Determination of Potential Distribution Areas of Oreochromis niloticus in Turkey: Ecological Niche Modeling Approach

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 4, 485 - 492, 31.07.2025

Oğuzcan Mol , Özgür Emiroğlu

https://doi.org/10.35229/jaes.1713798

Öz

Oreochromis niloticus (Nile tilapia) is a globally cultivated aquaculture species capable of readily adapting to natural environments following escapes from aquaculture facilities. Identifying suitable habitats for this species is critical for effective aquaculture management. This study employed hydrological, physiographic, anthropogenic, soil, hydroclimatic, and bioclimatic data to determine the current and future suitable habitats of O. niloticus in Türkiye, aiming to assess its potential responses to climate change-induced habitat shifts. The results indicate that annual mean temperature (BIO1, 31.7%), actual evapotranspiration (aet_mm, 20.5%), and mean temperature of the driest quarter (BIO9, 15%) are key environmental and bioclimatic variables influencing the species’ distribution. Future projections suggest that rising temperatures may facilitate the species’ expansion into broader areas, potentially leading to the establishment of new invasive populations. Consequently, stringent management practices in aquaculture are essential to mitigate ecological risks.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Oreochromis niloticus , Species distribution models (SDMs) , MaxEnt , Climate change

Oreochromis niloticus’un Türkiye’deki Potansiyel Dağılım Alanlarının Belirlenmesi: Ekolojik Niş Modellemesi Yaklaşımı

Öz

Oreochromis niloticus (Nil Tilapyası), dünya genelinde yetiştiriciliği yaygın olarak yapılan bir türdür. Nil tilapyası akuakültür tesislerinden doğal ortamlara kaçış sonrası bu yeni alanlara kolay uyum sağlayabilmektedir. Tilapyanın uyum sağlayabileceği yeni alanların bilinmesi akuakültür yönetiminde önemlidir. Bu çalışmada, iklim değişikliğinin türün habitat değişimlerine olası tepkilerini belirlemek amacıyla hidroloji, fizyografi, antropojenik, toprak, hydroklimatik ve biyoklimatik veriler kullanılarak türün Türkiye’deki güncel ve gelecek uygun habitatları belirlenmiştir. Çalışma sonucunda, O. niloticus’un yıllık ortalama sıcaklık (BIO1) %31.7, gerçek buharlaşma (aet_mm) %20.5 ve en kurak çeyreğin ortalama sıcaklığı (BIO9)’un %15 türün dağılımında etkili çevresel ve biyoklimatik değişkenler olduğu görülmüştür. Geleceğe yönelik projeksiyonlar ise türün sıcaklık artışıyla birlikte daha geniş alanlara yayılabileceğini göstermektedir. Bu durum türün dağılım alanlarını genişleterek yeni istila alanları oluşturabileceği bu sebeple akuakültür yapılırken daha dikkatli üretim yapılması önem arz ettiğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Oreochromis niloticus , MaxEnt , İklim değişilikliği , Tür dağılım modelleri (SDM'ler)

Kaynakça

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