How Will Turkey-EU Trade Relations Change after the Ukraine-Russia War?

Yıl 2022, , 1198 - 1215, 30.06.2022

Volkan Sezgin

https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.1090260

Cited By: 1

Öz

The Ukraine-Russia war continues to threaten international trade and global supply chains. This paper aims to compare Ukraine-EU and EU-Turkey trade relations in order to find out whether Turkey’s exports can replace Ukrainian products in the EU market during or after the conflict, and whether this will have also a positive impact on the modernization efforts of the EU-Turkey Customs Union (CU) Agreement. For this purpose, we analyzed Turkey-EU and EU-Ukraine trade figures between 2017 and 2021 using TradeMap and UN ComTrade data. To date, there are no major studies concentrated on how Turkish trade relations with the EU may change if Ukraine would not be able to supply to the EU market for a long time due to the war, leaving certain gaps requiring further attention. For our analysis, we firstly checked top 100 export products of Turkey and Ukraine to the EU in 2021. We determined the shares of Turkish and Ukrainian products in EU 27’s imports and took into account of the products whose shares have been more than 1 percent in the EU’s imports from the world. Our findings show that Turkish exports might replace Ukrainian exports targeting EU particularly in five main product groups. We identified that Turkish-origin two iron and steel (Harmonized Tariff Schedules (HTS) 7208, 7209), one agriculture (HTS 0802), and two electrical machinery and equipment (HTS 8544 and 8516) have the advantage in the EU market to gain some of Ukrainian market share, while the competition will be severe with other suppliers like China. According to our analysis, the war could have triggered the pace of the CU agreement renovation works to speed up if the EU would depend more on Turkish goods (especially agricultural, textiles, machinery and selected iron and steel products) to replace Ukrainian products in EU markets while EU would feel the need to turn to Turkish items to meet the domestic demand. Our study reveals that this appears not likely in the current situation.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ukraine-Russia War, Bilateral Trade Dependence, European Union, Customs Union, Ukraine, Turkey

Türkiye-AB Ticari İlişkileri Ukrayna-Rusya Savaşı Sonrası Nasıl Değişecek?

Öz

Ukrayna-Rusya savaşı, uluslararası ticareti ve küresel tedarik zincirlerini tehdit etmeye devam etmektedir. Bu makale, ihtilaf sırasında ve sonrasında Türkiye'nin ihracatının AB pazarındaki Ukrayna ürünlerinin yerini alıp alamayacağını ve bunun AB-Türkiye Gümrük Birliği (GB) Anlaşması'nın yenileme çabaları üzerinde olumlu bir etkisi olup olmayacağını değerlendirebilmek için her iki ülkenin AB ile olan ticari ilişkilerini karşılaştırmayı amaçlamaktadır. Bu amaçla, TradeMap ve UN ComTrade verileri kullanılarak, 2017 ve 2021 yılları arasında Türkiye-AB ve AB-Ukrayna ticareti analiz edilmiştir. Bugüne dek, savaş nedeniyle Ukrayna'nın uzun bir süre AB pazarına ürün tedarik edemeyecek olması durumunda Türkiye'nin AB ile ticari ilişkilerinin nasıl değişebileceğine dair ayrıntılı bir çalışma yapılmamış, bu da literatürde bazı boşluklar bırakmıştır. Söz konusu analiz için öncelikle 2021 yılında Türkiye ve Ukrayna'nın AB'ye en çok ihraç ettiği 100 ürünü incelenmiş, Türk ve Ukrayna menşeli ürünlerinin AB 27'nin ithalatındaki paylarını belirlenmiş ve AB'deki payı yüzde 1'den fazla olan ürünler dikkate alınmıştır. Bulgularımız, Türkiye ihracatının özellikle beş ana üründe AB'deki Ukrayna ihracatının yerini alabileceğini göstermektedir. Türk menşeli İki demir-çelik (Gümrük Tarife İstatistik pozisyonu (GTIP) 7208, 7209), bir tarım (GTIP 0802) ve iki elektrikli makine ve ekipmanın (GTIP 8544 ve 8516) AB pazarında Ukrayna pazar payının bir kısmını elde etme avantajına sahip olduğu, ancak Çin gibi diğer tedarikçi ülkelerle rekabetin de zor olacağı belirlenmiştir. Analizimize göre, AB ekonomisi Ukrayna menşeli ürünlerin yerini alabilecek Türk mallarına (özellikle tarım, tekstil, makine ve seçilmiş demir-çelik ürünleri) daha fazla bağımlı olsaydı, iç talebi karşılamak için Türk ürünlerine yönelme ihtimali halinde savaşın GB Anlaşması’nın yenilenme çalışmalarını hızlandırabileceği değerlendirilebilirdi ancak araştırmamız bunun hâlihazırda mümkün görünmediğini ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ukrayna-Rusya Savaşı, Karşılıklı Ticari Bağımlılık, Avrupa Birliği, Gümrük Birliği, Ukrayna, Türkiye

Kaynakça

• Abdelaaziz, A., Azaroual, F., Oumayma, B., and Uri, D. (2022). The Economic Implications of the War in Ukraine for Africa and Morocco. Policy Center for the New South, Policy Brief No. 11/22.
• Altay, S. (2021). Remolding Turkey-EU Relations: The ‘Swiss Model’ of Differentiated Integration as an Alternative to the Customs Union? Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi , 76 (2) , 493-521.
• Astrov V., Grieveson R., Kochnev A., Landesmann M., and Pindyuk O. (2022). Possible Russian Invasion of Ukraine, Scenarios for Sanctions, and Likely Economic Impact on Russia, Ukraine, and the EU. The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, Policy Notes and Reports 55.
• Dongyu, Q. (2022). New Scenarios on Global Food Security Based on Russia-Ukraine Conflict. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Brief.
• European Commission (2022). Trade Policy-Ukraine. Retrieved From: https://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/countries/ukraine/ [Accessed March 1, 2022]
• Ezeani, E. (2022). From a Covid-19 Pandemic to War? Presented at 2022, Robert Gordon University (RGU) Law Research Seminar, Aberdeen, UK.
• Glauber J., and Laborde D. (2022). How will Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Affect Global Food Security? International Food Policy Research Institute, IFPRI Blog.
• Gstöhl, S. (2015). Models of External Differentiation in the EU's Neighborhood: An Expanding Economic Community? Journal of European Public Policy, 22(6): 854-870
• ITC (2022). International Trade Center, Trade Statistics. Access: http://www.itcturkiye.com/tr. [Accessed March 3, 2022]
• Korhonen, L., and Simola, H. (2022). How Important are Russia's External Economic Links? Bank of Finland, Policy Brief, No. 2.
• Lang, T., and McKee, M. (2022). The Reinvasion of Ukraine Threatens Global Food Supplies. BMJ, 376.
• Liadze I., Macchiarelli C., Mortimer-Lee P., and Juanino, P.S. (2022). The Economic Cost of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict. National Institute of Economic and Social Research, Policy Paper no. 32.
• McCabe, S. (2022). Russia’s Attack on Ukraine, a Defining Moment? Birmingham City University Centre for Brexit Studies, Blog.
• Muftuler-Bac, M. (2017). Turkey’s Future with the European Union: An alternative Model of Differentiated Integration”, Turkish Studies, 18(3): 416-438.
• Oxford Analytica (2022). War in Ukraine will Increase Turkey’s Isolation. Expert Briefings.
• Oxford Analytica (2022). Russian Invasion of Ukraine will Hurt Turkish Economy. Expert Briefings.
• Papanikos G.T. (2022). Europe, Ukraine and Russia: What is really at Stake? Athens Institute for Education and Research (ATINER), Working Paper, No 04/2022.
• Patterson, W. (2022). Russia-Ukraine Conflict: What it Means for Grain and Oilseed Markets. ING, Series.
• Paulson, N., Janzen J., Zulauf, C., Swanson, K., and Schnitkey, G. (2022). Revisiting Ukraine, Russia, and Agricultural Commodity Markets. Farmdoc Daily, 12: 27, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
• Rabinovych, M. (2022). EU-Ukraine “Deep” Trade Agenda: The Effectiveness and Impact Perspectives. International Politics.
• Redeker, N. (2022). Same Shock, Different Effects. Hertie School Policy Brief, No. 0307.
• Schiffling, S., and Kanellos, N. (2022). Five Essential Commodities that will be Hit by War in Ukraine. The Conversation. Brief.
• Sezgin, V., and Sezgin, O. (2020). An Analysis on the Impacts of the Economic Recommendations of the EU over Turkish Trade and Investments. Turkish Studies - Economy, 15(4), 2407-2428.
• Trademap (2022). Trade Statistics. Retrieved From: https://www.trademap.org/Index.aspx. [Accessed February 27, 2022]
• TUIK (2022). Turkish Statistical Institute Foreign Trade Statistics. Retrieved From: https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Kategori/GetKategori?p= Foreign-Trade-104. [Accessed March 5, 2022]
• UN ComTrade (2022). Trade Statistics. Retrieved From: https://comtrade.un.org/data/. [Accessed February 5, 2022]
• USDA. (n.d.). Grain: World Markets and Trade. USDA Foreign Agricultural Service. Retrieved from https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/grain-world-markets-and-trade [Accessed on February 25, 2022]
• War May Provide Advantage for Turkish Steel Exports in Medium Term. (2022). Steel Orbis. Retrieved from https://www.steelorbis.com/steel-news/latest-news/ugur-dalbeler-war-may-provide-advantage-for-turkeys-steel-exports-in-medium-term-1236579.htm [Accessed on March 12, 2022]
• Yanovskiy, K. (2022). Learning the Lessons from the Ukrainian War for Israel Economic Policies: We Can’t Afford More Economic Nonsense. SSRN, Depository.