Süregelen Rekabetler Yaklaşımı Çerçevesinde Türk–Rus İlişkilerinin Analizi

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 7 Sayı: 2, 39 - 57, 30.12.2025

Osman Ergül

Öz

Bu inceleme makalesinin amacı, Süregelen Rekabetler Yaklaşımı’nın (Enduring Rivalries Approach – ERA) teorik gelişimini ve temel kavramlarını sistematik biçimde ele alarak, Osmanlı–Rus ilişkilerinin uzun dönemli rekabet örüntülerini bu çerçevede değerlendirmektir. ERA literatürü, savaşların ve militarize uyuşmazlıkların büyük bölümünün belirli devlet çiftleri arasında yoğunlaştığını ve bu rekabetlerin zaman, aktör ve konu tutarlılığı içerdiğini savunur. Çalışma, ERA’nın kavramsal temellerini, rekabet türleri ve tipolojilerini, rekabetin nedenlerini (politik şoklar, topraksal anlaşmazlıklar, ekonomik rekabet) ve modellerini (artan, azalan, dış bükey, iç bükey, dalgalı, düz çizgi) ayrıntılı biçimde incelemektedir. Bu çerçeve, Osmanlı–Rus ilişkilerinin yaklaşık beş yüzyıllık dönem boyunca süreklilik gösteren, yapısal olarak gömülü bir rekabet modeli oluşturduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Makale, Türk–Rus rekabetinin ERA'nın öngördüğü değişkenlerle yüksek ölçüde örtüştüğünü ve modern dönemdeki rekabet–işbirliği dengesinin tarihsel temellerini anlamaya katkı sunduğunu ileri sürmektedir.
Anahtar Kelimeler: Süregelen Rekabetler Yaklaşımı, Politik Şoklar, Topraksal Anlaşmazlık Türk–Rus İlişkileri, Rekabet Modeli

Anahtar Kelimeler

rusya , osmanlı , rekabet , süregiden rekabet , topraksal çatışma , ikili rekabet

An Analysis of Turkish–Russian Relations within the Framework of the Enduring Rivalries Approach

Öz

Abstract
This review article seeks to analyze the theoretical underpinnings and conceptual development of the Enduring Rivalries Approach (ERA) while evaluating the long-term dynamics of Ottoman–Russian ties within this context. ERA literature posits that the majority of wars and armed interstate disputes are concentrated among particular pairs of states, exhibiting consistency in terms of time, actors, and issues. The article systematically examines the fundamental conceptual elements of ERA, encompassing rivalry typologies, temporal and structural variables, causal factors like political shocks, territorial disputes, and economic competition, along with principal evolutionary models (increasing, decreasing, convex, concave, oscillatory, and flat patterns). This analysis reveals that Ottoman–Russian interactions represent a deeply rooted, enduring competition marked by persistent conflict catalysts and structural consistency. The paper asserts that the Turkish–Russian competition closely corresponds with ERA's fundamental principles and provides theoretical insights into the historical underpinnings of modern conflict–cooperation dynamics.
Keywords: Enduring Rivalries, Political Shocks, Territorial Disputes, Turkish–Russian Relations, Rivalry Model

Anahtar Kelimeler

Russia , türkiye , rivalry , enduring rivalry , dyadic rivalry , territorial conflict

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