An Examination of the Asymmetric Effects of Financial Indicators on Exports and Imports Sustainability: An Empirical Study on Türkiye

Fatih Selamcı; Gencay Karakaya; İrfan Ersin

doi:10.15869/itobiad.1954455

EN TR

Öz

An Examination of the Asymmetric Effects of Financial Indicators on Exports and Imports Sustainability: An Empirical Study on Türkiye

Öz

With globalization, the interaction between financial markets and the real sector has become one of the fundamental determinants of macroeconomic stability. Fluctuations observed in financial markets play a direct role not only in monetary variables but also in the balance of foreign trade and economic growth dynamics. The process defined as financialization increases the sensitivity of foreign trade performance to financial shocks in developing economies. Key financial indicators such as exchange rate regimes, capital mobility, and the liquidity structure of the banking sector constitute a critical threshold for export competitiveness and import financing. Unlike traditional linear models, the fact that the effects of financial variables on the real sector differ according to positive and negative shocks highlights the importance of asymmetric analyses. In this context, the creation of asymmetric shocks through global trade channels by changes in financial indicators necessitates an in-depth analysis of these effects for a sustainable foreign trade structure. This study examines the asymmetric effects of selected financial indicators on export-import sustainability in Turkiye. The asymmetric effects of financial indicators such as banking sector profitability, real effective exchange rate, weighted average funding cost, and the Borsa Istanbul-100 index on export-import sustainability were analyzed using the Hatemi-J asymmetric causality method for the period 2010:1–2023:12. The study identified asymmetric causal relationships from exchange rate, banking sector profitability, money supply, and consumer price index to imports and exports. In this context, it is emphasized that the correct selection of monetary and exchange rate policies is crucial to mitigate the negative consequences of asymmetric effects. Based on these findings, it is assessed that the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkiye should expand its macroprudential policies that take asymmetry into account to establish financial stability and protect the sustainability of foreign trade.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Exports, Imports, Financial Indicators, Hatemi-J Asymmetric Causality Test, Türkiye

Finansal Göstergelerin İhracat ve İthalat Sürdürülebilirliği Üzerindeki Asimetrik Etkilerinin İncelenmesi: Türkiye Üzerine Ampirik Bir Araştırma

Öz

Küreselleşmeyle birlikte finansal piyasalar ve reel sektör arasındaki etkileşim, makroekonomik istikrarın temel belirleyicilerinden biri haline gelmiştir. Finansal piyasalarda gözlemlenen dalgalanmalar, yalnızca parasal değişkenler üzerinde değil, dış ticaret dengesi ve ekonomik büyüme dinamikleri üzerinde de doğrudan belirleyici rol oynamaktadır. Finansallaşma olarak tanımlanan bu süreç, gelişmekte olan ekonomilerde dış ticaret performansının finansal şoklara karşı hassasiyetini artırmaktadır. Özellikle döviz kuru rejimleri, sermaye hareketliliği ve bankacılık sektörünün likidite yapısı gibi temel finansal göstergeler, ihracatın rekabet gücü ve ithalatın finansmanı üzerinde kritik bir eşik oluşturmaktadır. Finansal değişkenlerin reel sektör üzerindeki etkilerinin pozitif ve negatif şoklara göre farklılık göstermesi, asimetrik analizlerin önemini ortaya koymaktadır. Bu bağlamda, finansal göstergelerdeki değişimlerin küresel ticaret kanalları aracılığıyla asimetrik şoklar yaratması, sürdürülebilir bir dış ticaret yapısı için bu etkilerin derinlemesine analiz edilmesini zorunlu kılmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye'de seçilmiş finansal göstergelerin ihracat ve ithalat sürdürülebilirliği üzerindeki asimetrik etkileri incelenmektedir. Bankacılık sektörü kârlılığı, reel efektif döviz kuru, ağırlıklı ortalama fonlama maliyeti ve BIST 100 endeksi gibi finansal göstergelerin ihracat ve ithalat sürdürülebilirliği üzerindeki asimetrik etkileri 2010:1–2023:12 dönemi için Hatemi-J asimetrik nedensellik yöntemi ile analiz edilmiştir. Çalışma sonucunda döviz kuru, bankacılık sektörü kârlılığı, M2 ve TÜFE’den ithalat ve ihracata doğru asimetrik nedensellikler tespit edilmiştir. Bu kapsamda, asimetrik etkilerin olumsuz sonuçlarını azaltmak için para ve döviz politikalarının doğru seçilmesinin önemi vurgulanmaktadır. Bu doğrultuda TCMB’nin finansal istikrarın tesisi ve dış ticaret sürdürülebilirliğinin korunması adına asimetriyi dikkate alan makro ihtiyati politikaları genişletmesi gerektiği değerlendirilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

İhracat, İthalat, Finansal Göstergeler, Hatemi-J Asimetrik Nedensellik Testi, Türkiye

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Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil

İngilizce

Konular

Makro İktisat (Diğer), Finansal Ekonomi, Uluslararası İktisat (Diğer), Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma

Bölüm

Araştırma Makalesi

Yazarlar

Fatih Selamcı ^*
0000-0002-7017-9056
Türkiye

Gencay Karakaya
0000-0002-2662-6031
Türkiye

İrfan Ersin
0000-0002-7407-3654
Türkiye

Yayımlanma Tarihi

30 Eylül 2026

Gönderilme Tarihi

19 Mayıs 2026

Kabul Tarihi

23 Eylül 2026

Yayımlandığı Sayı

Yıl 2026 Cilt: 15 Sayı: 3

DOI

https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.1954455

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA56RS73KP

APA

Selamcı, F., Karakaya, G., & Ersin, İ. (2026). An Examination of the Asymmetric Effects of Financial Indicators on Exports and Imports Sustainability: An Empirical Study on Türkiye. İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi, 15(3), 2646-2672. https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.1954455

AMA

1.Selamcı F, Karakaya G, Ersin İ. An Examination of the Asymmetric Effects of Financial Indicators on Exports and Imports Sustainability: An Empirical Study on Türkiye. itobiad. 2026;15(3):2646-2672. doi:10.15869/itobiad.1954455

Chicago

Selamcı, Fatih, Gencay Karakaya, ve İrfan Ersin. 2026. “An Examination of the Asymmetric Effects of Financial Indicators on Exports and Imports Sustainability: An Empirical Study on Türkiye”. İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi 15 (3): 2646-72. https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.1954455.

EndNote

Selamcı F, Karakaya G, Ersin İ (01 Eylül 2026) An Examination of the Asymmetric Effects of Financial Indicators on Exports and Imports Sustainability: An Empirical Study on Türkiye. İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi 15 3 2646–2672.

IEEE

[1]F. Selamcı, G. Karakaya, ve İ. Ersin, “An Examination of the Asymmetric Effects of Financial Indicators on Exports and Imports Sustainability: An Empirical Study on Türkiye”, itobiad, c. 15, sy 3, ss. 2646–2672, Eyl. 2026, doi: 10.15869/itobiad.1954455.

ISNAD

Selamcı, Fatih - Karakaya, Gencay - Ersin, İrfan. “An Examination of the Asymmetric Effects of Financial Indicators on Exports and Imports Sustainability: An Empirical Study on Türkiye”. İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi 15/3 (01 Eylül 2026): 2646-2672. https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.1954455.

JAMA

1.Selamcı F, Karakaya G, Ersin İ. An Examination of the Asymmetric Effects of Financial Indicators on Exports and Imports Sustainability: An Empirical Study on Türkiye. itobiad. 2026;15:2646–2672.

MLA

Selamcı, Fatih, vd. “An Examination of the Asymmetric Effects of Financial Indicators on Exports and Imports Sustainability: An Empirical Study on Türkiye”. İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi, c. 15, sy 3, Eylül 2026, ss. 2646-72, doi:10.15869/itobiad.1954455.

Vancouver

1.Fatih Selamcı, Gencay Karakaya, İrfan Ersin. An Examination of the Asymmetric Effects of Financial Indicators on Exports and Imports Sustainability: An Empirical Study on Türkiye. itobiad. 01 Eylül 2026;15(3):2646-72. doi:10.15869/itobiad.1954455

İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi Creative Commons Atıf-GayriTicari 4.0 Uluslararası Lisansı (CC BY NC) ile lisanslanmıştır.

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An Examination of the Asymmetric Effects of Financial Indicators on Exports and Imports Sustainability: An Empirical Study on Türkiye

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Finansal Göstergelerin İhracat ve İthalat Sürdürülebilirliği Üzerindeki Asimetrik Etkilerinin İncelenmesi: Türkiye Üzerine Ampirik Bir Araştırma

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