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The Relationship between Worker Remittances and Imports: The Case of Turkey

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 3, 2603 - 2616, 30.09.2021
https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.862616

Öz

Workers escape from higher unemployment and poverty rates in the less developed or developing countries to developed countries with the aim of having a higher income and a better job. Workers sent remittances to their families left behind in their home countries and these remittances provide foreign currency by transferring the income from developed countries to the less developed countries. So, worker remittances improve the economic growth of home county through the saving-investment channel. Worker remittances also effect the home country’s economy and worker’s families through different channels. The first of them is the increase of consumption, education and health expenditures of the worker’s families as a result of remittance inflows. The aggregate demand also increase with the multiplier effect of consumption expenditures. But remittances cause a reduction in production because of the decrease of labor supply due to increase of family’s income. Worker remittances have also impact on inflation, income inequality and exchange rate. Worker remittances also effect the economy through imports. The effect of remittances on imports can be either positive or negative. The direction of the effect will depend on whether the consumption goods or capital goods are imported. Import of goods that can be produced in the national economy lead to a decrease in production. Therefore, the foreign currency obtained from worker remittances can leave the country through imports.
The aim of this study is to search the relationship between worker remittances and imports for Turkey. To this aim, we employed Johansen Cointegration test and Hacker –Hatemi (2006) bootstrap causality test. The results of Johansen cointegration test showed that there is no long run relationship between worker remittances and imports. Therefore, worker remittances and import don’t move together in the long run. In other words, remittances will not be expected to affect imports positively or negatively. The findings of the causality test indicated the existence of a unidirectional causality running from worker remittances to imports.

Kaynakça

  • Abdih, Y., Barajas,A., Chami, R., Ebeke,C. (2012). Remittances Channel and Fiscal Impact in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia. IMF working paper No. 12/104. Washington DC.
  • Acosta, P., Calderón, C., Fajnzylber, P., Lopez, H. (2008). What is the Impact of International Remittances on Poverty and Inequality in Latin America?. World Development, 36 (1), 89-114.
  • Adil, H., Yan, Z. (2019). Impact analysis of Remittance flow on Import Demand of Pakistan. European Online Journal of Natural and Social Sciences, 8(1), 106-113.
  • Ahmed, R. R., Parmar,V., Ahmad, N. (2014). Causal Relationship between Worker’s Remittances and Imports in Pakistan. European Journal of Scientific Research, 119(3), 327-336.
  • Al-Mukit, M. D., Shafiullah, A.Z.M., Sajib, A.H. (2013). Determination of Causality between Remittances and Import: Evidence from Bangladesh. International Journal of Business and Social Research, 3(3), 55–62.
  • Bashier, A.A.(2018). The Impact of Remittances on the Import Demand Function in Jordan: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach. European Scientific Journal, 14(10),1857 – 17881.
  • Bayraktutan, Y, Bıdırdı, H.(2010). Türkiye Ithalatının Temel Belirleyicileri (1989-2004), Ege Akademik Bakis (Ege Academic Review), 10(1):351-369
  • Çulha, O. Y., Eren, O., Öğünç, F. (2019) . Import demand function for Turkey. Central Bank Review, 19 (1), 9-19.
  • Dewan, M.A.M., Shafiullah, A.Z.M., Sajib,A.H. (2013).Determination of Causality between Remittance and Import: Evidence from Bangladesh. International Journal of Business and Social Research (IJBSR), 3(3), 55-62.
  • Farzanegan, M.R., Hassan, S. M.(2020). How does the flow of Remittances Affect the Trade Balance of the Middle East and North Africa?. Journal of Economic Policy Reform, 23(2),248-266.
  • Farzanegan, M. R., Hassan, S. M. (2016). How does the Flow of Remittances Affect the Trade Balance of the Middle East and North Africa?. CESifo Working Paper Series, No. 6172, CESifo.
  • Ganeshamoorthy, K. (2019). Remittances as a Determinant of Import Function: A Ttime Series Analysis. International Journal of Commerce and Economics, 1(2), 15-21.
  • Gençler, A., Çiftçi, M. (2012). Dış Ticaretin Finansmanında Göçmen Gönderilerinin Rolü: Türkiye Örneği. Sosyoekonomi, 17(17), 301-331.
  • Glytsos, N. (1993). Measuring the Income Effects of Migrant Remittances: A Methodological Approach Applied to Greece. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 42(1), 131–168.
  • Hacker R.S., Hatemi, J.A. (2006). Tests for Causality Between Integrated Variables Using Asymptotic and Bootstrap Distributions: Theory and Application. Applied Economics, 38, 1489-1500.
  • Hien, N. P. (2017). The Impact of Remittance on Trade Balance: The Case of Malaysia. Journal of Economics and Public Finance, 3(4), 531-540.
  • Iliescu, N. (2019). Are Imports and Remittances Cointegrated for the Central and Eastern European countries?.Applied Economics Letters, 26(5),387-395.
  • Johansen S. (1991). Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegrating Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models. Econometrica, 59, 1551–1580.
  • Johansen, S., Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration with Applications to the Demand for Money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 169-210.
  • Kagochi, J. M., Kiambigi, M. (2012). Remittances’ Influence on Housing construction demand in Sub-Saharan Africa: The case of Kenya. African Development Review, 24 (3), 255-265.
  • Kalyoncu, H. (2006). An Aggregate Import Demand Function for Turkey. The Indian Journal of Economics, 86 (343), 1-12.
  • Kandil, M., Mirzaie, I. (2009). Are MENA Countries Reaping the Benefits of Inflows?. World Economics, 10(3), 159–192.
  • Khan M, Khattak RM, Bakhtiar Y, Nawab B, Rahim T, Ali A. (2007). Remittances as A Determinant of Import Function: An Empirical Evidence from Pakistan. Sarhad Journal of Agriculture, 23(04),1187-1190.
  • Mughal, A. G., Cipusheva, H., Abazi, H. (2008). Migration, Remittances, and the Standards of Living in the Republic of Macedonia. https://www.seeu.edu.mk/files/research/magchah-report-final.pdf
  • Munir, K., Rehman, N., Yahya, B., Badshah, N., Tariq, R., Akhtar, A. (2007). Remittances As A Determinant of Import Function (An Empirical Evidence from Pakistan). Sarhad Journal of Agriculture, 23(4), 1187-1190.
  • Paine S.(1974). Exporting workers: The Turkish case. Cambridge University Press, London, England.
  • Sayed, A.E.M. (2014). Do Remittances Matter for Egyptian Economy?. International Journal of Applied Operational Research, 4(1), 1-26.
  • Sultanov, M. (2013). Labour Migration and Import Demand: The Impact of Remittance Inflows for The Case Of Tajikistan. The International Journal of Economic Policy Studies,8(2),23-40.
  • Tansel, Aysıt, Yaşar, Pınar (2010). Macroeconomic Impact of Remittances on Output Growth: Evidence from Turkey. ERC Working Papers in Economics, No. 10/02 October 2010. https://erc.metu.edu.tr/en/system/files/menu/series10/1002.pdf
  • Thagunna, K.S., Acaharya, S. (2013). Empirical Analysis of Remittances Inflow: The Case of Nepal. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 3(2), 337-344.
  • Toda, H.Y., Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66, 225-250.
  • Tung, L. T. (2018). Impact of Remittance Inflows on Trade Balance in Developing Countries. Economics and Sociology, 11(4), 80-95.
  • Uysal, D., Özşahin, Ş., Üçler, G. (2018). Göçmen Gönderilerinin Dış Ticaret Dengesi Üzerine Etkisi: Seçilmiş BDT Ülkeleri İçin Ampirik Bir İnceleme. Yönetim ve Ekonomi, 25(3), 696-712.
  • Zaman, K., Nazakat, A.İ.(2005). Worker’s Remittances and Import Demand in Pakistan. The Phillipine Review of Economics, XLII(2), 127-137.
  • World Bank,(2020) https://www.migrationpolicy.org/programs/data-hub/global-remittances-guide

İşçi Dövizleri ve İthalat İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 3, 2603 - 2616, 30.09.2021
https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.862616

Öz

İşsizliğin ve yoksulluğun yüksek olduğu gelişmekte olan ve az gelişmiş ülkelerden daha iyi bir iş ve gelir elde etmek amacıyla işçiler gelişmiş ülkelere göç etmektedir. İşçilerin geride kalan ailelerine gönderdikleri dövizler ise gelirin gelişmiş ülkelerden az gelişmiş ülkelere transferini gerçekleştirerek önemli bir döviz kaynağı oluşturmaktadır. Böylece işçi dövizleri tasarruf-yatırım kanalıyla ülkenin ekonomik büyümesini hızlandırmaktadır. Ayrıca işçi dövizleri, göçmen ailelerini ve ülke ekonomisini çeşitli kanallarla etkilemektedir. Bunlardan ilki, gelen işçi dövizleri ile işçi ailelerinin tüketim, eğitim ve sağlık harcamalarının artmasıdır. Artan tüketim harcaması çarpan etkisiyle toplam talebi artıracaktır. Bununla birlikte işçi dövizleri, ailelerin gelirini artırdığından emek arzını azaltarak üretimin düşmesine de yol açmaktadır. Ayrıca, işçi dövizleri ülkedeki enflasyon, gelir eşitsizliği ve döviz kuru üzerinde etkili olmaktadır. İşçi dövizleri, ithalat vasıtasıyla da ülke ekonomisini etkilemektedir. İşçi dövizlerinin ithalat üzerindeki etkisi pozitif ya da negatif yönde olabilecektir. İşçi dövizlerinin ithalat üzerindeki etkisi tüketim ve sermaye mallarından hangisinin ithal edildiğine bağlı olmaktadır. Ülkede üretilebilecek malların ithal edilmesi ülkedeki üretimin azalmasına yol açacaktır. Bir başka deyişle işçi dövizleri ülkeye döviz girişi sağlarken ithalat vasıtasıyla tekrar ülkeden döviz çıkışına yol açabilmektedir.
Bu çalışmanın amacı işçi dövizleri ve ithalat arasındaki ilişkiyi Türkiye için araştırmaktadır. Bu amaçla Johansen eşbütünleşme testi ile Hacker ve Hatemi (2006) bootstrap nedensellik testine yer verilmiştir. Johansen testi sonucunda işçi dövizleri ve ithalat arasında uzun dönem ilişkiye rastlanmamıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, işçi dövizleri ve ithalat uzun dönemde birlikte hareket etmemektedir. Bir başka deyişle işçi dövizlerinin ithalatı pozitif ya da negatif yönde etkilemesi beklenmeyecektir. Hacker ve Hatemi (2006) bootstrap nedensellik testi bulguları ise, işçi dövizlerinden ithalata doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik olduğunu göstermiştir.

Kaynakça

  • Abdih, Y., Barajas,A., Chami, R., Ebeke,C. (2012). Remittances Channel and Fiscal Impact in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia. IMF working paper No. 12/104. Washington DC.
  • Acosta, P., Calderón, C., Fajnzylber, P., Lopez, H. (2008). What is the Impact of International Remittances on Poverty and Inequality in Latin America?. World Development, 36 (1), 89-114.
  • Adil, H., Yan, Z. (2019). Impact analysis of Remittance flow on Import Demand of Pakistan. European Online Journal of Natural and Social Sciences, 8(1), 106-113.
  • Ahmed, R. R., Parmar,V., Ahmad, N. (2014). Causal Relationship between Worker’s Remittances and Imports in Pakistan. European Journal of Scientific Research, 119(3), 327-336.
  • Al-Mukit, M. D., Shafiullah, A.Z.M., Sajib, A.H. (2013). Determination of Causality between Remittances and Import: Evidence from Bangladesh. International Journal of Business and Social Research, 3(3), 55–62.
  • Bashier, A.A.(2018). The Impact of Remittances on the Import Demand Function in Jordan: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach. European Scientific Journal, 14(10),1857 – 17881.
  • Bayraktutan, Y, Bıdırdı, H.(2010). Türkiye Ithalatının Temel Belirleyicileri (1989-2004), Ege Akademik Bakis (Ege Academic Review), 10(1):351-369
  • Çulha, O. Y., Eren, O., Öğünç, F. (2019) . Import demand function for Turkey. Central Bank Review, 19 (1), 9-19.
  • Dewan, M.A.M., Shafiullah, A.Z.M., Sajib,A.H. (2013).Determination of Causality between Remittance and Import: Evidence from Bangladesh. International Journal of Business and Social Research (IJBSR), 3(3), 55-62.
  • Farzanegan, M.R., Hassan, S. M.(2020). How does the flow of Remittances Affect the Trade Balance of the Middle East and North Africa?. Journal of Economic Policy Reform, 23(2),248-266.
  • Farzanegan, M. R., Hassan, S. M. (2016). How does the Flow of Remittances Affect the Trade Balance of the Middle East and North Africa?. CESifo Working Paper Series, No. 6172, CESifo.
  • Ganeshamoorthy, K. (2019). Remittances as a Determinant of Import Function: A Ttime Series Analysis. International Journal of Commerce and Economics, 1(2), 15-21.
  • Gençler, A., Çiftçi, M. (2012). Dış Ticaretin Finansmanında Göçmen Gönderilerinin Rolü: Türkiye Örneği. Sosyoekonomi, 17(17), 301-331.
  • Glytsos, N. (1993). Measuring the Income Effects of Migrant Remittances: A Methodological Approach Applied to Greece. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 42(1), 131–168.
  • Hacker R.S., Hatemi, J.A. (2006). Tests for Causality Between Integrated Variables Using Asymptotic and Bootstrap Distributions: Theory and Application. Applied Economics, 38, 1489-1500.
  • Hien, N. P. (2017). The Impact of Remittance on Trade Balance: The Case of Malaysia. Journal of Economics and Public Finance, 3(4), 531-540.
  • Iliescu, N. (2019). Are Imports and Remittances Cointegrated for the Central and Eastern European countries?.Applied Economics Letters, 26(5),387-395.
  • Johansen S. (1991). Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegrating Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models. Econometrica, 59, 1551–1580.
  • Johansen, S., Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration with Applications to the Demand for Money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 169-210.
  • Kagochi, J. M., Kiambigi, M. (2012). Remittances’ Influence on Housing construction demand in Sub-Saharan Africa: The case of Kenya. African Development Review, 24 (3), 255-265.
  • Kalyoncu, H. (2006). An Aggregate Import Demand Function for Turkey. The Indian Journal of Economics, 86 (343), 1-12.
  • Kandil, M., Mirzaie, I. (2009). Are MENA Countries Reaping the Benefits of Inflows?. World Economics, 10(3), 159–192.
  • Khan M, Khattak RM, Bakhtiar Y, Nawab B, Rahim T, Ali A. (2007). Remittances as A Determinant of Import Function: An Empirical Evidence from Pakistan. Sarhad Journal of Agriculture, 23(04),1187-1190.
  • Mughal, A. G., Cipusheva, H., Abazi, H. (2008). Migration, Remittances, and the Standards of Living in the Republic of Macedonia. https://www.seeu.edu.mk/files/research/magchah-report-final.pdf
  • Munir, K., Rehman, N., Yahya, B., Badshah, N., Tariq, R., Akhtar, A. (2007). Remittances As A Determinant of Import Function (An Empirical Evidence from Pakistan). Sarhad Journal of Agriculture, 23(4), 1187-1190.
  • Paine S.(1974). Exporting workers: The Turkish case. Cambridge University Press, London, England.
  • Sayed, A.E.M. (2014). Do Remittances Matter for Egyptian Economy?. International Journal of Applied Operational Research, 4(1), 1-26.
  • Sultanov, M. (2013). Labour Migration and Import Demand: The Impact of Remittance Inflows for The Case Of Tajikistan. The International Journal of Economic Policy Studies,8(2),23-40.
  • Tansel, Aysıt, Yaşar, Pınar (2010). Macroeconomic Impact of Remittances on Output Growth: Evidence from Turkey. ERC Working Papers in Economics, No. 10/02 October 2010. https://erc.metu.edu.tr/en/system/files/menu/series10/1002.pdf
  • Thagunna, K.S., Acaharya, S. (2013). Empirical Analysis of Remittances Inflow: The Case of Nepal. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 3(2), 337-344.
  • Toda, H.Y., Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66, 225-250.
  • Tung, L. T. (2018). Impact of Remittance Inflows on Trade Balance in Developing Countries. Economics and Sociology, 11(4), 80-95.
  • Uysal, D., Özşahin, Ş., Üçler, G. (2018). Göçmen Gönderilerinin Dış Ticaret Dengesi Üzerine Etkisi: Seçilmiş BDT Ülkeleri İçin Ampirik Bir İnceleme. Yönetim ve Ekonomi, 25(3), 696-712.
  • Zaman, K., Nazakat, A.İ.(2005). Worker’s Remittances and Import Demand in Pakistan. The Phillipine Review of Economics, XLII(2), 127-137.
  • World Bank,(2020) https://www.migrationpolicy.org/programs/data-hub/global-remittances-guide
Toplam 35 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Ayşe Arı 0000-0002-8485-5932

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Eylül 2021
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2021 Cilt: 10 Sayı: 3

Kaynak Göster

APA Arı, A. (2021). İşçi Dövizleri ve İthalat İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği. İnsan Ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi, 10(3), 2603-2616. https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.862616
İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi  Creative Commons Atıf-GayriTicari 4.0 Uluslararası Lisansı (CC BY NC) ile lisanslanmıştır.