All Models Are Wrong, But Some Are Useful: Determining the Low (Drought) and High (Flood) Flow Characteristics in Ungauged Basins

Öz

Although instrumental observations in the basin are essential for understanding the basin processes, it is challenging to have observational data in all locations. Therefore, this study aims to simulate the low/high flows and compare them with observation. With this aim, 90 sub-basins were generated, and Hydrological Response Units/HRU was obtained by overlaying data such as land use, slope, and soil. Hydrological processes were simulated based upon water balance using meteorological data within the basin and HRU. The model results were used for calibration via SWAT-CUP using the E13A031 station. The modeled results to simulate basin processes have been obtained as sufficient. The different time series characteristics (magnitude, frequency, duration, and timing) belonging to low and high flow characteristics have been estimated and compared with observed data. Even though there is good coherence between observed and modeled low/high flow metrics, there are many uncertainty sources caused to over and under estimation on some metrics. On the other hand, metrics to all sub-basins are calculated. According to the result, the Kocanaz basin reflects high differences in low/high flows metric compared to other basins. In this context, hydrological models offer opportunities for planning and watershed management to understand climate change and land-use change.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Hydrological Modelling
• Flood/Drought
• SWAT
• Bartın Stream Basin

Tüm Modeller Yanlıştır, Ancak Bazıları Faydalıdır: Akım Gözlem İstasyonu Bulunmayan Havzalarda Düşük (Kurak) ve Yüksek (Taşkın) Akım Davranışlarının Belirlenmesi

Öz

Havzalarda aletli gözlemler havza süreçlerini anlamak için oldukça önemli bir konuma sahip olmasına rağmen tüm alanlarda aletli gözlem verilerini bulmak oldukça zordur. Bu çalışma ile akım gözlem istasyonu (AGİ) olmayan havzalarda düşük/yüksek akım karakteristiklerinin SWAT ile modellenmesi ve gözlemle arasındaki farklılıklarının karşılaştırılması amaçlanmıştır. Bu amaçla, Bartın Çayı havzası örnek alan olarak seçilmiş ve ALOS SYM temelinde 90 adet alt-havza çıkarılmıştır. Bu havzalarda arazi kullanımı, eğim ve toprak verisi çakıştırılarak Hidrolojik Tepki Birimleri/HRU elde edilmiştir. HRU ve havza içinde tüm hidrolojik süreçler su dengesi temelinde elde edilen meteorolojik verilerle simüle edilmiştir. Model sonuçları, E13A031 istasyonuna dayalı olarak SWAT-CUP vasıtasıyla kalibre edilmiştir. Modellenen sonuçların havza içi süreçleri modellemek için yeterli olduğu görülmüştür. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre hem düşük hem de yüksek akımlara ait farklı zaman serisi karakteristikleri (büyüklük, sıklık, süre, zamanlama) hesaplanmış ve gözlem verisiyle karşılaştırılmıştır. Modellenen düşük ve yüksek akım metrikleri genel olarak gözlem ile uyuşsa da, birçok belirsizlik kaynağından dolayı bazı akım metriklerini fazla veya düşük hesapladığını göstermiştir. Öte yandan, tüm alt-havzalara ait metrikler hesaplanmıştır. Sonuçlara göre, Kocanaz havzası diğer havzalara oranla düşük ve yüksek akım metriklerinde farklılık yansıtmıştır. Hidrolojik modellemeler bu bağlamda iklim değişikliği ve arazi kullanımı değişiminin anlaşılması açısından planlama ve havza yönetimi açısından fırsatlar sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Hidrolojik Modelleme
• Taşkın/Kuraklık
• SWAT
• Bartın Çayı Havzası

Kaynakça

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