India’s Energy Route and Transit Pipelines Deadlocks in the Context of the Relations with Central Asia

Yıl 2021, , 3766 - 3793, 30.12.2021

Murat Yorulmaz

https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.1021690

Öz

India and Central Asia states that have common historical, religious and cultural inheritance have an expanding relationship plexus in the context of growing commercial activities, Central Asia’s growing wconomical potential and India’s soft power policies towards the region. It has been seen that the relevant relations started to gain depth before the Soviet period parochially. Hardly, it has been realized that although the progress the relationships between India and Central Asia states got slower in the period of the Soviet Union and following period, India’s ties with the region were not sheared nevermore. India tried to accelerate its relations with the region at diplomatic level aftermath of the Soviet Union particularly. The main two reasons of this phenomenon were Kashmis issue between India and Pakistan and India’s solitude in the international system after breaking of the Soviet Union. India and Central Asia are ingenous allies as well as they are strategic neighbours. Both sides are close to each other geographically and they are the parts of common history and cultural share. But, it is seen that India’s policies towards Central Asia have changed in the last decade on the base of its national interests and energy demand security by means of the transformation of Central Asia as a competition region of great powers. India – trying to be a partner of the competition in Central Asia – has challenges in the region such as energy issues with China, regional security with Russia, Muslims and secularism with Pakistan and being an active power with the U.S. It is realized that India – reverted to the region late in comparison with other actors – has increased its ties with region states and designated a foreign policy concept in the context of its geopolitic and geoeconomic interests in the last decade. In this context, the aim of the study is to analyze India-Central Asia relations, transit routes and India’s deadlocks in the region in terms of India’s increasing energy demand, energy security and its geopolitic and geoeconomic interests. According to the analysis in the study, it has realized that India has stated the region as an epicenter in terms of its energy security but has also realized that India has met dependency on neighboring countries and transit routes in the consequences of reasons like inadequate energy transmission lines, low economic development and indirect transportation to the region. This circumstance affects India’s energy security and cost adversely.

Anahtar Kelimeler

India, Central Asia, Energy Security, Energy Demand, Transit Routes

Orta Asya ile İlişkileri Bağlamında Hindistan’ın Enerji Rotası ve Transit Hatlar Çıkmazı

Öz

Tarihsel, dini ve kültürel ortak mirasa sahip Hindistan ve Orta Asya Devletleri günümüzde artan ticari faaliyetler, Orta Asya bölgesinin artan ekonomik potansiyeli ve bu bağlamda Hindistan’ın bölgeye yönelik uyguladığı yumuşak güç politikaları ile genişleyen bir ilişki ağına sahiptirler. Söz konusu ilişkilerin sınırlı seviyede olsa da SSCB öncesi dönemde derinlik kazanmaya başladığı görülmektedir. Ancak dönemsel olarak SSCB ve sonrası süreçte ilişkilerin seyri yavaşlasa da özellikle Hindistan’ın bölge devletleri ile bağının hiçbir zaman kesilmediği anlaşılmaktadır. Özellikle SSCB sonrası süreçte Hindistan bölge devletleri ile ilişkilerini diplomatik seviyede hızlandırmaya çalışmıştır. Bu durumun iki temel sebebi ise Hindistan ve Pakistan arasındaki Keşmir sorunu ve SSCB’nin dağılması sonrası değişen uluslararası sistemde Hindistan’ın yalnız kalmasıdır. Hindistan ve Orta Asya stratejik komşu olmakla birlikte doğal müttefiklik konumuna sahiptirler. Her iki taraf da coğrafi olarak birbirine çok yakın ve aynı zamanda ortak bir tarihin ve kültürel paylaşımın parçalarıdır. Ancak Orta Asya’nın büyük güçlerin rekabet alanına dönüşmesi ile Hindistan’ın da bölgeye yönelik politikalarının son on yıl içerisinde ulusal çıkarlar ve enerji talebi ile güvenliği temelinde değiştiği görülmektedir. Mevcut rekabete katılmaya çalışan Hindistan bölgede Çin ile enerji, Rusya ile bölgesel güvenlik, Pakistan ile Müslümanlar ve laiklik, ABD ile bölgede etkin güç olma gibi konularda zorluklarla karşı karşıyadır. Bölgeye diğer aktörlere nazaran geç intikal eden Hindistan’ın son on yılda bölge devletleri ile ilişkilerini arttırdığı, jeopolitik ve jeoekonomik çıkarları temelinde bir dış politika izlediği görülmektedir. Bu bağlamda çalışmanın amacı, Hindistan’ın enerji güvenliği ve artan enerji talebi ile jeopolitik ve jeoekonomik çıkarları bağlamında Orta Asya ile ilişkilerini, bölgelerarası transit nakil hatlar ve bölge üzerindeki çıkmazlarını analiz etmektir. Çalışmaya ilişkin analiz sonucunda Hindistan’ın enerji güvenliği adına Orta Asya bölgesini merkez üssü olarak belirlediği ancak ülke içindeki yetersiz nakil hatları, düşük seyirli ekonomik gelişim ve coğrafi açıdan bölgeye dolaylı ulaşımı gibi sebeplerle çevre ülkeler ve transit hatlar üzerinde bağımlılıkla karşı karşıya kaldığı görülmektedir. Bu durum da Hindistan’ın enerji maliyetini güvenlik ve ekonomik açıdan olumsuz etkilemektedir

Anahtar Kelimeler

Hindistan, Orta Asya, Enerji Güvenliği, Enerji Talebi, Transit Hatlar

Kaynakça

• Afghanistan Office of Economic Advisor, http://www.afghaneconomics. com/tapi. html (Erişim Tarihi: 12.06.2021).
• ANI (2018). ‘‘India, Kazakhstan agree to boost defence cooperation’’, 5 Ekim, https://www.aninews.in/news /world/ asia/ india-kazakhstan-agree-to-boost-defence-cooperation201810050431430002/ (Erişim Tarihi: 12.06.2021).
• Arif, M. and Gupta, K. (2013). ‘‘India and Central Asia: Towards A Co-operative Future’’, The Indian Journal of Political Science, 74(1): 137-144.
• Babajide, N. (2018). ‘‘Indian Energy Security Status: What are the Economic and Environmental Implications?’’, IEAA Energy Forum, https://www.iaee. org/en/publications/newsletterdl.aspx?id=469 (Erişim Tarihi: 15.06.2021).
• Bakry, A. H. (2016). ‘‘Prehistoric Contacts between Central Asia and India’’, Transactions of Margiana Archaeological Expedition. Vol. 6. To the Memory of Professor Victor Sarianidi / N.A. Dubova, (Ed.) E.V. Antonova, P.M. Kozhin, M.F. Kosarev, R.G. Muradov, Moscow, 422-435.
• Chaudhury, D. R. (2020). ‘‘India, Myanmar achieve concrete outcomes in energy, security, connectivity and health sectors’’, 5 Ekim, The Economic Times, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and nation /india-myanmar-achieve-concrete-outcomes-in-energy-security connectivity-and-healthsectors/articleshow /78497185.cms?utm_source=contentofinteres t&utm _medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst (Erişim Tarihi: 15.06.2021).
• Chaudhury, D. R. (2013). ‘‘Economic Relations with Central Asia: China steals a march, but India undeterred’’, 13 Ekim, The Economic Times, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/oil-gas/economic relations-with-central-asia-china-steals-a-march-butindiaundeterred/ articleshow/24055237.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&tm_medium= text&utm _campaign=cppst (Erişim Tarihi: 10.06.2021).
• Choudhary, S. (2020). ‘‘India’s crude oil import bill fell 9% to $102 billion in 2019-20’’, 01 Mayıs, The Economic Times, https://economictimes indiatimes .com/news/economy/foreign-trade/indias-crude-oil-import-bill-fell-9-to-102-billion-in-2019-20/articleshow/75473757.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest &utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst (Erişim Tarihi: 06.06.2021).
• Chowdhry, S. (1996). ‘‘Iran-Turkmenistan railway launched’’, 13 Mayıs, UPI, https://www.upi.com/Archives/1996/05/13/Iran-Turkmenistan-railway-launched/3801831960000/ (Erişim Tarihi: 28.06.2021).
• Das, P. Kr. (2014). ‘‘Central Asia: A New Avenue to India’s Future Energy Needs & Geo-Strategic Challenges’’, International Journal of Innovative & Development, 3(11): 48-56.
• Dash, P. L. (2000). ‘‘Pipeline Politics: Route Options for Central Asian Oil Trade’’, Economic&Political Weekly, September 9-15, 35(37): 3301-3303.
• EIA (Uluslararası Enerji Kurumu). (2020), ‘‘Kyrgyzstan Energy Profile’’, https://www.iea.org/reports/kyrgyzstan-energy-profile (Erişim Tarihi: 13.06.2021).
• EIA (Uluslararası Enerji Kurumu). (2020). ‘‘Uzbekistan Energy Profile’’, https://www.iea.org/reports/uzbekistan-energy-profile/energy-security (Erişim Tarihi:13.06.2021).
• Gogas, P. ve Papadimitriou, T. (2013). ‘‘The Burgas–Alexandroupolis Pipeline: Macroeconomic Impact for Greece’’, Sklias P. ve Tzifakis N. (eds.) Greece's Horizons. The Konstantinos Karamanlis Institute for Democracy Series on European and International Affairs. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-34534-0_15, 187-200.
• Hart, M. (2016). ‘‘Central Asia’s Oil and Gas Now Flows to the East’’, Ağustos 18, The Diplomat, https://thediplomat.com/ 2016/08/central-asias-oil-and-gas-now-flows-to-the-east/ (Erişim Tarihi: 07.06.2021).
• Jacob, J. (2015). ‘‘Five underlying themes of PM Modi's central Asia trip’’, 06 July, Hindustan Times, https://www. hindustantimes.com/india/five-underlying-themes-of-pm-modi-s-central-asia-trip/story-U1xVM2SjpU7bCQEnuJ3RnI. html (Erişim Tarihi: 10.05.2021).
• Jha, M. (2016). ‘‘India’s Connect Central Asia Policy’’, December 02, The Diplomat, https://thediplomat. com/ 2016/12/ indias-connect-central-asia-policy-2/ (Erişim Tarihi: 10.05.2021).
• Joshi, N. (2010). “Introduction”, Reconnecting India and Central Asia – Energy Security and Economic Dimensions, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program, 19-33, https://www.silkroadstudies .org/ resources /pdf/ Monographs/ 2010_03_MONO_Joshi_India-Central-Asia.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 31.05.2021).
• Kanitkar, T. (2020). ‘‘Is India Concerned about its Energy Security?’’, The India Forum, https://www.theindiaforum.in/article/india-concerned-about-its-energy-security (Erişim Tarihi: 15.06.2021).
• Katakey, R. (2013). ‘‘GAIL in talks with Uzbekistan for gas’’, 05 Şubat, Business Standard, https://www.business-standard.com/article/ companies/ gail-in-talks-with-uzbekistan-for-gas-107072201017_1.html (Erişim Tarihi: 13.06.2021).
• Kavalski, E. (2015). ‘‘India’s Bifurcated Look to ‘Central Eurasia’: The Central Asian Republics and Afghanistan’’, The Oxford Handbook of Indian Foreign Policy (Ed.) David M. Malone, C. Raja Mohan ve Srinath Raghavan, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2015.
• Kulkarnı, S. S. (2019). ‘‘Opportunities for India in Myanmar’s energy sector’’, 24 Ocak, ORF, https://www. orfonline.org/ expert-speak/opportunities-for-india-in-myanmars-energy-sector-47543/ (Erişim Tarihi: 15.06.2021).
• Ministry of Foreign Affairs Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, https://recca.af/ ?page_id=1468 (Erişim Tarihi: 12.06.2021).
• Mehendale, S. (1996). ‘‘Begram: along ancient Central Asian and Indian trade routes’’, Cahiers d’Asie centrale [Online], 1(2): 47-64.
• Menon, R. ve Rajiv, S. (2019). ‘‘Realizing India’s Strategic Interests in Central Asia’’, Carnegie INDIA, https://carnegieindia .org/2019/12/01/realizing-india-s-strategic-interests-in-central-asia-pub-80576 (Erişim Tarihi: 12.05.2021).
• Mordor Intelligence. (2020). ‘‘Uzbekistan Oil and Gas Market – Growth, Trends, Covid-19 Impact and Forecasts (2021-2026).
• Murthy, P. (1999). ‘‘The Gujral Doctrine and beyond’’, Strategic Analysis, 23(4): 639-652.
• ONGC (2021). ‘‘ONGC Videsh Limited – Working globally for the Energy Security of India’’, 5 Nisan, https://www. ongcindia.com /wps/wcm /connect/en/about-ongc/subsidiaries/ongc-videsh-limited/ (Erişim Tarihi: 12.06.2021).
• Pandey, S. (2007). ‘‘Indians in Central Asia’’, Diaspora Studies, 1(1): 17-30.
• Pradhan, R. (2021). ‘‘Energy Geopolitics and the New Great Game in Central Asia’’, Millennial Asia, First Published 4 May 2021, https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/09763996211003260 (Erişinm Tarihi: 14.06.2021).
• Pradhan, R. (2019). ‘‘The Energy Factor In India’s Central Asia Policy’’, World Affairs: The Journal of International Issues, 23(2): 126-139.
• Pirani, S. (2019). ‘‘Central Asian Gas: prospects for the 2020s’’, The Oxford Instıtute for Energy Studies, DOI: https://doi.org/10.26889/ 9781784671525, https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Central-Asian-Gas-NG-155.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 27.06.2021).
• Purtaş, F. (2006). ‘‘Avrasya’daki ‘Yeni Büyük Oyun’ Bağlamında Hindistan’ın Orta Asya Politikası’’, Orta Asya ve Kafkasya Araştırmaları Dergisi (OAKA), 1(2): 56-77.
• Putz, C. (2018). ‘‘Central Asia Gassing Up China’’, Kasım 7, The Diplomat, https://thediplomat.com/2018/11/central-asia-gassing-up-china/ (Erişim Tarihi: 07.06.2021).
• Rakhmankulova, Z., Choriev, Sh., Yusupova, D. ve Muminov, O. (2020). ‘‘The Historiography Of The Relations Between Central Asian Khanates And Ottoman Empire In The 19th And At The Beginning Of The 20th Centuries’’, International Journal of Scentific & Technology Research, 9(2): 311-318.
• Roche, E. (2015), ‘‘Narendra Modi’s visit brings Central Asia back in focus’’, 15 July, Mint, https://www.livemint.com/Politics/7iJD1gvVb9VWUo IiPLHjQK/Narendra-Modis-visit-brings-Central-Asia-back-in-focus.html (Erişim Tarihi: 10.05.2021).
• Sarsenbayev, B. (2019). ‘‘Kazakhstan and India move toward new horizons of cooperation’’, 29 Temmuz, https://astanatimes .com/2019/07/kazakhstan-and-india-move-toward-new-horizons-of-cooperation/ (Erişim Tarihi: 12.06.2021).
• Singh, A. K. (2015). ‘‘India and Central Asia: An Interpretation of Mutually Indelible Historical Relationship and its Multi Faceted Impact’’, International Journal of Interdisciplinary and Multidisciplinary Studies (IJIMS), 2(7): 61-72.
• Statista (2021). https://www.statista.com/statistics/625218/import-value-of-petroleum-india/ (Erişim Tarihi: 06.06.2021).
• Stobdan, P. (2004). ‘‘Central Asia and India’s Security’’, Strategic Analysis, 28(1): 54-83.
• Stobdan, P. (2015). ‘‘The Modi factor in Central Asia’’, 24 June, IDSA Issu Briefs, https://idsa.in/issuebrief/TheModifactorinCentralAsia_pstobdan_ 240714 (Erişim Tarihi: 10.05.2021).
• Verma, N. (2021). ‘‘OPEC’s share of Indian oil imports plunges to 2 decade low – trade’’, 03 Mayıs 2021, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/ world/ india /opecs-share-indian-oil-imports-plunges-2-decade-low-trade-2021-05-03/ (Erişim Tarihi: 06.06.2021).
• Xu, Z., Niu, Y., Liang, Y., Li, Z., & Iftikhor, A. (2020). ‘‘The Integrated Hydropower Sustainability Assessment in Tajikistan: A Case Study of Rogun Hydropower Plant’’, Hindawi Advances in Civil Engineering, Vol. 2020, https://www.hindawi.com/journals/ace/2020/8894072/ (Erişim Tarihi: 13.06.2020).