Dış Ticaret ve Göç İlişkisi Üzerine Bir Çekim Modeli Analizi: Almanya Örneği

Öz

With the transformation of countries into a more integrated structure through globalization, there has been a significant increase in the mobility of humans as well as volume of economic activities among countries. When the issue is considered within the scope of EU, it is seen that Germany is a center of attraction. As of 2017, it was observed that Germany was the country with the highest number of immigrants in the union and most of the migration was from CEE countries. In this context, the aim of this study is to examine whether the migration Germany got from CEE countries in the period of 2000-2016 has had an impact on the foreign trade of the country. As a result of analysis carried out with the panel gravity model, it has been found that the migration Germany got from the mentioned countries does not have a significant effect on the import and export of the country. On the other hand, it has been concluded that membership of origin countries to the Customs Union and GDP levels has a positive significant impact on Germany’s export, whereas per capita, income levels of origin countries and distance between origin countries and Germany has a negative significant effect.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• International migration,Foreign trade,European Union,panel gravity model

Dış Ticaret ve Göç İlişkisi Üzerine Bir Çekim Modeli Analizi: Almanya Örneği

Öz

Küreselleşme sürecinde ülkelerin daha entegre bir yapılanmaya gitmesiyle birlikte ülkeler arasındaki iktisadi faaliyetlerin hacminde olduğu kadar insan hareketliliğinde de önemli artışlar meydana gelmiştir. Konuya Avrupa Birliği kapsamında bakıldığında, birlik içerisinde Almanya’nın bir cazibe merkezi özelliği taşıdığı görülmektedir. Zira 2017 yılı itibariyle birlik içinde en fazla göç alan ülkenin Almanya olduğu, göçün büyük kısmının ise Orta ve Doğu Avrupa ülkelerinden gerçekleştiği görülmüştür. Teorik açıdan ise bir ülkeye gerçekleşen göçün, o ülkenin dış ticareti üzerinde etkili olduğu bilinen bir olgudur. Çeşitli kanallar aracılığıyla göç, ülkenin gerek ithalatını gerek ihracatını arttırabilmektedir. Bu kapsamda, bu çalışmada Almanya’nın Orta ve Doğu Avrupa ülkelerinden 2000-2016 döneminde aldığı göçün, ülkenin dış ticareti üzerinde etki yaratıp yaratmadığının incelenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Panel çekim modeli ile gerçekleştirilen analiz sonucunda söz konusu dönemde Almanya’nın adı geçen ülkelerden aldığı göçün ülkenin ithalatı ve ihracatı üzerinde anlamlı bir etki oluşturmadığı bulgusu elde edilmiştir. Buna karşılık, Almanya’nın ihracatı üzerinde ülkelerin Gümrük Birliği’ne üyeliklerinin ve GSYH’lerinin pozitif, kişi başına düşen gelir düzeylerinin ve Almanya ile aralarındaki uzaklığın ise negatif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkiye sahip olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Uluslararası göç,dış ticaret,Avrupa Birliği,panel çekim modeli

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