir. Çalışmada makro iktisat teorisinin küresel finansal krizden hem teorik hem de iktisat politikası açısından nasıl etkilendiğini ve hangi konularda fikir ayrılıklarının olduğunu tespit etmek için literatüre yön veren çalışmalar incelenmiştir. Buna göre, DSGD modellerinin krizi öngörmede yeterli olmadığı ve finansal krizi atlatmak için hem geleneksel olmayan para politikası araçlarının kullanılması hem de maliye politikasına ihtiyaç olduğu söylenebilir.

Teşekkür

1) Teorik çalışmaları ile bana ışık tutan Prof. Dr. Ercan EREN’e ve değerli katkılarından dolayı Araştırma Görevlisi Gamze KUTLU’ya teşekkür ederim.

Kaynakça

  • Bauer, M. D., & Rudebusch, G. D. (2013). The Signaling Channel for Federal Reserve Bond Purchases. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper Series 2011-21.
  • Bernanke, B. S. (2017). Monetary Policy in New Era. Peterson Institute for International Economics.Blanchard, O. (2017, Ocak). The Need for Different Classes of Macroeconomic Models. Peterson Institute for International Economics. https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/need-different-classes-macroeconomic-models
  • Blanchard, O. (2018). On the Future of Macroeconomic Models. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 34(1-2), 43-54.
  • Blanchard, O. J., & Leigh, D. (2014). Learning about Fiscal Multipliers from Growth Forecast Errors. IMF Economic Review, 62(2), 179-212.
  • Blanchard, O. J., & Summers, L. H. (2017). Retihnking Stabilization Policy: Evolution or Revolution? National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 24179.
  • Blanchard, O., & Brancaccio, E. (2019). Crisis and Revolution in Economic Theory and Policy: Debate. Review of Political Economy.
  • Borg, A. (2019). Borç Gölgesinde Maliye Politikası: Artık Keynesçiliği Hâlâ İşe Yaramaktadır. G. Akerlof, O. Blanchard, D. Romer, & J. Stiglitz (Ed.). Ne Öğrendik? Kriz Sonrası Makro İktisat Politikası (Ö. Limanlı, & E. Kaya, Çev., s. 169-176). Ankara: Efil Yayınevi.
  • Brunnermeier, M. K., & Koby, Y. (2018). The Reversal Interest Rate. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 25406.
  • Caballero, R. J. (2010). Macroeconomics after the Crisis: Time to Deal With Pretense-of-Knowledge Syndrome. NBER Working Paper 16429.
  • Campbell, J. R., Evans, C. L., Fisher, J. D., & Justiniano, A. (2012). Macroeconomic Effects of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity.
  • Colander, D., Howitt, P., Kirman, A., Leijonhufvud, A., & Mehrling, P. (2008). Beyond DSGE Models: Toward an Empirically Based Macroeconomics. The American Economic Review, 98(2), 236-240.
  • Feroli, M., Greenlaw, D., Hooper, P., Mishkin, F. S., & Sufi, A. (2017). Language after Liftoff: Fed Communication Away from the Zero Lower Bound. Research in Economics.
  • Huther, J., Ihrig, J., & Klee, E. (2017-075). The Federal Reserve’s Porfolio and its Effect on Interest Rates. Board of Governors of the Federal System, Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Washington DC, June 2017.
  • King, M. A. (2019). Kriz Sürecinde Para Politikası: Diplerden Tepelere. G. Akerlof, O. Blanchard, D. Romer, & J. Stiglitz (Ed.). Ne Öğrendik? Kriz Sonrası Makro İktisat Politikası (Ö. Limanlı, & E. Kaya, Çev., s. 44-52). Ankara: Efil Yayınevi.
  • Krugman, P. (2018). Good Enough for Government Work? Macroeconomics Since the Crisis. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 34(1-2), 156-168.
  • Lindé, J. (2018). DSGE Models: Still Useful in Policy Analysis? Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 34(1-2), 269-286.Lucas, R. E. (2003). Macroeconomic Priorities. The American Economic Review, 93(1), 1-14.
  • Lucas, R. E., & Sargent, T. J. (1978). After Keynesian Macroeconomics. After the Phillips Curve: Persistence of High Inflation and High Unemployment (s. 49-72). Federal Rezerve Bank of Boston.
  • Perotti, R. (2011). The “Austerity Myth”: Gain Without Pain? National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No. 17571.
  • Perotti, R. (2019). Durgunlukta Maliye Politikası. G. Akerlof, O. Blanchard, D. Romer, & J. Stiglitz (Ed.). Ne Öğrendik? Kriz Sonrası Makro İktisat Politikası (Ö. Limanlı, & E. Kaya, Çev., s. 177-190). Ankara: Efil Yayınevi.
  • Reis, R. (2018). Is Something Really Wrong with Macroeconomics? Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 34(1-2), 132-155.Rogoff, K. S. (2016). The Curse of Cash. New Jersey: Princeton University Press.
  • Romer, P. (2016). The Trouble with Macroeconomics. Working Paper.
  • Roubini, N. (2019). Maliye Politikası. G. Akerlof, O. Blanchard, D. Romer, & J. Stiglitz (Ed.). Ne Öğrendik? Kriz Sonrası Makro İktisat Politikası (Ö. Limanlı, & E. Kaya, Çev., s. 191-203). Ankara: Efil Yayınevi.
  • Stiglitz, J. E. (2014). Reconstructing Macroeconomic Theory to Manage Economic Policy. NBER Working Paper 20517.
  • Stiglitz, J. E. (2018). Where Modern Macroeconomics Went Wrong. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 34(1-2), 70-106.
  • Swanson, E. T. (2017). Measuring the Effects of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance and Asset Purchases on Financial Markets. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 23311.
  • Vines, D., & Wills, S. (2018). The Rebuilding Macroeconomic Theory Project: An Analytical Assessment. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 34(1-2), 1-42.
  • Williams, J. C. (2016). Discussion of “Languange after Liftoff: Fed Communication away from the Zero Lower Bound. New York: Presentation at the US. Monetary Policy Forum.
  • Yellen, J. L. (2016). The Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Toolkit: Past, Present, and Future. Designing Resilient Monetary Policy Frameworks for the Future. Jackson Hole.

Theoritical Seekings in Macroeconomics

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 70 Sayı: 2, 451 - 477, 31.12.2020
https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2020-803096

Öz

Dynamics stochastics general equilibrium (DSGE) models are dominant until the 2008 global financial crisis. Although some economists have stated that macroeconomics is a mature science, others believe that macroeconomics that is based on DSGE models has come to its end. Although these opinions are not true, the validity of macroeconomic theories that are based on unreal assumptions and ignore the probability of financial crisis have been questioned during the global financial crisis. This study investigates how macroeconomics has been affected by the global financial crisis on a theoretical basis. The first aim of this study is to determine how valid DSGE models are currently. Another purpose of this study is to find out why macroeconomics failed to predict the global financial crisis and the inadequacies of macroeconomics. Relevant studies have been examined to determine how “macroeconomic theories” has been affected by the financial crisis from both theoretical and economic policy perspectives and issues that economists have different opinions on. In this context, it can be said that DSGE models were not sufficient to predict the financial crisis, and it is essential to use unconventional monetary and fiscal policies to overcome a financial crisis.

Kaynakça

  • Bauer, M. D., & Rudebusch, G. D. (2013). The Signaling Channel for Federal Reserve Bond Purchases. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper Series 2011-21.
  • Bernanke, B. S. (2017). Monetary Policy in New Era. Peterson Institute for International Economics.Blanchard, O. (2017, Ocak). The Need for Different Classes of Macroeconomic Models. Peterson Institute for International Economics. https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/need-different-classes-macroeconomic-models
  • Blanchard, O. (2018). On the Future of Macroeconomic Models. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 34(1-2), 43-54.
  • Blanchard, O. J., & Leigh, D. (2014). Learning about Fiscal Multipliers from Growth Forecast Errors. IMF Economic Review, 62(2), 179-212.
  • Blanchard, O. J., & Summers, L. H. (2017). Retihnking Stabilization Policy: Evolution or Revolution? National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 24179.
  • Blanchard, O., & Brancaccio, E. (2019). Crisis and Revolution in Economic Theory and Policy: Debate. Review of Political Economy.
  • Borg, A. (2019). Borç Gölgesinde Maliye Politikası: Artık Keynesçiliği Hâlâ İşe Yaramaktadır. G. Akerlof, O. Blanchard, D. Romer, & J. Stiglitz (Ed.). Ne Öğrendik? Kriz Sonrası Makro İktisat Politikası (Ö. Limanlı, & E. Kaya, Çev., s. 169-176). Ankara: Efil Yayınevi.
  • Brunnermeier, M. K., & Koby, Y. (2018). The Reversal Interest Rate. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 25406.
  • Caballero, R. J. (2010). Macroeconomics after the Crisis: Time to Deal With Pretense-of-Knowledge Syndrome. NBER Working Paper 16429.
  • Campbell, J. R., Evans, C. L., Fisher, J. D., & Justiniano, A. (2012). Macroeconomic Effects of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity.
  • Colander, D., Howitt, P., Kirman, A., Leijonhufvud, A., & Mehrling, P. (2008). Beyond DSGE Models: Toward an Empirically Based Macroeconomics. The American Economic Review, 98(2), 236-240.
  • Feroli, M., Greenlaw, D., Hooper, P., Mishkin, F. S., & Sufi, A. (2017). Language after Liftoff: Fed Communication Away from the Zero Lower Bound. Research in Economics.
  • Huther, J., Ihrig, J., & Klee, E. (2017-075). The Federal Reserve’s Porfolio and its Effect on Interest Rates. Board of Governors of the Federal System, Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Washington DC, June 2017.
  • King, M. A. (2019). Kriz Sürecinde Para Politikası: Diplerden Tepelere. G. Akerlof, O. Blanchard, D. Romer, & J. Stiglitz (Ed.). Ne Öğrendik? Kriz Sonrası Makro İktisat Politikası (Ö. Limanlı, & E. Kaya, Çev., s. 44-52). Ankara: Efil Yayınevi.
  • Krugman, P. (2018). Good Enough for Government Work? Macroeconomics Since the Crisis. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 34(1-2), 156-168.
  • Lindé, J. (2018). DSGE Models: Still Useful in Policy Analysis? Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 34(1-2), 269-286.Lucas, R. E. (2003). Macroeconomic Priorities. The American Economic Review, 93(1), 1-14.
  • Lucas, R. E., & Sargent, T. J. (1978). After Keynesian Macroeconomics. After the Phillips Curve: Persistence of High Inflation and High Unemployment (s. 49-72). Federal Rezerve Bank of Boston.
  • Perotti, R. (2011). The “Austerity Myth”: Gain Without Pain? National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No. 17571.
  • Perotti, R. (2019). Durgunlukta Maliye Politikası. G. Akerlof, O. Blanchard, D. Romer, & J. Stiglitz (Ed.). Ne Öğrendik? Kriz Sonrası Makro İktisat Politikası (Ö. Limanlı, & E. Kaya, Çev., s. 177-190). Ankara: Efil Yayınevi.
  • Reis, R. (2018). Is Something Really Wrong with Macroeconomics? Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 34(1-2), 132-155.Rogoff, K. S. (2016). The Curse of Cash. New Jersey: Princeton University Press.
  • Romer, P. (2016). The Trouble with Macroeconomics. Working Paper.
  • Roubini, N. (2019). Maliye Politikası. G. Akerlof, O. Blanchard, D. Romer, & J. Stiglitz (Ed.). Ne Öğrendik? Kriz Sonrası Makro İktisat Politikası (Ö. Limanlı, & E. Kaya, Çev., s. 191-203). Ankara: Efil Yayınevi.
  • Stiglitz, J. E. (2014). Reconstructing Macroeconomic Theory to Manage Economic Policy. NBER Working Paper 20517.
  • Stiglitz, J. E. (2018). Where Modern Macroeconomics Went Wrong. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 34(1-2), 70-106.
  • Swanson, E. T. (2017). Measuring the Effects of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance and Asset Purchases on Financial Markets. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 23311.
  • Vines, D., & Wills, S. (2018). The Rebuilding Macroeconomic Theory Project: An Analytical Assessment. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 34(1-2), 1-42.
  • Williams, J. C. (2016). Discussion of “Languange after Liftoff: Fed Communication away from the Zero Lower Bound. New York: Presentation at the US. Monetary Policy Forum.
  • Yellen, J. L. (2016). The Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Toolkit: Past, Present, and Future. Designing Resilient Monetary Policy Frameworks for the Future. Jackson Hole.
Toplam 28 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular İşletme
Bölüm Derleme
Yazarlar

Emre Örün 0000-0002-2739-1959

Yayımlanma Tarihi 31 Aralık 2020
Gönderilme Tarihi 30 Eylül 2020
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2020 Cilt: 70 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Örün, E. (2020). Makro İktisatta Teorik Arayışlar. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, 70(2), 451-477. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2020-803096
AMA Örün E. Makro İktisatta Teorik Arayışlar. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi. Aralık 2020;70(2):451-477. doi:10.26650/ISTJECON2020-803096
Chicago Örün, Emre. “Makro İktisatta Teorik Arayışlar”. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi 70, sy. 2 (Aralık 2020): 451-77. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2020-803096.
EndNote Örün E (01 Aralık 2020) Makro İktisatta Teorik Arayışlar. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi 70 2 451–477.
IEEE E. Örün, “Makro İktisatta Teorik Arayışlar”, İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, c. 70, sy. 2, ss. 451–477, 2020, doi: 10.26650/ISTJECON2020-803096.
ISNAD Örün, Emre. “Makro İktisatta Teorik Arayışlar”. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi 70/2 (Aralık 2020), 451-477. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2020-803096.
JAMA Örün E. Makro İktisatta Teorik Arayışlar. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi. 2020;70:451–477.
MLA Örün, Emre. “Makro İktisatta Teorik Arayışlar”. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, c. 70, sy. 2, 2020, ss. 451-77, doi:10.26650/ISTJECON2020-803096.
Vancouver Örün E. Makro İktisatta Teorik Arayışlar. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi. 2020;70(2):451-77.