Finansal Kurumların ve Piyasaların Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkileri: Dinamik Panel Veri Analizi

Öz

Bu çalışma, 1990–2021 döneminde 68 ülkeyi kapsayan bir örneklem üzerinden finansal gelişmişliğin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkilerini incelemektedir. Çalışma, Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıla’nın harcama yöntemi bileşenleri çerçevesinde yürütülmüş ve finansal gelişmişlik, Finansal Gelişme Endeksi’nin iki alt boyutu olan Finansal Kurumlar Gelişme Endeksi ile Finansal Piyasalar Gelişme Endeksi aracılığıyla ölçülmüştür. Kısa dönemli dalgalanmaların etkisini sınırlamak amacıyla veriler beşer yıllık ortalamalar hâline getirilmiş; geçmiş dönem etkilerini hesaba katmak için ise dinamik panel veri analiz tekniklerinden Arellano–Bond Genelleştirilmiş Momentler Tahmincisi kullanılmıştır. Bulgular, finansal kurumlar endeksinin büyüme üzerinde olumsuz, finansal piyasalar endeksinin ise olumlu etkiler yarattığını göstermektedir. Ayrıca sabit sermaye yatırımları, kamu harcamaları, hanehalkı tüketimi ve ihracatın büyümeyi desteklediği; ithalatın ise büyümeyi zayıflattığı tespit edilmiştir. Sonuçlar, finansal sistemin bileşenlerinin ekonomik büyümeye farklı yön ve mekanizmalarla etki ettiğini ortaya koymakta ve politika yapıcıların finansal kalkınma stratejilerinde bu bileşenleri ayrı ayrı değerlendirmesi gerektiğini vurgulamaktadır. Çalışma, finansal gelişmişliğin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisini finansal kurumlar ve finansal piyasalar ayrımıyla ele alarak literatüre önemli bir metodolojik ve kavramsal katkı sunmaktadır. Mevcut çalışmaların çoğu, finansal gelişmeyi tek boyutlu bir endeks üzerinden değerlendirirken, bu çalışma iki bileşeni ayrı ayrı analiz ederek finans–büyüme ilişkisinin heterojen yapısını ortaya koymuştur. Ayrıca dinamik panel veri yaklaşımıyla geçmiş dönem etkilerini modele dâhil ederek, finansal gelişmenin büyüme üzerindeki zamana bağlı etkilerini incelemiş ve bu yönüyle önceki kesitsel analizlerden farklılaşmıştır. Geniş bir ülke örneklemi ve uzun bir zaman aralığı kapsaması bakımından, bulgular hem genellenebilirliği hem de yapısal dönüşüm süreçlerinin karşılaştırmalı değerlendirilmesini mümkün kılmaktadır. Bu çerçevede çalışma, finansal gelişmenin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkilerinin yalnızca yönünü değil, hangi kanallar aracılığıyla gerçekleştiğini de açıklayarak literatürdeki teorik ve ampirik boşluklara özgün bir katkı sağlamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Finansal gelişmişlik boyutları
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Arellano-Bond GMM

Assessing the Impact of Financial Institutions and Financial Markets on Economic Growth: Evidence from a Dynamic Panel Data Analysis

Öz

This study examines the impact of financial development on economic growth using data from 68 countries over the period 1990–2021. The analysis is framed around the expenditure components of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), with financial development measured through two sub-indices of the Financial Development Index: the Financial Institutions Development Index and the Financial Markets Development Index. To minimize the influence of short-term fluctuations, the data were converted into five-year averages, and the Arellano–Bond Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator was employed to account for lagged effects. The results reveal that the financial institutions index exerts a negative influence on economic growth, while the financial markets index has a positive and statistically significant impact. In addition, gross fixed capital formation, government expenditure, household consumption, and exports contribute positively to growth, whereas imports exert a dampening effect. These findings underscore the heterogeneous role of financial system components in shaping growth dynamics and emphasize the importance of evaluating them separately in designing financial development strategies. This research makes a substantive methodological and conceptual contribution to the existing literature by distinguishing between financial institutions and financial markets in assessing the finance–growth nexus. While most prior studies rely on a single-dimensional measure of financial development, this study disaggregates the index into its two structural components, thereby uncovering the multidimensional nature of the relationship. Furthermore, by employing a dynamic panel data framework that incorporates lagged effects, the study captures the temporal dimension of financial development’s influence on growth, setting it apart from conventional cross-sectional analyses. The broad country coverage and extended time horizon enhance the generalizability of the findings and enable a comparative evaluation of structural changes across different economies. Overall, the study contributes to literature not only by identifying the direction and magnitude of the relationship between financial development and growth but also by elucidating the underlying mechanisms through which this interaction occurs, thus addressing a key theoretical and empirical gap in the field.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Financial Development dimensions
• Economic Growth
• Arellano-Bond GMM

Kaynakça

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