Changes in the Distribution Areas of Conifer Trees in Anatolia

Öz

This study aims to estimate the responses of Cedrus libani, Abies cilicica, and Juniperus drupacea to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), present and future climate changes in Anatolia. For this purpose, the temporal and spatial distributions of these conifer species were modeled, based on global climate change scenarios. Accordingly, the temporal and spatial distributions of the studied species are predicted and back-projected using fossil pollen data, occurrence data, and 19 bioclimatic variables collected from the WorldClim database. The principal component analysis (PCA) method was applied to these variables, resulting in the identification of 8 variables for the species distribution model. Past and future climate information is based on CCSM4 and RCP 8.5 scenario was assumed for future projections. Furthermore, both MaxEnt 3.4.1 and ArcGIS 10.5 were utilized to develop the models. At every instance, the area under curve (AUC) test values that determine the accuracy of the projections is >0,90. Among the 8 bioclimatic variables, those that contributed the most to the models were as follows: Cedrus libani, BIO14 (%32,3), BIO8 (%23,7), BIO15 (%19,2); Abies cilicica BIO8 (%30,5), BIO14 (%24,1), BIO15 (%19,5); Juniperus drupacea, BIO15 (%38,1), BIO12 (%30,9), and BIO4 (%13,1). Cedrus libani, Abies cilicica, and Juniperus drupacea found suitable habitats in the south of Anatolia during the LGM, according to the results. From the Holocene onward, their distribution areas narrowed and reached the present-day borders. Future predictions indicate that some of the ecological conditions of the species will be lost, and their areas will narrow.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Climate change
• Species Distribution Model
• Cedrus libani
• Abies cilicica
• Juniperus drupacea
• Turkey

Anadolu’da Konifer Ağaçların Yayılış Alanlarındaki Değişimler

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Anadolu’da Cedrus libani, Abies cilicica ve Juniperus drupacea’nın Son Buzul Maksimumu, günümüz ve gelecekte iklim değişikliklerine olan/olacak tepkilerini tahmin etmektir. Bu amaç kapsamında ele alınan konifer türlerin, küresel iklim değişim senaryolarına bağlı model sonuçlarına göre Anadolu’da zamansal ve mekânsal dağılışları ortaya koyulmuştur. İncelenen türlerin zamansal ve mekânsal dağılışlarında tahminlerde bulunmak üzere fosil polen verileri, günümüz dağılış verileri ve WorldClim’den temin edilen 19 biyoiklimsel değişken kullanılmıştır. Bu değişkenlere PCA yöntemi uygulanmış ve tür dağılış modelleri için 8 değişken belirlenmiştir. Modeller CCSM4 modeli ve gelecek projeksiyonları için RCP 8.5 senaryosu ile üretilmiştir. Modellerin üretilmesi için MaxEnt 3.4.1 ve ArcGIS 10.5 yazılımı kullanılmıştır. Projeksiyonların doğruluklarını ölçen AUC test değerleri ise 0,90’nın üzerindedir. 8 biyoiklimsel değişken içinde modellere en fazla katkı sağlayan değişkenler; Cedrus libani için BIO14 %32,3, BIO8 %23,7, BIO15 %19,2; Abies cilicica için BIO8 %30,5, BIO14 %24,1, BIO15 %19,5; Juniperus drupacea için BIO15 %38,1, BIO12 %30,9, BIO4 %13,1’dir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre Cedrus libani, Abies cilicica ve Juniperus drupacea Son Buzul Maksimumu’nda Anadolu’nun güneyinde uygun yaşam alanı bulmuştur. Holosen’den itibaren dağılış sahalarını daraltarak günümüz sınırlarına ulaşmışlardır. Gelecekte ise Cedrus libani, Abies cilicica ve Juniperus drupacea’nın ekolojik isteklerinden bir kısmının kaybolacağı ve alanlarını daraltacağı öngörülebilir. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

• İklim değişikliği
• Tür Dağılış Modeli
• Cedrus libani
• Abies cilicica
• Juniperus drupacea
• Türkiye

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