Analysis of Vegetable Production Trends, Growth Rates, Instability Index, and Decomposition in Nigeria

Öz

The research examined the trends, growth rates, and instability indices related to the output, harvested area, and yield of major vegetables (Carrot and Turnip; (Daucus carota and Brassica rapa); Chillies and peppers, dry (Capsicum spp., Pimenta spp.), Chillies and peppers fresh (Capsicum spp., Pimenta spp.) green; Pineapple (Ananas comosus), and Tomato (Solanum lycopersicum)) in Nigeria. It also analyzed the decomposition of their production. Utilizing secondary data sourced from the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) covering the period from 1961 to 2023, the study revealed fluctuating trends in output, harvested area, and yield of vegetables across the specified timeframe. The exponential growth rate, compound growth rates, Cuddy-Della Valle instability index (CDI) and the Coppock Instability Index (COI) for tomato yield from 1961 – 2023 were identified as -1.59%, -1.63%, 15.48, and 52.64 respectively. For pineapple yield within the same period, the estimates were; 0.51%, 0.43%, 3.13 and 40.58 respectively. For carrot and turnips the estimates were; 0.36%, 0.28%, 2.48, and 39.59 respectively. The instability indices of vegetable yields were relatively low, indicating low activities in the sub-sector in Nigeria. A decomposition analysis of the total effect of vegetable outputs showed that the land area effect accounted for 56.10% for carrot and turnips, 75.08% for chillies and pepper dry, 116.15% for chillies and pepper, green, 65.45% for pineapple, 290.56% for tomato, and 46.93% for other vegetables. The findings suggest that the growth of land area and not improve technology is the major driving force of vegetable output in Nigeria. Consequently, it is recommended that various programs be implemented within the sub-sector to stimulate technology adoption among farmers and potentially enhance both outputs and yields.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• growth rate
• instability index
• Vegetable
• Decomposition

Analysis of Vegetable Production Trends, Growth Rates, Instability Index, and Decomposition in Nigeria

Öz

Araştırmada, Nijerya'daki başlıca sebzelerin (Havuç ve Şalgam; (Daucus carota ve Brassica rapa); Acı ve biberler, kuru (Capsicum spp., Pimenta spp.), Acı ve biberler taze (Capsicum spp., Pimenta spp.), yeşil; Ananas (Ananas comosus) ve Domates (Solanum lycopersicum)) çıktı, hasat alanı ve verimiyle ilgili eğilimler, büyüme oranları ve istikrarsızlık endeksleri incelenmiştir. Ayrıca, üretimlerinin ayrıştırılması da analiz edilmiştir. Gıda ve Tarım Örgütü'nden (FAO) 1961-2023 dönemini kapsayan ikincil veriler kullanılarak yapılan çalışma, belirtilen zaman dilimi boyunca sebzelerin çıktı, hasat alanı ve veriminde dalgalanan eğilimleri ortaya koymuştur. 1961-2023 yılları arasında domates verimi için üstel büyüme oranı, bileşik büyüme oranları, Cuddy-Della Valle istikrarsızlık endeksi (CDI) ve Coppock İstikrarsızlık Endeksi (COI) sırasıyla -%1,59, -%1,63, 15,48 ve 52,64 olarak belirlendi. Aynı dönemdeki ananas verimi için tahminler sırasıyla; %0,51, %0,43, 3,13 ve 40,58 olarak bulundu. Havuç ve şalgam için tahminler sırasıyla; %0,36, %0,28, 2,48 ve 39,59 olarak bulundu. Sebze verimlerinin istikrarsızlık endeksleri nispeten düşük olup, Nijerya'daki alt sektörde düşük faaliyetleri göstermektedir. Sebze çıktılarının toplam etkisinin ayrıştırma analizi, arazi alanı etkisinin havuç ve şalgam için %56,10, acı biber ve kuru biber için %75,08, acı biber ve yeşil biber için %116,15, ananas için %65,45, domates için %290,56 ve diğer sebzeler için %46,93 olduğunu gösterdi. Bulgular, Nijerya'daki sebze çıktısının ana itici gücünün teknolojiyi iyileştirmek değil arazi alanı büyümesi olduğunu göstermektedir. Sonuç olarak, çiftçiler arasında teknoloji benimsemesini teşvik etmek ve potansiyel olarak hem çıktıları hem de verimi artırmak için alt sektörde çeşitli programların uygulanması önerilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Büyüme hızı
• istikrarsızlık endeksi
• sebze
• ayrışma
• sebze,

Kaynakça

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