Türkiye’de Phillips Eğrisi’nin Geçerliliğinin Fourier Eşbütünleşme ve Fourier Nedensellik Testleri ile Analizi

Yıl 2021, , 3173 - 3190, 30.12.2021

Şaduman Yıldız

https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.918514

Cited By: 3

Öz

Bir ülke ekonomisinin en önemli başarı ölçütleri arasında enflasyon ve işsizlik göstergeleri yer almaktadır. Nitekim enflasyon ve işsizlik oranlarının artması ülkelerin refah düzeylerini azalttığı için politika yapıcılar hem enflasyonun hem de işsizliğin düşük düzeylerde kalmasını amaçlamakta ve bu doğrultuda para ve maliye politikalarını yapmaktadırlar. Makroekonomi literatüründe enflasyon ile işsizlik arasındaki ilişkiyi ortaya koyan Phillips Eğrisi’ne göre, enflasyon arttığı zaman işsizlik azalırken enflasyon azalırken ise işsizlik artmakta yani enflasyon ile işsizlik arasında ters yönlü bir ilişki bulunmaktadır. Bu bağlamda ekonomide Phillips eğrisinin geçerli olması durumunda uygulanacak politikalar ile hem enflasyona hem de işsizliğe aynı anda çözüm bulmak mümkün olmamaktadır.
Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de 2006:01 – 2020: 11 dönemi için en önemli ekonomik sorunlar arasında yer alan enflasyon ile işsizlik arasındaki ilişkiyi araştırarak Phillips eğrisinin geçerli olup olmadığını ortaya koymaktır. Bu amaç doğrultusunda ilk olarak Fourier ADF ve Fourier KPSS analizleri yapılarak ele alınan değişkenlerin düzeyde durağan olmadıkları ve birinci farklarında durağan oldukları sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Daha sonra yapılan Fourier eşbütünleşme analizi ile değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli ilişkinin olmadığı belirlenmiştir. Son olarak Single Fourier-Frequency Toda & Yamamoto nedensellik analizi yapılarak değişkenler arasındaki kısa dönemli ilişkinin olup olmadığı ortaya konulmaya çalışılmıştır. Yapılan nedensellik analizi sonuçlara göre, hem enflasyondan işsizliğe hem de işsizlikten enflasyona doğru nedensellik ilişkisi olmadığı görülmüş olup enflasyondaki değişimlerin işsizlik üzerinde ve işsizlikteki değişimlerin ise enflasyon üzerinde kısa dönemde etkili olmadığı ortaya konulmuştur. Bu bağlamda enflasyon ile işsizlik arasında ters yönlü ilişki olduğunu ileri süren Phillips eğrisinin Türkiye için ele alınan dönem ve yapılan analizler çerçevesinde geçerli olmadığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Enflasyon, İşsizlik, Phillips Eğrisi, Fourier Durağanlık, Fourier Eşbütünleşme, Fourier Nedensellik

The Analysis of the Validity of the Phillips Curve in Turkey via the Fourier Cointegration and Causality Tests

Öz

Inflation and unemployment indicators are among the most significant success criteria of a country’s economy. Thus, since the increase in inflation and unemployment rates decreases the welfare levels of countries, policymakers aim to keep both inflation and unemployment at low levels and establish their monetary and fiscal policies accordingly. According to the Phillips curve, which reveals the correlation between inflation and unemployment in the macroeconomic literature, an increase in inflation leads to a decrease in unemployment, and while inflation decreases, unemployment increases, which indicates an inverse correlation between inflation and unemployment. In this respect, it is not possible to find a solution for both inflation and unemployment simultaneously with the policies to be implemented if the Phillips curve is valid in the economy.
This study aims to reveal whether the Phillips curve is valid or not by investigating the correlation between inflation and unemployment, which were among the most important economic problems within the 2006:01 – 2020:11 period in Turkey. In line with this purpose, the Fourier ADF and Fourier KPSS analyses were carried out first, and it was concluded that the relevant variables were not stationary at the level, and they were stationary in their first differences. With the Fourier cointegration analysis conducted later, no long-run correlations between the variables were determined. Finally, the Single Fourier-Frequency Toda & Yamamoto causality analysis was carried out, and it was attempted to reveal whether there was a short-run correlation between the variables. According to the results of the causality analysis, no causality correlations were observed both from inf to unemp and from unemp to inf, and it was revealed that changes in inflation did not influence unemployment, and changes in unemployment did not influence inflation in the short run. In this context, it was concluded that the Phillips curve, suggesting an inverse correlation between inflation and unemployment, was not valid for Turkey within the framework of the period considered and the analyses performed. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

Inflation, Unemployment, The Phillips Curve, Fourier Stationarity, Fourier Cointegration, Fourier Causality

Kaynakça

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