Merkez Bankalarının Para Politikası Duyurularında Okunabilirlik: FED, ECB ve TCMB Örnekleri

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 2, 115 - 134, 30.12.2025

Mehmet Fatih Görgün , Erhan Demireli , Sevinc Güler Özçalık

https://doi.org/10.56203/iyd.1741719

Öz

Merkez bankalarının politika iletişimi, yalnızca alınan kararların kamuoyuna duyurulması süreci değil, aynı zamanda ekonomik beklentilerin yönlendirilmesinde ve piyasa güveninin sağlanmasında kritik bir rol oynamaktadır. Merkez bankalarının politika iletişiminde açık ve anlaşılır dil kullanımı, piyasa aktörlerinin kararları daha doğru yorumlamasına olanak tanımakta ve makroekonomik istikrarı desteklemektedir. Bu çalışmada, Amerikan Merkez Bankası (Federal Reserve System [FED]), Avrupa Merkez Bankası (European Central Bank [ECB]) ve Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB) tarafından yayınlanan para politikası basın duyurularının okunabilirlik analizleri gerçekleştirilmiştir. Flesch-Kincaid Okunabilirlik Testi (Flesch-Kincaid Readability Tests [FK]), Gunning Fog Endeksi (Gunning Fog Index [FOG]), Gobbledygook Ölçüsü (Simple Measure of Gobbledygook [SMOG]), Coleman-Liau Endeksi (Coleman-Liau Index [CLI]), Otomatik Okunabilirlik Endeksi (Automated Readability Index [ARI]) ve Lesbarhets Endeksi (Lesbarhetsindex [LIX]) yöntemleri kullanılarak yapılan hesaplamalar, merkez bankalarının iletişim stratejilerine dair bulgular sunmaktadır. Analizler, duyuru metinlerinin zaman içinde nasıl değiştiğini ve bankaların kullandığı dilin anlaşılabilirlik düzeylerini ortaya koymaktadır. Ayrıca çalışma, okunabilirlik analizinin diğer metin analizi teknikleri ile birlikte kullanılarak daha sağlıklı sonuçlara ulaşılabileceğini vurgulamaktadır. Bu yaklaşım, ekonomik metinlerin daha bütüncül bir şekilde değerlendirilmesini sağlayarak, iletişim stratejilerinin yeniden şekillendirilmesine katkıda bulunacaktır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Okunabilirlik analizi , doğal dil işleme , merkez bankası iletişimi

Readability in Central Banks’ Monetary Policy Announcements: The Cases of FED, ECB, and CBRT

Öz

Central bank policy communication is not only the process of announcing decisions to the public but also plays a critical role in guiding economic expectations and maintaining market confidence. The use of clear and comprehensible language in central bank communications enables market participants to interpret policy decisions more accurately, thereby supporting macroeconomic stability. In this study, the readability of monetary policy press releases published by the Federal Reserve System (FED), the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) is analyzed. The calculations are based on various readability metrics, including the Flesch-Kincaid Readability Tests (FK), Gunning Fog Index (FOG), Simple Measure of Gobbledygook (SMOG), Coleman-Liau Index (CLI), Automated Readability Index (ARI), and the Lesbarhetsindex (LIX). These methods provide insights into the communication strategies employed by the central banks. The analyses reveal how the content and structure of press releases have evolved over time and uncover the levels of clarity in the language used by each bank. Furthermore, the study emphasizes that combining readability analysis with other text analysis techniques—such as sentiment analysis, topic modeling, and text mining—can lead to more accurate and comprehensive findings. This integrated approach allows for a more holistic evaluation of economic texts and contributes to the enhancement of central banks' communication strategies.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Readability analysis , natural language processing , central bank communication

Kaynakça

• Antunes H. and Lopes C.T. (2019). Analyzing the Adequacy of Readability Indicators to a Non-English Language. 10th International Conference of the CLEF Association, CLEF 2019, Lugano, Switzerland. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-28577-7_10 in 26.02.2025.
• Baumgärtner M. and Zahner J. (2023). Whatever it takes to understand a central banker: Embedding their words using neural networks. Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10419/280939 in 17.02.2025.
• Bholat D., Broughton N., Parker A., Ter Meer J. and Walczak E. (2018). Enhancing central bank communications with behavioural insights. Retrieved from https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2018/enhancing-central-bank-communications-with-behavioural-insights.pdf in 02.03.2025.
• Bjerkander L. and Glas A. (2024). Talking in a language that everyone can understand? Clarity of speeches by the ECB Executive Board. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103200 in 25.11.2025.
• Carotta G., Mello M. and Ponce J. (2023). Monetary policy communication and inflation expectations: New evidence about tone and readability. Latin American Journal of Central Banking, 4 (3), 1-17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.latcb.2023.100088.
• Celler J. (2024). Readability and sentiment analysis of central bank communication in central and eastern Europe. Journal of Advanced Computational Intelligence and Intelligent Informatics, 28 (4), 1018-1033. https://doi.org/10.20965/jaciii.2024.p1018.
• Ciunova-Shuleska A., Palamidovska-Sterjadovska N., Jakimova T. and Trenovski B. (2025). Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1080/00128775.2024.2304212 in 25.11.2025.
• Deslongchamps, Alexandre (2018). Readability and the Bank of Canada. Retrieved from https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/06/staff-analytical-note-2018-20/#footnote-2 in 18.02.2025.
• Duan Y., Fan X. and Wang Z. (2025). Text readability of regulatory policies and bank profit efficiency. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2025.103096 in 25.11.2025.
• Evdokimova T., Mohácsi P.N., Ponomarenko O. and Ribakova E. (2023). Central banks and policy communication: How emerging markets have outperformed the Fed and ECB. Retrieved from https://www.piie.com/publications/working-papers/2023/central-banks-and-policy-communication-how-emerging-markets-have in 17.02.2025.
• Erokhin A. and Klachkova O. (2024). Influence of Readability and Tone of Bank of Russia Text on Inflation Expectations. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.55959/MSU0130-0105-6-60-3-2 in 25.11.2025.
• Ferrara F.M. and Angino S. (2021). Does clarity make central banks more engaging? Lessons from ECB communications. European Journal of Political Economy, 74, 1-15. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2021.102146.
• Fullwood J. (2016). A cat, a hat and a simple measure of gobbledygook: How readable is your writing? Retrieved from https://bankunderground.co.uk/2016/10/04/a-cat-a-hat-and-a-simple-measure-of-gobbledygook-how-readable-is-your-writing/ in 02.03.2025.
• Gifuni L. and Ravazzolo F. (2025). When Topics Drive Central Bank Transparency. Retrieved from https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5310029 in 25.11.2025.
• Glas A. and Müller L.S. (2021). Talking in a language that everyone can understand? Transparency of speeches by the ECB Executive Board. Retrieved from http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3790506 in 17.02.2025.
• Görgün M. F. ve Demireli E. (2024). Merkez bankası para politikası metinleri için kosinüs benzerlik skorları: FED basın duyuruları üzerine ampirik bir analiz. Uluslararası Sosyal ve Ekonomik Çalışmalar Dergisi, 5(1), 58-77. https://doi.org/10.62001/gsijses.1491120.
• Görgün M. F. ve Demireli E. (2025). TCMB para politikası basın duyurularının kosinüs benzerliği, konu modellemesi ve duygu tonu temelinde analizi. Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi (67), 217-236. https://doi.org/10.30794/pausbed.1611268.
• Görgün M. F., Demireli E., ve Ural M. (2025). TCMB İletişiminde Metin Yapısı ve Okunabilirlik Analizi: Para Politikası Basın Duyuruları Üzerine Bir İnceleme. Uluslararası Sosyal ve Ekonomik Çalışmalar Dergisi, 6(1), 110-123. https://doi.org/10.62001/gsijses.1667620.
• Huang J. and Simon J. (2021). Central bank communication: One size does not fit all. Retrieved from https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2021/pdf/rdp2021-05.pdf in 17.02.2025. Istrefi K. (2019). Comment on: Enhancing central bank communications using simple and relatable information. Journal of Monetary Economics, 108, 16-20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.09.001.
• Loughran T. and McDonald B. (2020). Textual analysis in finance. Annual Review of Financial Economics, 12, 357-375. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-financial-012820-032249.
• Mathur A. and Sengupta R. (2019). Analysing monetary policy statements of the Reserve Bank of India. Retrieved from https://repec.graduateinstitute.ch/pdfs/Working_papers/HEIDWP08-2019.pdf in 17.02.2025.
• Mumtaz H., Saleheen J. and Spitznagel R. (2024). Keep It Simple: Central Bank Communication and Asset Prices. Retrieved from https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4518806 in 25.11.2025.
• Munday T. and Brookes J. (2021). Mark my words: the transmission of central bank communication to the general public via the print media. Retrieved from https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-paper/2021/the-transmission-of-central-bank-communication-to-the-general-public-via-the-print-media in 17.02.2025.
• Nicolay R. and Oliveira A.J. (2019). Inflation volatility, monetary policy signaling and clarity of the central bank communication: Evidence from an inflation targeting emerging economy. Journal of Economic Studies, 46(2), 266-283. https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-10-2017-0293.
• Schmeling M. and Wagner C. (2025). Does Central Bank Tone Move Asset Prices? Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022109024000073 in 25.11.2025.
• Silva T.C., Moriya K. and Veyrune R.M. (2025). From Text to Quantified Insights: A Large-Scale LLM Analysis of Central Bank Communication. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229013802.001 in 25.11.2025.
• Szyszko M. and Rutkowska A. and Kliber A. (2022). Do words affect expectations? The effect of central banks communication on consumer inflation expectations. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 86, 221-229. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2022.07.009.
• Tumala, M.M. and Omotosho B.S. (2019). A text mining analysis of central bank monetary policy communication in Nigeria. CBN Journal of Applied Statistics, 10, 73-107. https://doi.org/10.33429/Cjas.10219.3/6.