Türkiye’de Küreselleşme Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım Girişlerini Etkiliyor mu? ARDL Yaklaşımı

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 13 Sayı: 1, 152 - 173, 31.03.2024

Süleyman Uğurlu

https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.1372205

Öz

Modern çağda bir ülkenin küresel ekonomiyle bütünleşebilmesi ve ekonomik gelişimini sürdürebilmesi için en önemli araçlardan biri doğrudan yabancı yatırımlardır. Küreselleşmenin avantajlarını ve faydalarını etkin bir şekilde kavrayabilen ülkeler, uluslararası yatırımcıları kendi iç pazarlarına çekmek için çeşitli stratejiler geliştirmektedirler. Ülke ekonomisini daha liberal bir yapıya kavuşturmanın yanında küreselleşme kapsamında çeşitli sosyal ve politik adımlar atmak bu stratejiler arasında üst sıralarda yer almaktadır. Türkiye de bu konuda çaba gösteren ülkelerden biridir. Nitekim Türkiye’nin 2005 yılında Avrupa Birliği’ne aday ülke ilan edilmesi ve Türkiye’nin uygulamaya başladığı neoliberal politikalar doğrudan yabancı yatırımların Türkiye’ye yönelmesindeki önemli gelişmeler olarak görülmektedirler. Dolayısıyla bu çalışmada küreselleşmenin doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar üzerindeki etkisi 1973-2020 yılları arasında Türkiye örnekleminde ARDL yaklaşımı ile araştırılmıştır. Çalışmada doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişleri bağımlı değişken olurken, bağımsız değişken olarak küreselleşmeyi temsilen son dönemde akademik yazında sıklıkla tercih edilen KOF Küreselleşme Endeksi seçilmiştir. Kişi başına gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla, dış açıklık ve enflasyon değişkenleri de diğer bağımsız değişkenlerdir. Çalışmada ilk olarak birim kök sınaması yapılmıştır. Serilerin farklı seviyelerde durağan olmaları nedeniyle ARDL yaklaşımı tercih edilmiştir. Modelde yer alan değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönemli eşbütünleşme ilişkisi sınır testi yaklaşımıyla tespit edilmiştir. Uzun dönemde eşbütünleşme katsayı tahmincisi sonuçlarına göre küreselleşmede meydana gelen %1’lik artış doğrudan yabancı yatırımları %0.14 artırmaktadır. Bununla birlikte kişi başına gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla ve dış açıklıktaki %1’lik artışlar doğrudan yabancı yatırımları sırasıyla %0.49 ve %1.63 artırmaktadır. Buna karşın enflasyondaki %1’lik artış ise doğrudan yabancı yatırımları %0.27 azaltmaktadır. Son olarak hata düzeltme modeli sonuçlarına göre modelde yer alan bağımsız değişkenlerden kaynaklanan şokların %63’ü bir dönem içerisinde telafi edilerek uzun dönemde tekrar dengeye gelinmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar, Küreselleşme, KOF Endeksi, ARDL, Hata Düzeltme Modeli

Does Globalization Affect Foreign Direct Investments Inflows in Türkiye? ARDL Approach

Öz

In the modern era, foreign direct investments (FDI) are one of the most important tools for a country to integrate with the global economy and sustain economic development. Countries that have the capability to effectively grasp the advantages and benefits of globalization develop various strategies to attract international investors to their domestic markets. In addition to liberalizing the country’s economy, various social and political steps within the scope of globalization rank highly among these strategies. Türkiye is one of the countries whose efforts are being made in this regard. In fact, the declaration of Türkiye as a candidate country for the European Union in 2005 and the neoliberal policies that Türkiye has started to implement are seen as important developments in the orientation of foreign direct investments towards Türkiye. Therefore, in this study, the impact of globalization on foreign direct investments inflows is investigated using the ARDL approach in the sample of Türkiye between 1973-2020. While FDI inflows are the dependent variable in the study, the KOF Globalization Index, which is often preferred in the recent academic literature, is chosen as the independent variable to represent globalization. Other independent variables are GDP per capita, openness to the outside world and inflation. In the study, unit root test is performed first. As the series are stationary at different levels, the ARDL approach is preferred. The bounds test approach was used to determine the long-run cointegration relationship between the variables in the model. According to the results of the long-run cointegration coefficient estimator, a 1% increase in globalization increases foreign direct investment by 0.14%. On the other hand, a 1% increase in GDP per capita and external openness increases FDI by 0.49% and 1.63%, respectively. On the other hand, a 1% increase in inflation reduces FDI by 0.27%. Finally, according to the results of the error correction model, 63% of the shocks arising from the independent variables in the model are compensated within one period and rebalanced in the long run.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Foreign Direct Investments, Globalization, KOF Index, ARDL, Error Correction Model

Kaynakça

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