Türkiye’deki Firmaların İhracat Sürekliliğinin Analizi ve Veri Madenciliği Yöntemi ile İhracatı Terk Etme Tahminlemesi

Öz

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de 2014-2023 döneminde ihracat faaliyeti yürüten firmalara ilişkin yaklaşık 20 milyon gözlemden oluşan firma düzeyindeki mikro veri setini kullanarak ihracat sürekliliğini, ürün ve pazar çeşitlendirmesini ve veri madenciliği yöntemleriyle ihracatı terk riskini incelemektedir. Çalışma, tanımlayıcı istatistiksel analizleri veri madenciliği temelli bir ihracat terk modeliyle bütünleştirerek, ihracatçı firmaların dış pazarlardaki kalıcılık dinamiklerine ilişkin kapsamlı bir ampirik çerçeve sunmaktadır. Bulgular, 2014-2023 döneminde en az bir kez ihracat yapan 276.140 firmanın yalnızca 19.979’unun kesintisiz ihracat gerçekleştirdiğini ve bu firmaların toplam ihracat değerinin %73,8’ini oluşturduğunu göstermektedir. Bu sonuç, ihracatçı tabanının niceliksel olarak genişlemesine rağmen ihracat sürekliliğinin sınırlı kaldığını ve ihracat performansının görece dar bir firma grubu etrafında yoğunlaştığını ortaya koymaktadır. Ölçek bazlı bulgular, ihracatçı sayısının mikro ve küçük ölçekli firmalarda yoğunlaştığını; buna karşılık ihracat değerinin ağırlıklı olarak orta ve büyük ölçekli firmalar tarafından üretildiğini göstermektedir. Ürün ve pazar çeşitlendirmesi bakımından ise yeni ürün çeşitlendirmesine yönelen firma sayısının yeni pazar çeşitlendirmesine kıyasla daha yüksek olduğu, ancak ihracat değeri açısından yeni pazar çeşitlendirmesinin daha güçlü bir katkı sunduğu tespit edilmiştir. Genel olarak bulgular, ihracatı bırakma riski taşıyan firmaların veri madenciliği yöntemleriyle önceden tespit edilmesine dayalı erken uyarı sistemlerinin ve bu sistemlerle desteklenen hedefli ticaret politikalarının, ihracatın sürdürülebilirliğinin güçlendirilmesinde stratejik bir politika aracı olarak değerlendirilebileceğine işaret etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Sürdürülebilir ihracat
• veri madenciliği
• ihracat terki

Etik Beyan

Bu makalede sunulan çalışma, etik kurul izni gerektiren herhangi bir insan veya hayvan araştırması içermemektedir. Araştırma, T.C. Ticaret Bakanlığı’nın idari kayıtlarından elde edilen ikincil veriler kullanılarak hazırlanmış; çalışma kapsamında bireyler üzerinde deneysel ya da gözlemsel bir uygulama gerçekleştirilmemiş, anket, görüşme veya benzeri yöntemlerle birincil veri toplanmamıştır. Yayında yer alan bulgular, yalnızca mevcut idari veriler üzerinde gerçekleştirilen analitik, istatistiksel ve veri madenciliği temelli hesaplamalara dayanmaktadır. Bu itibarla, çalışma için etik kurul onayına ihtiyaç bulunmamaktadır.

An Analysis of Export Persistence Among Firms in Türkiye and The Prediction of Export Exit Through Data Mining Methods

Öz

This study examines export continuity, product and market diversification, and export exit risk through data mining methods, using a firm-level micro dataset comprising approximately 20 million observations on exporting firms in Türkiye over the 2014–2023 period. By integrating descriptive statistical analysis with a data mining-based export exit model, the study provides a comprehensive empirical framework for understanding the persistence dynamics of firms in foreign markets. The findings show that, among 276,140 firms that exported at least once during the period under review, only 19,979 maintained uninterrupted export activity, while this group accounted for 73.8% of total export value. This indicates that, despite the quantitative expansion of the exporter base, export continuity remains limited and export performance is concentrated among a relatively narrow group of firms. The results by export scale further reveal that the number of exporters is concentrated in micro- and small-scale firm categories, whereas export value is predominantly generated by medium- and large-scale firms. Regarding product and market diversification, the number of firms engaging in new product diversification is higher than those entering new markets; however, in terms of export value, new market diversification appears to make a stronger contribution. Overall, the findings suggest that early warning systems based on the ex-ante identification of firms at risk of export exit through data mining techniques, together with targeted trade policies informed by such systems, may serve as strategic policy instruments for strengthening sustainable export performance.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Sustainable exports
• data mining
• export exit

Kaynakça

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