The Impact of Foreign Trade on Immıgratıon from Turkey to Germany: ARDL Bounds Test Approach

Öz

Due to developments in the field of transportation and communication, communication and technological facilities have sped up the migration movements between countries by reducing the cost of migration. Additionally, as a result of developments in facilities and technology provided by globalization, the trade volume of the world is increasing rapidly. This study tested the impact of foreign trade on migrants from Turkey to Germany from the years 1988-2018 with the ARDL bounds testing approach for the first time. Hereby, it is aimed to make an original contribution by the use of this method. This study sought to answer the question of what the impact of Turkey’s import and export has been on outgoing immigrants from Turkey to Germany from 1988-2018. The hypotheses of this study are that Turkey’s imports and exports to Germany are increasing the migratory flows between Turkey and Germany and that foreign trade and migration are complementary between Turkey and Germany. According to the results of the study, what has been found is a cointegration relationship between Turkey’s foreign trade with Germany and immigrants from Turkey to Germany. Moreover; If there is a 1% increase to Turkey’s exports to Germany, the immigrant flow increase 0.30% to Germany from Turkey. If there is a 1% increase to Germany’s imports to Turkey, there is a 0.21% increase in the immigrant flows to Germany from Turkey.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Migration
• foreign trade
• ARDL bounds test

Dış Ticaretin Türkiye’den Almanya’ya Giden Göçmenler Üzerindeki Etkisi: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı

Öz

Ulaşım ve haberleşme alanında yaşanan gelişmeler, iletişim alanında ve teknolojik sahada elde edilmiş kolaylıklar, göç etmenin maliyetini azaltarak; ülkeler arasındaki göç hareketlerini hızlandırmaktadır. Diğer taraftan, küreselleşmenin sağlamış olduğu kolaylıklar ve teknolojik gelişmeler neticesinde dünya ticaret hacmi hızla artmaktadır. Bu çalışmada 1988-2018 yılları itibariyle Türkiye’nin Almanya ile gerçekleştirdiği dış ticaretin Türkiye’den Almanya’ya giden göçmenler üzerindeki etkisini ilk kez ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı ile test edilmektedir. Bu nedenle kullanılmış olan yöntem ile özgün bir katkı sağlamış olmak hedeflenmektedir. Bu çalışmanın sorusu: 1988-2018 yıllarında Türkiye’nin Almanya ile olan ithalat ve ihracatının Türkiye’den Almanya’ya giden göçmenler üzerindeki etkisi ne olmuştur? Biçiminde oluşturulmuştur. Bu çalışmanın hipotezleri ise; Hipotez 1: “Türkiye’nin Almanya ile olan ithalat ve ihracatı göç hareketlerini artırmaktadır” ve Hipotez 2: “Türkiye ve Almanya arasındaki dış ticaret ve göç ilişkisi tamamlayıcılık ilişkisi niteliğindedir.” şeklindedir. Çalışmadan elde edilen uygulamalı analiz sonuçlarına göre, Türkiye’nin Almanya ile olan dış ticareti ve Türkiye’den Almanya’ya giden göçmenler arasında eş bütünleşme ilişkisi bulunmaktadır. Bu sonuca ek olarak; Türkiye’nin ithalat ve ihracatında %1’lik artış olduğunda, Türkiye’den Almanya’ya giden göçmenlerin oranı ithalat ve ihracat için sırası ile %0.30 ve %0.21 oranında artmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Göç
• dış ticaret
• ARDL sınır testi

Kaynakça

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