The Effect of Tax Structure on Investment in Selected Transition Countries and Turkey: Panel Data Analysis

Yıl 2020, , 2179 - 2200, 30.09.2020

Melek Akdoğan-gedik , Tuğay Günel

https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.730080

Öz

Taxation policy, which has an important place among fiscal policy tools, is among the multiple study subjects of many disciplines in terms of its sociological, psychological, economic, and political effects. There are researches that especially in the economic literature, tax policies affect economic variables such as consumption, savings, investment, employment, income distribution, and tax policies have an important role in the growth and development of the country's economy on a macro scale. In this study, the effect of tax structure on investment in Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Turkey are investigated by the panel data analysis for the period 1998-2017. The study differs from similar studies in three respects. First, the relationship between investment and tax structure is not analyzed in terms of a single tax or a specific tax. Secondly, in the analysis, taxes are examined in terms of many taxes, and their effects on investments are investigated. Thirdly, it aims to contribute to the literature by analyzing the relationship between investment and tax structure in terms of linear and non-linear relations. In the study, a negative and nonlinear relationship was found between tax types and investments. In addition, the tax thresholds that maximize and minimize investments have been calculated through estimated regressions. Accordingly, the values of corporate tax and income tax that minimize investments were found to be 1,597 and 7,793, respectively. The values of value added tax and wealth tax that maximize investments were found to be 12,80 and 1,15, respectively. Finding optimal values between taxes and investments is important in terms of the composition and quantity of the tax policy to be applied to encourage investments.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Tax Structure, Tax Types, Investment, Transition Countries, Panel Data Analysis

Seçilmiş Geçiş Ekonomileri ve Türkiye’ de Vergi Türlerinin Yatırımlar Üzerindeki Etkisi: Panel Veri Analizi

Öz

Maliye politikası araçları arasında önemli bir yere sahip olan vergileme politikası yarattığı sosyolojik, psikolojik, ekonomik ve siyasi etkileri bakımından birçok disiplinin çoklu inceleme konusu arasında yer almaktadır. Özellikle iktisadi yazında vergi politikaların tüketim, tasarruf, yatırım, istihdam, gelir dağılımı gibi iktisadi değişkenleri etkilediğine dair ve ülke ekonomisinin makro ölçekte büyüme ve kalkınmasında önemli payı olduğuna ilişkin araştırmalar söz konusudur. Çalışmada geçiş ülkeleri niteliğinde olan Çekya, Estonya, Macaristan, Litvanya, Letonya, Polonya, Slovakya, Slovenya ve Türkiye’de vergi türleri ile yatırımlar arasındaki ilişki 1998-2017 dönemi için panel sabit etkiler analiz yöntemiyle araştırılmıştır. Çalışma üç açıdan benzer çalışmalardan farklılık göstermektedir. İlk olarak yatırım ve vergi yapısı arasındaki ilişki tek bir vergi veya özel bir vergi açısından analiz edilmemektedir. İkincisi, analizde vergiler birçok vergi açısından ele alınarak yatırımlara etkisi araştırılmaktadır. Üçüncüsü, yatırım ve vergi yapısı arasındaki ilişkiyi doğrusal ve doğrusal olmayan ilişki açısından analiz ederek literatüre katkı vermeyi amaçlamaktadır. Çalışmada vergi türleri ile yatırımlar arasında negatif ve doğrusal olmayan bir ilişkinin varlığı tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca yatırımları maksimum ve minimum kılan vergi eşik değerleri de tahmin edilen regresyonlar aracılığı ile hesaplanmıştır. Buna göre yatırımları minimize eden kurumlar vergisi ve gelir vergisinin değerleri sırasıyla 1,597 ve 7,793 bulunmuştur. Yatırımları maksimize eden katma değer vergisi ve servet üzerinden alınan vergilerin değerleri sırasıyla 12,80 ve 1,15 bulunmuştur. Vergiler ile yatırımlar arasında optimal değerlerin bulunması yatırımları teşvik etmek için uygulanacak olan vergi politikasının bileşimi ve niceliği açısından önem arz etmektedir. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

vergi yapısı, vergi türleri, yatırımlar, geçiş ülkeleri, Panel Veri Analizi

Kaynakça

• Afonso, A. ve Jalles, J. T. (2015). How Does Fiscal Policy Affect Investment? Evidence from a Large Panel. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 4, pp. 310-327. Afonso, A. ve St.Aubyn, M. (2009).Macroeconomic Rates of Return of Public and Private Investment:Crowding-in and Crowding-out Effects. The Manchester School, 77:21-39. Alvarez, L. H. ve Koskela, E. (2008). Progressive Taxation, Tax Exemption, and Irreversible Investment Under Uncertainty. Journal of Public Economic Theory, 10(1), 149-169. Alves, J. (2018) The Impact of Tax Structure on Investment : An Empirical Assessment for OECD Countries REM Working Paper Series 058, Portugal Arnold, J. (2008). Do Tax Structures Affect Aggregate Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries. OECD EconomicsDepartment Working Papers, No. 643. Bond, S. ve Xing, J.(2015). Corporate Taxation and Capital Accumulation: Evidence from Sectoral Panel Data for 14 OECD Countries. Journal of Public Economics, 130, pp. 15-31. Brandstetter, L. ve Jacob, M. (2013). Do Corporate Tax Cuts Increase Investments? Berlin: Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre Cass, D.(1965). Optimum Growth in an Aggregative Model of Capital Accumulation. The Review of Economic Studies, 32(3):233-240. Da Rin, M., Di Giacomo, M. ve Sembenelli, A., (2011). Entrepreneurship, Firm Entry, and the Taxation of Corporate Income: Evidence from Europe. Journal of Public Economics, 95(9), pp. 1048-1066. Djankov, S., Ganser, T., Mc Liesh, C., Ramalho, R., ve Shleifer, A. (2010). The Effect of Corporate Taxes on Investment and Entrepreneurship. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2(3), 31-64. Dreßler, D. (2012). The Impact of Corporate Taxes on Investment-An Explanatory Empirical Analysis for Interested Practitioners. Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) ftp://ftp.zew.de/pub/zew-docs/dp/dp12040.pdf Edame, G. E. ve Okoi, W. W. (2014). The impact of taxation on investment and economic development in Nigeria. Academic Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, 3(4), 209. Feldstein, M. (1976). Personal Taxation and Portfolio Composition: An Econometric Analysis. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, p. 631-650. Gemmell, N., Kneller, R., McGowan, D., Sanz, I. ve Sanz‐Sanz, J. F. (2018). Corporate Taxation and Productivity Catch‐Up: Evidence from European Firms. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 120(2), 372-399. Grdinic, M., Drezgic, S. ve Blazic, H., (2017). An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship Between Tax Structures and Economic Growth in CEE Countries. Ekonomski časopis, pp. 426-447. Jacob, M., Michaely, R. ve Müller, M. A.,(2017). Consumption Taxes and Corporate Investment. The Review of Financial Studies, pp. 1-39 Koopmans, T. C. (1963). On the Concept of Optimal Economic Growth. Technical Report 163, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University. Langenmayr, D., Haufler, A. ve Bauer, C. J., (2015). Should Tax Policy Favor High- or Low-Productivity Firms?. European Economic Review, 73(Supplement C), pp. 18-34. Lee, Y. ve Gordon, R. H. (2005). Tax Structure and Economic Growth. Journal of Public Economics, 89(5-6), pp. 1027-1043. Ljungqvist, A. Ve Smolyansky, M.(2016). To Cut or Not to Cut? On the Impact of Corporate Taxes on Employment and Income. Massachussets: National Bureau of Economic Research. Ljungqvist, A., Zhang, L. ve Zuo, L.( 2017). Sharing Risk with the Government: How Taxes Affect Corporate Risk Taking. Journal of Accounting Research, 55(3), pp. 669-707 Mertens, K. ve Ravn, M. O.(2012). Empirical Evidence on the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated US Tax Policy Shocks. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 4(2), pp. 145-181. Mukherjee, A., Singh, M. ve Žaldokas, A. (2017). Do Corporate Taxes Hinder Innovation? Journal of Financial Economics, 124(1), pp. 195-221. Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. CESifo Working Paper 1229; IZA Discussion Paper 1240. Pombo, C. ve Galindo, A. J.(2011). Corporate Taxation, Investment and Productivity: A Firm Level Estimation. Investment and Productivity: A Firm Level Estimation Ramsey,F.P.(1928). A Mathematical Theory of Saving. The Economic Journal, 38(152):543-559. Romer, C. D. ve Romer, D. H. (2010). The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks. American Economic Review, 100(3), pp. 763-801. Santoro, M. ve Wei, C. (2012). A Note on the Impact of Progressive Dividend Taxation on Investment Decisions. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 16(2), 309-319. Sentance, A. (2012). “Regression Analysis of Taxation, Economic Growth and Foreign Direct Investment”, PwC. https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/paying-taxes/assets/economic-analysis-andrew-sentance.pdf Solow, R.M.(1956). A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1):65{94. Swan,T.W.(1956).Economic Growth and Capital Accumulation. Economic Record, 32(2):334-361. Şaşmaz, M.Ünsal ve Yayla, Y. E.(2019). Vergilerin Makroekonomik Etkilerinin Değerlendirilmesine Yönelik Bir Literatür İncelemesi. Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi Sayı :41 Sf.317-328 Tatoğlu, F.Y.(2013), Panel Veri Ekonometrisi, 2. Baskı, Beta yayıncılık, İstanbul. Vartia, L. (2008). How Do Taxes Affect Investment and Productivity?-An Industry-Level Analysis of OECD Countries. OECD Economic Department Working Papers, (656), 0_1. Verbič, M. ve Črnigoj, M. (2014). Corporate Investment and Corporate Taxation During the Economic Crisis in Slovenia. Eastern European Economics, 52 (6): 32-56. Vergara, R. (2010). Taxation and Private Investment: Evidence for Chile. Applied Economics, 42(6), 717-725. Xing, J.(2010). Does Tax Structure Affect Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence from OECD Countries. Oxford University for Business Taxation,WP11/20, pp. 1-56.