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Unravelling the Roots of State Failure: Syria, Libya and Yemen

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 14 Sayı: 1, 34 - 51, 28.03.2025
https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.1585083

Öz

The collapse of state authority in Syria, Libya, Yemen following the Arab Spring has brought renewed attention to the dynamics of state failure. This article investigates three key factors contributing to state failure and civil war escalation in Libya, Yemen, and Syria: non-professional and non-institutionalized militaries, the absence of a shared national identity and external interventions by regional and global actors. In each of these countries, the failure of the military to act as a neutral and professional institution, combined with deep-seated identity divisions, created an environment conducive to internal strife. In addition, the absence of unifying national identity leads to increased competition among various groups vying for power and undermines the legitimacy of state institutions. Finally, external interventions, often driven by regional and global powers seeking to advance their own interests and supporting competing factions in these conflicts, further weakened the state’s capacity to maintain control and fueled prolonged violence. External interventions also exacerbated internal divisions, turning domestic conflicts into proxy wars. By examining the cases of Syria, Libya and Yemen, this article underscores the critical role that lack of professional military and national identity along with external intervention play in state failure and civil war.

Kaynakça

  • Al-Muslimi, F. (2015) How Sunni-Shia Sectarianism is Poisoning Yemen. Carnegie Middle East Center, December 29. https://sanaacenter.org/publications/main-publications/40 (Accessed 8.09.2024)
  • Al-Muslimi, F. & Baron, A. (2016) The Politics Driving Yemen’s Rising Sectarianism. Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies, May 30. https://sanaacenter.org/publications/main-publications/40 (Accessed 8.09.2024)
  • Asseburg, M. (2013) Syria’s Civil War: Geopolitical Implications and Scenarios, IEMed Mediterranean Yearbook, 18-23. https://www.iemed.org/publication/syrias-civil-war-geopolitical-implications-and- scenarios/ (Accessed 14.09.2024)
  • Asseburg, M. (2020) Reconstruction in Syria: Challenges and Policy Options for the EU and Its Member States. SWP Research Paper 2020/RP 11, 7-34. https://www.swp-berlin. org/publications/products/research_papers/2020RP11_ReconstructionSyria.pdf (Accessed 10.09.2024)
  • AlMustafa, M. (2020) Power Centers in the Syrian Army: A Sectarian Approach. Omran Center for Strategic Studies, March 31. https://omranstudies.org/index.php/publications/ papers/power-centers-in-the-syrian- army-a-sectarian-approach.html (Accessed 17.09.2024)
  • Barany, Z. (2011) Comparing the Arab Revolts: The Role of the Military. Journal of Democracy 22(4), 24-35.
  • Batatu, H. (1999) Syria’s Peasantry, the Descendants of Its Lesser Rural Notables, and Their Politics. Princeton, Princeton University Press.
  • Bellin, E. (2004) The Robustness of Authoritarianism in the Middle East: Exceptionalism in Comparative Perspective. Comparative Politics 36(2), 139-157.
  • Bellin, E. (2012). Reconsidering the Robustness of Authoritarianism in the Middle East: Lessons from the Arab Spring. Comparative Politics 44(2), 127-149.
  • Bonnefoy, L. & Poirier, M. (2009). Civil society and democratization in Yemen Enhancing the role of intermediate bodies. The Knowledge Programme Civil Society in West Asia.
  • Call, C. T. (2011) Beyond the ‘failed state’: Toward conceptual alternatives. European Journal of International Relations, 17(2), 303–326.
  • Campbell, J. (2011) Qaddafi’s Sub-Saharan Mercenaries. Council on Foreign Relations, March 7. https://www.cfr.org/blog/qaddafis-sub-saharan-mercenaries (Accessed 18.09.2024).
  • Collier, P., Hoeffler, A. & Söderbom, M. (2004) On the Duration of Civil War. Journal of Peace Research, 4(3), 253-73.
  • Danahar, P. (2013) Libya: Year Zero. In P. Danahar (ed.), The New Middle East: The World After the Arab Spring (325-368). London: Bloomsbury Press.
  • Elbadawi, I. A. & Sambanis, N. (2000) External Interventions and the Duration of Civil Wars. Policy Research Working Paper 2433, World Bank.
  • Ellison, D. B. (2015) Nationalism in the Arab Spring. Expression, Effects on Transitions, and Implications for the Middle East State. A Comparative Analysis of Egypt and Libya [unpublished Senior Essay]. New Haven, CT: Yale University Department of Political Science.
  • Finn, T. (2011) Yemen Showdown Looms as Army Loyalties Divide. The Guardian, March 21. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/mar/21/yemen-regime-army-chiefs-defect (Accessed 24.09.2024)
  • Fukuyama, F. (2018) Why National Identity Matters. Journal of Democracy, 9 (4), 5-15.
  • Goldsmith, L. (2011) Syria’s Alawites and the Politics of Sectarian Insecurity: A Khaldunian Perspective. Ortadoğu Etütleri, 3(1), 33-60.
  • Goldstone, J. A. (2011) Understanding the Revolutions of 2011. Foreign Affairs. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2011-04-14/understanding-revolutions-2011(Accessed 10.10.2024)
  • Grant, T. D. (2004) Partition of Failed States: Impediments and Impulses. Indiana Journal of Global Legal Studies, 11(2), 51-82.
  • Hinnebusch, R. (2006) Authoritarian Persistence, Democratization Theory and the Middle East: An Overview and Critique. Democratization, 13(3), 373-395.
  • Hitti, Philip K. (1959) Syria: A Short History. New York: Macmillan.
  • Huntington, S. P. (1957) The soldier and the state: the theory and politics of civil military relations. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
  • Ianchovichina, E. & Bader, S. A. (2018) Unintended Consequences? Foreign Intervention, Polarization and Conflict in MENA. Brookings Institute, October 17. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/unintended- consequences-foreign-intervention-polarization-and-conflict-in-mena/ (Accessed 10.10.2024)
  • Kahler, N. (2017) Asadism and Legitimacy in Syria. Joint Force Quarterly 87, October 1. https://ndupress.ndu.edu/Media/News/NewsArticleView/Article/ 1325967/asadism-and-legitimacy-in- syria/ (Accessed 15.10.2024)
  • Lamma, M. B. (2017) The Tribal Structure in Libya: Factor for Fragmentation or Cohesion?. Fondation pour la Recherche Strategique. https://www.frstrategie.org/web/documents/programmes/ observatoire-du- monde-arabo-musulman-et-du-sahel/publications/en/14.pdf (Accessed 15.10.2024)
  • Ottoway, M. (2022) War and Politics in Libya, Yemen and Syria. Wilson Center, January 6. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/war-and-politics-libya-yemen-and-syria (Accessed 13.10.2024)
  • Ottoway, M. & Mair, S. (2004) States at Risk and Failed States. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https://carnegieendowment.org/files/Ottaway_outlook3.pdf (Accessed 16.10.2024)
  • Phillips, C. (2015) Sectarianism and Conflict in Syria. Third World Quarterly 36(2), 357–376.
  • Reuters. (2015) Gulf Arab Ministers Condemn Houthi ‘Coup’ in Yemen. Reuters, January 21. https://www.reuters.com/article/world/gulf-arab-ministers-condemn-houthi-coup-in-yemen- idUSKBN0KU1YX/ (Accessed 12.10.2024)
  • Rotberg, R. I. (2002) The New Nature of Nation-State Failure. Washington Quarterly, 25(3), 85-96.
  • Rotberg, R. I. (2003) Failed States, Collapsed States, Weak States: Causes and Indicators. In R. I.
  • Rotberg (ed.), State failure and state weakness in a time of terror (1–25). Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press.
  • Rustow, D. A. (1970) Transitions to Democracy: Toward a Dynamic Model. Comparative Politics, 2(3), 337-363.
  • Shehata, D. (2014) The Arab Uprisings and the Prospects for Building Shared Societies Development, 57(1), 84-95.
  • Stepan, A. (1988) Rethinking Military Politics: Brazil and the Southern Cone. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
  • Swagman, C. F. (1988) Tribe and Politics: An Example from Highland Yemen. Journal of Anthropological Research, 44(3), 251-261.
  • Torres, M. M. & Anderson, M. (2004) Fragile States: Defining Difficult Environments for Poverty Reduction, PRDE Working Paper 1. London, UK: Department for International Development (DFID).
  • US Department of State. (2002) US National Security Strategy: Overview of America’s International Strategy, June 1. https://20012009.state.gov/r/pa/ei/wh/15421.htm (Accessed 2.9.2024)
  • Wimmen, H. (2016) Syria’s Path from Civic Uprising to Civil War. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, November 22. https://carnegieendowment.org/2016/11/22/syria-s-path-from-civic-uprising-to- civil-war-pub-66171 (Accessed 12.10.2024)
  • Zambelis, C. (2015) Syria’s Sunnis and the Regime’s Resilience. Combating Terrorism Center at West Point, May 28. www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/syrias-sunnis-and-the-regimes-resilience (Accessed 10.10.2024)
  • Zoubir, Y. H. (2020). The Protracted Civil War in Libya: The Role of Outside Powers. Insight Turkey, 22(4), 11-27.

Devletin Çöküşünün Temel Nedenleri: Suriye, Libya ve Yemen Örnekleri

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 14 Sayı: 1, 34 - 51, 28.03.2025
https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.1585083

Öz

Arap Baharı’nın ardından Suriye, Libya ve Yemen’de devlet otoritesinin çöküşü, çökmüş devletlerin dinamiklerini yeniden gündeme getirmiştir. Bu makale, söz konusu üç ülkede devletin çöküşüne ve iç savaşların derinleşmesine yol açan üç temel faktörü analiz etmektedir: profesyonel ve kurumsallaşmış orduların eksikliği, ortak bir ulusal kimliğin bulunmaması ve bölgesel ile küresel aktörlerin dış müdahaleleri. Bu ülkelerde orduların tarafsız, profesyonel ve ulusal bir kurum olarak işlev görememesi, mevcut kimlik ayrılıklarıyla birleşerek iç çatışmaların zeminini hazırlamıştır. Birleştirici bir ulusal kimliğin eksikliği ise farklı gruplar arasındaki iktidar mücadelesini körükleyerek devlet kurumlarının meşruiyetini daha da zayıflatmıştır. Üçüncü olarak, bölgesel ve küresel aktörlerin kendi çıkarlarına uygun şekilde çatışmalardaki rakip grupları destekleyen müdahaleleri, devletlerin kontrol kapasitesini zayıflatmış ve şiddetin uzun süre devam etmesine neden olmuştur. Bu dış müdahaleler, aynı zamanda toplumdaki hizipleşmeleri derinleştirerek çatışmaları vekalet savaşlarına dönüştürmüştür. Bu makale, Suriye, Libya ve Yemen örneklerinden hareketle, dış müdahalelerin, profesyonel ordu ve ulusal kimlik eksikliğinin devlet otoritesinin çöküşünü ve iç savaşları nasıl tetiklediğini kapsamlı bir şekilde analiz etmeyi amaçlamaktadır.

Kaynakça

  • Al-Muslimi, F. (2015) How Sunni-Shia Sectarianism is Poisoning Yemen. Carnegie Middle East Center, December 29. https://sanaacenter.org/publications/main-publications/40 (Accessed 8.09.2024)
  • Al-Muslimi, F. & Baron, A. (2016) The Politics Driving Yemen’s Rising Sectarianism. Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies, May 30. https://sanaacenter.org/publications/main-publications/40 (Accessed 8.09.2024)
  • Asseburg, M. (2013) Syria’s Civil War: Geopolitical Implications and Scenarios, IEMed Mediterranean Yearbook, 18-23. https://www.iemed.org/publication/syrias-civil-war-geopolitical-implications-and- scenarios/ (Accessed 14.09.2024)
  • Asseburg, M. (2020) Reconstruction in Syria: Challenges and Policy Options for the EU and Its Member States. SWP Research Paper 2020/RP 11, 7-34. https://www.swp-berlin. org/publications/products/research_papers/2020RP11_ReconstructionSyria.pdf (Accessed 10.09.2024)
  • AlMustafa, M. (2020) Power Centers in the Syrian Army: A Sectarian Approach. Omran Center for Strategic Studies, March 31. https://omranstudies.org/index.php/publications/ papers/power-centers-in-the-syrian- army-a-sectarian-approach.html (Accessed 17.09.2024)
  • Barany, Z. (2011) Comparing the Arab Revolts: The Role of the Military. Journal of Democracy 22(4), 24-35.
  • Batatu, H. (1999) Syria’s Peasantry, the Descendants of Its Lesser Rural Notables, and Their Politics. Princeton, Princeton University Press.
  • Bellin, E. (2004) The Robustness of Authoritarianism in the Middle East: Exceptionalism in Comparative Perspective. Comparative Politics 36(2), 139-157.
  • Bellin, E. (2012). Reconsidering the Robustness of Authoritarianism in the Middle East: Lessons from the Arab Spring. Comparative Politics 44(2), 127-149.
  • Bonnefoy, L. & Poirier, M. (2009). Civil society and democratization in Yemen Enhancing the role of intermediate bodies. The Knowledge Programme Civil Society in West Asia.
  • Call, C. T. (2011) Beyond the ‘failed state’: Toward conceptual alternatives. European Journal of International Relations, 17(2), 303–326.
  • Campbell, J. (2011) Qaddafi’s Sub-Saharan Mercenaries. Council on Foreign Relations, March 7. https://www.cfr.org/blog/qaddafis-sub-saharan-mercenaries (Accessed 18.09.2024).
  • Collier, P., Hoeffler, A. & Söderbom, M. (2004) On the Duration of Civil War. Journal of Peace Research, 4(3), 253-73.
  • Danahar, P. (2013) Libya: Year Zero. In P. Danahar (ed.), The New Middle East: The World After the Arab Spring (325-368). London: Bloomsbury Press.
  • Elbadawi, I. A. & Sambanis, N. (2000) External Interventions and the Duration of Civil Wars. Policy Research Working Paper 2433, World Bank.
  • Ellison, D. B. (2015) Nationalism in the Arab Spring. Expression, Effects on Transitions, and Implications for the Middle East State. A Comparative Analysis of Egypt and Libya [unpublished Senior Essay]. New Haven, CT: Yale University Department of Political Science.
  • Finn, T. (2011) Yemen Showdown Looms as Army Loyalties Divide. The Guardian, March 21. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/mar/21/yemen-regime-army-chiefs-defect (Accessed 24.09.2024)
  • Fukuyama, F. (2018) Why National Identity Matters. Journal of Democracy, 9 (4), 5-15.
  • Goldsmith, L. (2011) Syria’s Alawites and the Politics of Sectarian Insecurity: A Khaldunian Perspective. Ortadoğu Etütleri, 3(1), 33-60.
  • Goldstone, J. A. (2011) Understanding the Revolutions of 2011. Foreign Affairs. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2011-04-14/understanding-revolutions-2011(Accessed 10.10.2024)
  • Grant, T. D. (2004) Partition of Failed States: Impediments and Impulses. Indiana Journal of Global Legal Studies, 11(2), 51-82.
  • Hinnebusch, R. (2006) Authoritarian Persistence, Democratization Theory and the Middle East: An Overview and Critique. Democratization, 13(3), 373-395.
  • Hitti, Philip K. (1959) Syria: A Short History. New York: Macmillan.
  • Huntington, S. P. (1957) The soldier and the state: the theory and politics of civil military relations. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
  • Ianchovichina, E. & Bader, S. A. (2018) Unintended Consequences? Foreign Intervention, Polarization and Conflict in MENA. Brookings Institute, October 17. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/unintended- consequences-foreign-intervention-polarization-and-conflict-in-mena/ (Accessed 10.10.2024)
  • Kahler, N. (2017) Asadism and Legitimacy in Syria. Joint Force Quarterly 87, October 1. https://ndupress.ndu.edu/Media/News/NewsArticleView/Article/ 1325967/asadism-and-legitimacy-in- syria/ (Accessed 15.10.2024)
  • Lamma, M. B. (2017) The Tribal Structure in Libya: Factor for Fragmentation or Cohesion?. Fondation pour la Recherche Strategique. https://www.frstrategie.org/web/documents/programmes/ observatoire-du- monde-arabo-musulman-et-du-sahel/publications/en/14.pdf (Accessed 15.10.2024)
  • Ottoway, M. (2022) War and Politics in Libya, Yemen and Syria. Wilson Center, January 6. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/war-and-politics-libya-yemen-and-syria (Accessed 13.10.2024)
  • Ottoway, M. & Mair, S. (2004) States at Risk and Failed States. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https://carnegieendowment.org/files/Ottaway_outlook3.pdf (Accessed 16.10.2024)
  • Phillips, C. (2015) Sectarianism and Conflict in Syria. Third World Quarterly 36(2), 357–376.
  • Reuters. (2015) Gulf Arab Ministers Condemn Houthi ‘Coup’ in Yemen. Reuters, January 21. https://www.reuters.com/article/world/gulf-arab-ministers-condemn-houthi-coup-in-yemen- idUSKBN0KU1YX/ (Accessed 12.10.2024)
  • Rotberg, R. I. (2002) The New Nature of Nation-State Failure. Washington Quarterly, 25(3), 85-96.
  • Rotberg, R. I. (2003) Failed States, Collapsed States, Weak States: Causes and Indicators. In R. I.
  • Rotberg (ed.), State failure and state weakness in a time of terror (1–25). Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press.
  • Rustow, D. A. (1970) Transitions to Democracy: Toward a Dynamic Model. Comparative Politics, 2(3), 337-363.
  • Shehata, D. (2014) The Arab Uprisings and the Prospects for Building Shared Societies Development, 57(1), 84-95.
  • Stepan, A. (1988) Rethinking Military Politics: Brazil and the Southern Cone. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
  • Swagman, C. F. (1988) Tribe and Politics: An Example from Highland Yemen. Journal of Anthropological Research, 44(3), 251-261.
  • Torres, M. M. & Anderson, M. (2004) Fragile States: Defining Difficult Environments for Poverty Reduction, PRDE Working Paper 1. London, UK: Department for International Development (DFID).
  • US Department of State. (2002) US National Security Strategy: Overview of America’s International Strategy, June 1. https://20012009.state.gov/r/pa/ei/wh/15421.htm (Accessed 2.9.2024)
  • Wimmen, H. (2016) Syria’s Path from Civic Uprising to Civil War. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, November 22. https://carnegieendowment.org/2016/11/22/syria-s-path-from-civic-uprising-to- civil-war-pub-66171 (Accessed 12.10.2024)
  • Zambelis, C. (2015) Syria’s Sunnis and the Regime’s Resilience. Combating Terrorism Center at West Point, May 28. www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/syrias-sunnis-and-the-regimes-resilience (Accessed 10.10.2024)
  • Zoubir, Y. H. (2020). The Protracted Civil War in Libya: The Role of Outside Powers. Insight Turkey, 22(4), 11-27.
Toplam 43 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Ortadoğu Çalışmaları
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Ayfer Erdogan 0000-0002-3176-587X

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 23 Mart 2025
Yayımlanma Tarihi 28 Mart 2025
Gönderilme Tarihi 15 Kasım 2024
Kabul Tarihi 20 Şubat 2025
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2025 Cilt: 14 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Erdogan, A. (2025). Unravelling the Roots of State Failure: Syria, Libya and Yemen. İnsan Ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi, 14(1), 34-51. https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.1585083
İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi  Creative Commons Atıf-GayriTicari 4.0 Uluslararası Lisansı (CC BY NC) ile lisanslanmıştır.