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Türkiye’de İnovasyonun İstihdama Etkisi

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 12 Sayı: 3, 1271 - 1291, 30.09.2023
https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.1270057

Öz

Bu makale 1991-2021 yılları arasında Türkiye işgücü piyasasında inovasyonun istihdam üzerindeki etkisini aylık patent tescilleri ve yıllık AR-GE harcamaları istatistiklerini kullanılarak incelemektedir. Ampirik teknik olarak ARDL yaklaşımı kullanılmıştır. Bu yaklaşımın tercih edilmesinin nedeni bu yöntemin uzun dönem ve kısa dönem sonuçlarını ayırması ve diğer yöntemlere göre daha az gözlem sayısı ile analizlerde daha iyi sonuçlar vermesidir. Bu çalışmanın sonuçlarının literatürden farklılığı analizin iki farklı zaman diliminde, iki farklı temsili değişken ile yapılması ve sonuçlarının sağlamlılığının kanıtı olarak bunların aynı sonucu vermesidir. Uzun dönem modeli ve kısa dönem modeli ayrı ayrı incelendiğinde inovasyonun istihdam üzerindeki etkisinin kısa dönemde negatif olduğu, uzun dönemde ise pozitif olduğu görülmektedir. Böylece, 1991-2021 döneminde Türkiye işgücü piyasasında inovasyon kısa vadede istihdam düzeylerini bir ölçüde olumsuz etkileyebilirken, uzun vadede inovasyon istihdam düzeyleri üzerinde daha yapısal ve sürdürülebilir bir pozitif etki gösterebilecektir. Kısa dönemde inovasyonun istihdama negatif etkisi bir nevi yaratıcı yıkım gibi karşılanabilir ancak uzun dönemde etkinin pozitife dönmesi inovasyonun sağladığı kar ve verimlilikle birlikte işçilerin eğitim ve öğretim seviyelerindeki artışın onları inovasyona adapte ederek istihdamın arttığı hipotezini desteklemektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı makro veri setleri ile çıkarım yapmaktır ancak mikro düzeyde firma verileri kullanılarak inovasyonun istihdam üzerindeki etkisine ilişkin önemli sonuçlar elde edilebilir.

Kaynakça

  • Acar, M., & Sever, E. (2022). The Effect of Innovation on Employment: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach for Turkey 1. Sosyoekonomi, 30(51), 33-52. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2022.01.02
  • Akçacı, T. (2013). Eğitim harcamalarının iktisadi büyümeye etkisi. Kafkas Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 4(5), 65-79.
  • Akıncı, A. (2017). Türkiye'de Eğitim Harcamalarının Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi. Maliye Dergisi, 173, 387-397.
  • Aldieri, L., Makkonen, T., & Vinci, C. P. (2021). Spoils of innovation? Employment effects of R&D and knowledge spillovers in Finland. Economics of Innovation and New Technology, 30(4), 356-370. https://doi.org/10.1080/10438599.2019.1703754
  • Barbieri, L., Piva, M., & Vivarelli, M. (2019). R&D, embodied technological change, and employment: Evidence from Italian microdata. Industrial and Corporate Change, 28(1), 203-218. https://doi.org/10.1093/icc/dty001
  • Bayar, H. T., & Öztürk, M. (2021). Teknolojinin istihdam üzerine etkisi: VAR analizi. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 26(2), 119-127.
  • Bogliacino, F., & Pianta, M. (2010). Innovation and employment: a reinvestigation using revised Pavitt classes. Research Policy, 39(6), 799-809. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2010.02.017
  • Bogliacino, F., & Vivarelli, M. (2012). The job creation effect of R&D expenditures. Australian Economic Papers, 51(2), 96-113. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8454.2012.00425.x
  • Buerger, M., Broekel, T., & Coad, A. (2012). Regional dynamics of innovation: Investigating the co-evolution of patents, research and development (R&D), and employment. Regional Studies, 46(5), 565-582. https://doi.org/10.1080/00343404.2010.520693
  • Coccia, M. (2013). What are the likely interactions among innovation, government debt, and employment?. Innovation: The European Journal of Social Science Research, 26(4), 456-471. https://doi.org/10.1080/13511610.2013.863704
  • Crespi, G., & Tacsir, E. (2011, September). Effects of innovation on employment in Latin America. In 2011 Atlanta conference on science and innovation policy (pp. 1-11). IEEE. https://doi.org/10.1109/ACSIP.2011.6064465
  • Destefanis, S., & Rehman, N. U. (2023). Investment, innovation activities and employment across European regions. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 65, 474-490. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2023.03.013
  • Doğaner, A. (2022). The Effect of R&D Expenditures and Number of Patents on Employment in Turkiye: An Evaluation with the ARDL Analysis. Kırklareli Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 11(2), 351-365.
  • Dosi, G., & Mohnen, P. (2019). Innovation and employment: an introduction. Industrial and Corporate Change, 28(1), 45-49. https://doi.org/10.1093/icc/dty064
  • Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Innovation for development: the key to a transformative recovery in Latin America and the Caribbean (LC/CCITIC.3/3), Santiago, 2022.
  • Evangelista, R., & Savona, M. (2002). The impact of innovation on employment in services: Evidence from Italy. International Review of Applied Economics, 16(3), 309-318. https://doi.org/10.1080/02692170210136136
  • Goel, R. K., & Nelson, M. A. (2022). Employment effects of R&D and process innovation: Evidence from small and medium-sized firms in emerging markets. Eurasian Business Review, 12(1), 97-123. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40821-022-00203-6
  • Gujarati, D. (1999). Basic Econometrics, Fourth Edition. McGrow, Hill.
  • İğdeli, A. (2019). AR-GE ve eğitim harcamalarının ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi: Türkiye örneği. Manas Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 8(3), 2517-2538. https://doi.org/10.33206/mjss.520848
  • Kancs, D. A., & Siliverstovs, B. (2020). Employment effect of innovation. Empirical Economics, 59(3), 1373-1391. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-019-01712-6
  • Kirchhoff, B. A., Newbert, S. L., Hasan, I., & Armington, C. (2007). The influence of university R & D expenditures on new business formations and employment growth. Entrepreneurship theory and practice, 31(4), 543-559. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6520.2007.00187.x
  • Lachenmaier, S., & Rottmann, H. (2011). Effects of innovation on employment: A dynamic panel analysis. International journal of industrial organization, 29(2), 210-220. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2010.05.004
  • Liew, V. K. S. (2004), Which lag length selection criteria should we employ?. Economics bulletin, 3(33), 1-9.
  • Miguel Benavente, J. (2006). The role of research and innovation in promoting productivity in Chile. Economics of innovation and New Technology, 15(4-5), 301-315. https://doi.org/10.1080/10438590500512794
  • Mitra, A. (2020). Technological progress, innovation and employment: firm-level evidence from India’s manufacturing sector. Innovation and Development, 10(3), 451-465. https://doi.org/10.1080/2157930X.2019.1689614
  • Moutinho, R., Au-Yong-Oliveira, M., Coelho, A., & Manso, J. P. (2015). Beyond the “Innovation's Black-Box”: Translating R&D outlays into employment and economic growth. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 50, 45-58. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seps.2015.04.001
  • Opportunity, O. E. C. D. (2021). OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2021.
  • Pellegrino, G., Piva, M., & Vivarelli, M. (2019). Beyond R&D: the role of embodied technological change in affecting employment. Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 29, 1151-1171. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00191-019-00635-w
  • Pesaran, H. H., & Shin, Y. (1998). Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models. Economics letters, 58(1), 17-29. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-1765(97)00214-0
  • Piva, M., & Vivarelli, M. (2005). Innovation and employment: Evidence from Italian microdata. Journal of economics, 86(1), 65-83. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00712-005-0140-z
  • Riddel, M., & Schwer, R. K. (2003). Regional innovative capacity with endogenous employment: empirical evidence from the US. Review of Regional Studies, 33(1), 73-84. https://doi.org/10.52324/001c.8414
  • Shah, I. H., Kollydas, K., Lee, P. Y., Malki, I., & Chu, C. (2022). Does R&D investment drive employment growth? Empirical evidence at industry level from Japan. International Journal of Finance & Economics. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2677
  • Soumitra, D., Lanvin, B., & Wunsch-Vincent, S. (Eds.). (2020). Global innovation index 2020: who will finance innovation?. WIPO.
  • Türedi, S. (2016). The relationship between R&D expenditures, patent applications and growth: a dynamic panel causality analysis for OECD countries. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 16(1), 39-48.
  • Wallsten, S. J. (2000). The effects of government-industry R&D programs on private R&D: the case of the Small Business Innovation Research program. The RAND Journal of Economics, 82-100. https://doi.org/10.2307/2601030
  • Uçak, S., Kuvat, Ö., & Aytekin, A. (2018). Türkiye'de Arge Harcamaları- Büyüme ilişkisi: ARDL Yöntemi. Manisa Celal Bayar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 16(2), 129-160.
  • Yang, C. H., & Lin, C. H. A. (2008). Developing employment effects of innovations: microeconometric evidence from Taiwan. The Developing Economies, 46(2), 109-134. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1746-1049.2008.00059.x

The Effect of Innovation on Employment in Türkiye

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 12 Sayı: 3, 1271 - 1291, 30.09.2023
https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.1270057

Öz

This study examines the impact of innovation on employment in the Turkish labor market between the years 1991-2021, using monthly patent grants and annual R&D expenditure statistics. As for empirical technique, ARDL (autoregressive distributed lag) approach is used. The reason for choosing this approach is that it separates the long-term and short-term results and gives better results in analysis with a lower number of observations than other methods. The difference between the results of this study from the literature is that the analysis was performed in two different time periods, with two different proxy variables, and they gave the same result as proof of the robustness of the results. When the long-run model and the short-run model are investigated separately, it is found that while the effect of innovation on employment is negative in the short-run, it turns out to be positive in the long-run. Thus, during the period 1991-2021 in the Turkish labor market, while innovation might negatively affect employment levels to some extent in the short run, innovation could exert a more structural and sustainable positive impact on employment levels in the long run. In the short-run, the negative effect of innovation on employment can be seen as a kind of creative destruction, but in the long-run, the positive effect of innovation supports the hypothesis that the increase in the education and training levels of workers along with the profit and productivity provided by innovation increases employment by adapting workers to innovation. The aim of this study is to make an inference with macro data sets but, using micro-level, firm data may provide significant results on the effect of innovation on employment.

Kaynakça

  • Acar, M., & Sever, E. (2022). The Effect of Innovation on Employment: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach for Turkey 1. Sosyoekonomi, 30(51), 33-52. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2022.01.02
  • Akçacı, T. (2013). Eğitim harcamalarının iktisadi büyümeye etkisi. Kafkas Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 4(5), 65-79.
  • Akıncı, A. (2017). Türkiye'de Eğitim Harcamalarının Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi. Maliye Dergisi, 173, 387-397.
  • Aldieri, L., Makkonen, T., & Vinci, C. P. (2021). Spoils of innovation? Employment effects of R&D and knowledge spillovers in Finland. Economics of Innovation and New Technology, 30(4), 356-370. https://doi.org/10.1080/10438599.2019.1703754
  • Barbieri, L., Piva, M., & Vivarelli, M. (2019). R&D, embodied technological change, and employment: Evidence from Italian microdata. Industrial and Corporate Change, 28(1), 203-218. https://doi.org/10.1093/icc/dty001
  • Bayar, H. T., & Öztürk, M. (2021). Teknolojinin istihdam üzerine etkisi: VAR analizi. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 26(2), 119-127.
  • Bogliacino, F., & Pianta, M. (2010). Innovation and employment: a reinvestigation using revised Pavitt classes. Research Policy, 39(6), 799-809. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2010.02.017
  • Bogliacino, F., & Vivarelli, M. (2012). The job creation effect of R&D expenditures. Australian Economic Papers, 51(2), 96-113. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8454.2012.00425.x
  • Buerger, M., Broekel, T., & Coad, A. (2012). Regional dynamics of innovation: Investigating the co-evolution of patents, research and development (R&D), and employment. Regional Studies, 46(5), 565-582. https://doi.org/10.1080/00343404.2010.520693
  • Coccia, M. (2013). What are the likely interactions among innovation, government debt, and employment?. Innovation: The European Journal of Social Science Research, 26(4), 456-471. https://doi.org/10.1080/13511610.2013.863704
  • Crespi, G., & Tacsir, E. (2011, September). Effects of innovation on employment in Latin America. In 2011 Atlanta conference on science and innovation policy (pp. 1-11). IEEE. https://doi.org/10.1109/ACSIP.2011.6064465
  • Destefanis, S., & Rehman, N. U. (2023). Investment, innovation activities and employment across European regions. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 65, 474-490. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2023.03.013
  • Doğaner, A. (2022). The Effect of R&D Expenditures and Number of Patents on Employment in Turkiye: An Evaluation with the ARDL Analysis. Kırklareli Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 11(2), 351-365.
  • Dosi, G., & Mohnen, P. (2019). Innovation and employment: an introduction. Industrial and Corporate Change, 28(1), 45-49. https://doi.org/10.1093/icc/dty064
  • Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Innovation for development: the key to a transformative recovery in Latin America and the Caribbean (LC/CCITIC.3/3), Santiago, 2022.
  • Evangelista, R., & Savona, M. (2002). The impact of innovation on employment in services: Evidence from Italy. International Review of Applied Economics, 16(3), 309-318. https://doi.org/10.1080/02692170210136136
  • Goel, R. K., & Nelson, M. A. (2022). Employment effects of R&D and process innovation: Evidence from small and medium-sized firms in emerging markets. Eurasian Business Review, 12(1), 97-123. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40821-022-00203-6
  • Gujarati, D. (1999). Basic Econometrics, Fourth Edition. McGrow, Hill.
  • İğdeli, A. (2019). AR-GE ve eğitim harcamalarının ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi: Türkiye örneği. Manas Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 8(3), 2517-2538. https://doi.org/10.33206/mjss.520848
  • Kancs, D. A., & Siliverstovs, B. (2020). Employment effect of innovation. Empirical Economics, 59(3), 1373-1391. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-019-01712-6
  • Kirchhoff, B. A., Newbert, S. L., Hasan, I., & Armington, C. (2007). The influence of university R & D expenditures on new business formations and employment growth. Entrepreneurship theory and practice, 31(4), 543-559. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6520.2007.00187.x
  • Lachenmaier, S., & Rottmann, H. (2011). Effects of innovation on employment: A dynamic panel analysis. International journal of industrial organization, 29(2), 210-220. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2010.05.004
  • Liew, V. K. S. (2004), Which lag length selection criteria should we employ?. Economics bulletin, 3(33), 1-9.
  • Miguel Benavente, J. (2006). The role of research and innovation in promoting productivity in Chile. Economics of innovation and New Technology, 15(4-5), 301-315. https://doi.org/10.1080/10438590500512794
  • Mitra, A. (2020). Technological progress, innovation and employment: firm-level evidence from India’s manufacturing sector. Innovation and Development, 10(3), 451-465. https://doi.org/10.1080/2157930X.2019.1689614
  • Moutinho, R., Au-Yong-Oliveira, M., Coelho, A., & Manso, J. P. (2015). Beyond the “Innovation's Black-Box”: Translating R&D outlays into employment and economic growth. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 50, 45-58. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seps.2015.04.001
  • Opportunity, O. E. C. D. (2021). OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2021.
  • Pellegrino, G., Piva, M., & Vivarelli, M. (2019). Beyond R&D: the role of embodied technological change in affecting employment. Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 29, 1151-1171. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00191-019-00635-w
  • Pesaran, H. H., & Shin, Y. (1998). Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models. Economics letters, 58(1), 17-29. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-1765(97)00214-0
  • Piva, M., & Vivarelli, M. (2005). Innovation and employment: Evidence from Italian microdata. Journal of economics, 86(1), 65-83. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00712-005-0140-z
  • Riddel, M., & Schwer, R. K. (2003). Regional innovative capacity with endogenous employment: empirical evidence from the US. Review of Regional Studies, 33(1), 73-84. https://doi.org/10.52324/001c.8414
  • Shah, I. H., Kollydas, K., Lee, P. Y., Malki, I., & Chu, C. (2022). Does R&D investment drive employment growth? Empirical evidence at industry level from Japan. International Journal of Finance & Economics. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2677
  • Soumitra, D., Lanvin, B., & Wunsch-Vincent, S. (Eds.). (2020). Global innovation index 2020: who will finance innovation?. WIPO.
  • Türedi, S. (2016). The relationship between R&D expenditures, patent applications and growth: a dynamic panel causality analysis for OECD countries. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 16(1), 39-48.
  • Wallsten, S. J. (2000). The effects of government-industry R&D programs on private R&D: the case of the Small Business Innovation Research program. The RAND Journal of Economics, 82-100. https://doi.org/10.2307/2601030
  • Uçak, S., Kuvat, Ö., & Aytekin, A. (2018). Türkiye'de Arge Harcamaları- Büyüme ilişkisi: ARDL Yöntemi. Manisa Celal Bayar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 16(2), 129-160.
  • Yang, C. H., & Lin, C. H. A. (2008). Developing employment effects of innovations: microeconometric evidence from Taiwan. The Developing Economies, 46(2), 109-134. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1746-1049.2008.00059.x
Toplam 37 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Ekonomi, Uygulamalı Makro Ekonometri, Makro İktisat (Diğer)
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Hakkı Kutay Bolkol 0000-0002-8979-4462

Ece Handan Güleryüz 0000-0003-0692-9112

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 21 Eylül 2023
Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Eylül 2023
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2023 Cilt: 12 Sayı: 3

Kaynak Göster

APA Bolkol, H. K., & Güleryüz, E. H. (2023). The Effect of Innovation on Employment in Türkiye. İnsan Ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi, 12(3), 1271-1291. https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.1270057
İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi  Creative Commons Atıf-GayriTicari 4.0 Uluslararası Lisansı (CC BY NC) ile lisanslanmıştır.