Nijerya'nın Kaduna ve Kano Eyaletlerinde Darıya Yönelik Hane Halkı Talebinin Tahmini: Doğrusallaştırılmış Neredeyse İdeal Talep Sistemi Modelinin Uygulanması.

Öz

Bu çalışma, Nijerya'nın Kaduna ve Kano eyaletlerinde darıya olan hanehalkı talebini tahmin etmiştir: doğrusallaştırılmış neredeyse ideal talep sistemi modelinin uygulanması. 200 darı yetiştiricisini seçmek için çok aşamalı bir örnekleme tasarımı kullanılmıştır. İyi yapılandırılmış bir ankete dayalı birincil veriler kullanılmıştır. Veriler, tanımlayıcı istatistikler ve doğrusallaştırılmış neredeyse ideal talep sistemi modeli (LA-AIDS) kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Sonuçlar, darı yetiştiricilerinin ortalama yaşının 42 olduğunu ve ortalama 8 yılın okula gittiğini göstermektedir. Hanehalkı büyüklükleri, hane başına ortalama 8 üye ile büyüktür. Ayrıca, darı, -0,381'lik kendi fiyat esnekliğine sahip fiyat esnek olmayan bir talep sergilemiştir; bu, fiyat değişikliklerinin hanehalkı tüketimi üzerinde küçük etkilere sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Tahmini 0,787'lik gelir esnekliği, darıyı normal bir mal olarak sınıflandırmış ve tüketimin gelirle birlikte arttığını göstermiştir. Çapraz fiyat esneklikleri, darı, mısır ve sorgum arasında zayıf bir ikame edilebilirlik göstermiştir; bu da darının çalışma alanındaki haneler için benzersiz kültürel ve diyetsel rolünü yansıtmaktadır. Ayrıca, regresyon analizi, yaş, cinsiyet, eğitim ve hanehalkı büyüklüğü gibi sosyo-ekonomik faktörlerin, darı talebini pozitif ve anlamlı şekilde etkileyen medeni durum (0,3187) dışında istatistiksel olarak önemsiz olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Bu bulgular, hanehalkı darı talebinin sosyoekonomik özelliklerden ziyade fiyat ve harcama dinamiklerinden daha fazla etkilendiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Politika çıkarımları arasında, çiftçilere gübre, geliştirilmiş tohumlar ve krediye erişim gibi gerekli girdilerin sağlanması yoluyla darı tarımının geliştirilmesi ve özellikle beslenme çeşitliliği ve tüketici tercihleri bağlamında fiyat istikrarı, katma değer ve beslenme farkındalığı kampanyaları yoluyla darı tüketiminin teşvik edilmesi yer almaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Hanehalkı Talebi
• Darı Tüketimi
• Yerine geçmek
• : Doğrusallaştırılmış Neredeyse İdeal Talep Sistemi Modeli

Estimating Household Demand for Millet in Kaduna and Kano States, Nigeria: Application of Linearized Almost Ideal Demand System Model.

Öz

This study estimated household demand for millet in Kaduna and Kano States, Nigeria: application of linearized almost ideal demand system model. A multi-stage sampling design was utilized to select 200 millet growers. Primary data were used based on a well-structured questionnaire. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and linearized almost ideal demand system model (LA-AIDS). The result shows that the mean age of millet growers is 42 years with an average of 8 years spent in attending school education. The household sizes were large with an average of 8 members per household. Also, millet exhibited price inelastic demand with an own price elasticity of – 0.381, indicating that price changes exerted small effects on household consumption. The estimated income elasticity of 0.787 classified millet as a normal good suggesting that consumption increases with income. Cross price elasticities showed a weak substitutability between millet, maize and sorghum reflecting millets unique cultural and dietary role to households in the study area. Furthermore, the regression analysis further revealed that socio- economic factors such as age, gender, education and household size were statistically insignificant except marital status (0.3187) which positively and significantly influence millet demand. These findings highlight that household millet demand is more strongly influenced by price and expenditure dynamics than socio-economic characteristics. Policy implication include the need to enhance millet farming through provision of necessary inputs for farmers such like fertilizers, improved seeds and access to credit and the need to promote millet consumption through price stabilization, value addition and nutritional awareness campaigns particularly in the context of dietary diversification and consumer preferences.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Household Demand
• Millet Consumption
• Substitute
• Linearized Almost Ideal Demand System Model

Kaynakça

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