An Econometric Study on the Relationship between High-Tech Product Exports, Foreign Direct Investments, and Economic Growth in Turkey

Öz

Economic growth stands out as one of the basic macroeconomic goals of national economies. There are many studies on which factors affect economic growth. The difference between this study and other studies is that it investigates the economic growth relationship in depth using high-tech product exports, foreign direct investments, labour and capital variables. This study uses high-tech exports, foreign direct investments, labour, capital and economic growth variables for the Turkish economy for the period 1990-2023 are used. As an empirical method, robustness tests were performed using methods with various strength characteristics. In this context, the traditional ADF and PP unit root tests and the Fourier ADF unit root test were applied. The cointegration methodology is based on the conventional Shin (1994) cointegration test and the Fourier Shin cointegration test proposed by Tsong et al. (2016). The FMOLS, DOLS, and CCR techniques were used as cointegration estimators. According to the empirical findings, it is concluded that increases in the exports of high-tech products, foreign direct investments, labour and capital increase economic growth. The fact that all the estimators with different power properties yield similar f indings guarantees the robustness of the results. Finally, Hacker and Hatemi-J (2006) and Hatemi-J (2012) tests were applied to determine the bootstrap symmetric and asymmetric causality relationships between the variables. These results also support the long-run co-integration estimator results. Accordingly, there is a symmetric and asymmetric causality relationship between the exports of high-tech products, foreign direct investment, labour and capital variables and economic growth.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Foreign direct investment
• Economic growth
• High-technology product exports
• Fourier Shin cointegration
• Asymmetric causality

Türkiye’de Yüksek Teknolojili Ürün İhracatı, Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir İnceleme

Öz

Ekonomik büyüme, ülke ekonomilerinin temel makroekonomik hedeflerinden biri olarak öne çıkmaktadır. Ekonomik büyümenin hangi faktörlerden etkilendiğine yönelik çok sayıda çalışma bulunmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın diğer çalışmalardan farkı yüksek teknolojili ürün ihracatı, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ile emek ve sermaye değişkenlerini kullanarak ekonomik büyüme ilişkisini derinlemesine araştırılmasıdır. Çalışmada Türkiye ekonomisine ait 1990-2023 dönemine ait yüksek teknolojili ürün ihracatı, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar, emek, sermaye ve ekonomik büyüme değişkenlerinden yararlanılmıştır. Ampirik metot olarak çeşitli güç özelliklerine sahip yöntemlerden yararlanılarak sağlamlık testleri gerçekleştirilmiştir. Bu bağlamda geleneksel ADF ve PP birim kök testleri ile Fourier ADF birim kök testi uygulanmıştır. Eşbütünleşme yöntemi olarak geleneksel Shin (1994) eşbütünleşme testi ile Tsong ve ark. (2016) tarafından önerilen Fourier Shin eşbütünleşme testinde yararlanılmıştır. Eşbütünleşme tahmincisi olarak FMOLS, DOLS ve CCR teknikleri kullanılmıştır. Ampirik bulgulara göre yüksek teknolojili ürün ihracatı, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar, emek ve sermayede meydana gelen artışların ekonomik büyümeyi artırdığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Farklı güç özelliklerine sahip tüm tahmincilerin benzer bulgular ortaya koyması sonuçların sağlamlığını garanti etmektedir. Son olarak değişkenler arasındaki bootstrap simetrik ve asimetrik nedensellik ilişkilerin tespitine yönelik olarak Hacker ve Hatemi-J (2006) ile Hatemi-J (2012) testleri uygulanmıştır. Bu sonuçlar aynı zamanda uzun dönem eşbütün leşme tahmincisi sonuçlarını da desteklemektedir. Buna göre yüksek teknolojili ürün ihracatı, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar, emek ve sermaye değişkenlerinden ekonomik büyümeye doğru simetrik ve asimetrik nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Doğrudan yabancı yatırım
• Ekonomik büyüme
• Yüksek teknolojili ürün ihracatı
• Fourier Shin eşbütünleşme
• Asimetrik nedensellik

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