Forecasting Soybean Production in Turkey: A Comparative Analysis of Automated and Traditional Methods

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 2 Sayı: 1, 19 - 31, 30.06.2024

Hakan Duman

Öz

Türkiye’s climate and soil are well-suited for the cultivation of oilseed crops, which are of vital importance to various industries and human and animal diets. Among oilseeds, soybeans, a legume, possess a distinctive nutritional profile. While existing research covers soybean production in Türkiye, this study aims to: a) evaluate production levels using different forecasting algorithms to identify the most accurate model, and b) based on the chosen model, forecast future production and assess the current and future entrepreneurial potential of the soybean industry in Türkiye.
Soybean production data (1990-2022) from TURKSTAT was divided into training (n=25) and test (n=8) sets for cross-validation. By applying univariate time series methods, including ARIMA, SES, NNAR, MN, and Naive to the training dataset, it was found that ARIMA (1,1,1) performed best according to test set RMSE values. The performance ranking (in terms of RMSE) was as follows: ARIMA (13019) < SES (13888) < Naive (14240) < NNAR (58393) < MN (80418). Notably, for this dataset, the performance of automated processes was relatively worse than that of manual methods, suggesting that relying solely on automated methods may lead to suboptimal forecasting results. These findings underscore the importance of human oversight in the use of automated algorithms for time series forecasting and highlight the need for caution when employing automated methods.
The ARIMA (1,1,1) model predicts a flat trend in production from 2023 to 2032, with an initial production volume of 154 516 tonnes and a slight decline to 153 607 tonnes. This predicted stagnation implies that, in the context of economic and population growth, soybean production will fall further behind domestic demand, leading to increased import reliance. These findings are of serious importance to farmers and policymakers alike, as they can assist in the formulation of informed decisions pertaining to resource allocation, crop planning, and market strategies. Local producers may potentially benefit from increased production efficiency, improved competitiveness, and potential revenue growth by catering to both domestic and export markets. Furthermore, an understanding of these trade dynamics can assist stakeholders in identifying potential avenues for collaboration or investment within the Turkish soybean industry. Further analysis of these results is ongoing in order to gain deeper insights into the factors influencing soybean production trends in Türkiye.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Soybean production, Türkiye, Time series forecasting, ARIMA algorithm, NNAR, Auto-ARIMA

Kaynakça

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