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The Nexus Between the Democratic Transition and the Structural Transformation

Yıl 2020, Sayı: 61, 173 - 187, 30.06.2020
https://doi.org/10.26650/JECS2019-0032

Öz

There are several theoretical and empirical papers on the structural transformation but there is not a study relating structural transformation with the political regime switch in the country. This paper aims to fill the gap in relevant literature by empirically examining the linkage between the political regime switch and the structure of the economy. The main purpose of this paper is to explore the impact of the political regime switch on the share of the agricultural value added in the GDP. Due to endogeneity issues, Difference GMM methodology is used to test the hypothesis that the democratization leads to the structural transformation of the economy by using data for 43 countries over the period from 1970-2016. The estimation results confirm that the share of agricultural value in total value added is higher when the country is ruled by an autocratic system rather than a democratic system. Moreover, the estimation results indicate that per capita GDP, arable land, and trade openness have a negative significant, whereas financial development, fertility, and population have a positive significant impact on the value added share of agriculture.

Kaynakça

  • Acemoglu, D., & Robinson, J. A. (2001). A theory of political transitions. American Economic Review, 91(4), 938– 963. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.91.4.938
  • Acemoglu, D. (2003). Why not a political Coase theorem? Social conflict, commitment, and politics. Journal of Comparative Economics, 31(4), 620–652. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2003.09.003
  • Acemoglu, D.& Robinson, J.A. (2006). Economic origins of dictatorship and democracy. New York, USA: Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511510809.003
  • Acemoglu, D., & Guerrieri, V. (2008). Capital deepening and nonbalanced economic growth. Journal of Political Economy, 116(3), 467–498. Retrieved from https://economics.mit.edu/files/5673
  • Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S. , Robinson, J. A., & Yared, P. (2008). Income and democracy. American Economic Review, 98(3), 808–42. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.98.3.808
  • Aidt, T. S., Dutta, J., & Loukoianova, E. (2006). Democracy comes to Europe: franchise extension and fiscal outcomes 1830–1938. European Economic Review, 50(2), 249-283. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2004.07.004
  • Aidt, T. S., & Gassebner, M. (2010). Do autocratic states trade less?. The World Bank Economic Review, 24(1), 38– 76. https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhp022
  • Alesina, A., & Rodrik , D. (1994). Distributive politics and economic growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 109(2), 465–490. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118470
  • Betts, C., Giri, R., & Verma, R. (2017). Trade, reform, and structural transformation in South Korea. IMF Economic Review, 65(4), 745–791. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41308-017-0031-7
  • Boix, C. (1998). Political parties, growth and equality: Conservative and social democratic economic strategies in the world economy. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139174947
  • Buera, F. J., & Kaboski, J. P. (2012). Scale and the origins of structural change. Journal of Economic Theory, 147(2), 684–712. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2010.11.007
  • Cervellati, M., Naghavi, A., & Toubal, F. (2018). Trade liberalization, democratization, and technology adoption. Journal of Economic Growth, 23(2), 145–173. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-018-9155-5
  • Chan, S. (1997). Democracy and inequality: Tracking welfare spending in Singapore, Taiwan, and South Korea. In M. Midlarski (Ed.), Inequality, democracy, and economic development (pp. 227 –243). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
  • Clark, C. (1940). Conditions of economic progress. London, UK: McMillan.
  • Dabla-Norris, M. E., Thomas, M. A. H., Garcia-Verdu, M. R., & Chen, M. Y. (2013). Benchmarking structural transformation across the world (No. 13-176). International Monetary Fund. http://dx.doi. org/10.5089/9781484359662.001
  • FRH (2018). Freedom in the world: Comparative and historical data. Freedom House, Washington D.C. Retrieved from https://freedomhouse.org/content/freedom-world-data-and-resources
  • Gollin, D., Stephen L. P., & Richard R. (2002). The role of agriculture in development. The American Economic Review, 92(2), pp.160–164. https://doi.org/10.1257/000282802320189177
  • Gollin, D., Stephen L. P., & Richard, R. (2007). The food problem and the evolution of international income levels. Journal of Monetary Economics, 54(4), 1230–1255. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2006.04.002
  • Herrendorf, B., Rogerson, R., & Valentinyi, A. (2014). Growth and structural transformation. In Handbook of economic growth (Vol. 2, pp. 855-941). Amsterdam, Netherlands: Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-444-53540-5.00006-9
  • Ho, C. P. (2015). Population growth and structural transformation. MPRA Paper, No.73860. Retrieved from https:// mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/73860/1/MPRA_paper_73860.pdf
  • Houthakker, H. (1987). Engel’s law. In The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics (Vol.2, pp.143–144). London, UK: McMillan.
  • Kongsamut, P. , Sergio R. & Danyang, X. (2001). Beyond balanced growth. Review of Economic Studies, 68(4), 869–882. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-937X.00193
  • Kuznets, S. (1966). Modern economic growth: Rate, structure, and spread. New Haven, USA: Yale University Press. https://doi.org/10.1086/259424
  • Laitner, J. (2000). Structural change and economic growth. Review of Economic Studies, 67(3), pp.545–561. https:// doi.org/10.1111/1467-937X.00143
  • Lenski, G. E. (1966). Power and privilege (Vol. 96). New York, USA: McGraw-Hill. https://doi.org/10.2307/1953261
  • Leukhina, O. M., & Turnovsky, S. J. (2016). Population size effects in the structural development of England. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 8(3), 195–229. https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20140032
  • Levine, R. (1991). Stock markets, growth, and tax policy. The Journal of Finance, 46(4), 1445–1465. https://doi. org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1991.tb04625.x
  • Melitz, M. J., & Ottaviano, G. I. (2008). Market size, trade, and productivity. The Review of Economic Studies, 75(1), 295–316. Retrieved from https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/melitz/files/melot_restud_final.pdf
  • Meltzer, A. H., & Richard, S. F. (1981). A rational theory of the size of government. The Journal of Political Economy, 89(5), 914–927. https://doi.org/10.1086/261013
  • Milner, H. V., & Kubota, K. (2005). Why the move to free trade? Democracy and trade policy in the developing countries. International Organization, 59(1), 107–143. Retrieved from https://www.princeton.edu/~hmilner/ forthcoming%20papers/LDCdem_IO.pdf
  • Murphy, K. M., Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. W. (1989). Industrialization and the big push. Journal of Political economy, 97(5), 1003-1026. Retrieved from https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/shleifer/files/indust_big_push.pdf
  • Murtin, F., & Wacziarg, R. (2011). The democratic transition. NBER Working Paper, No. 17432. https://doi. org/10.3386/w17432
  • Ngai, L. R., & Pissarides, C. A. (2007). Structural change in a multi-sector model of growth. American Economic Review, 97(1), pp.429–443. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.97.1.429
  • Olson, M. (2000). Power and prosperity: Outgrowing communist and capitalist dictatorships. New York, USA: Basic Books.
  • Polity (2018). Polity IV index: Polity project. Retrieved from http://www.systemicpeace.org/polityproject.html
  • Roodman, D. (2009). How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata, Stata Journal, 9(1), 86–136. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867X0900900106
  • Romer, P. M. (1990). Endogenous technological change. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), 71–102. Retrieved from https://www.jstor.org/stable/2937632
  • Streb, J. (2001). Political uncertainty and economic underdevelopment. Estudios de Economía, 28(1), 89–114. Retrieved from https://ucema.edu.ar/u/jms/articles_and_working_papers/EstudiosdeEconomia_v28n1-e_2001_Streb.pdf
  • Syrquin, M. (1976, August). Sources of industrial growth and change: An alternative measure. In European Meeting of the Econometric Society, Helsinki, Finland.
  • Teignier, M. (2009). The role of trade in structural transformation. Available at SSRN 1984729. Retrieved from https://www.cemfi.es/ftp/pdf/papers/seminar/roletrade_teignier.pdf
  • Uy, T., Yi, K. M., & Zhang, J. (2013). Structural change in an open economy. Journal of Monetary Economics, 60(6), 667–682. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2013.06.002
  • WDI (2018). World development indicators. World Bank, Washington D.C. Retrieved from http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=world-development-indicators

Demokrasiye Geçiş ve Ekonomide Yapısal Dönüşüm Arasindaki İlişki

Yıl 2020, Sayı: 61, 173 - 187, 30.06.2020
https://doi.org/10.26650/JECS2019-0032

Öz

İlgili literatürde ekonominin yapısal dönüşümü üzerine birçok teorik ve uygulamalı çalışma bulunmasına rağmen, politik sistem değişikliğiyle ekonominin yapısal dönüşümünü beraber inceleyen çalışma bulunmamaktadır. Bu çalışma ilgili literatürde bulunan bu boşluğu doldurmayı ve politik rejim değişimleri ve ekonomideki yapısal dönüşüm arasındaki ilişkiyi ekonometrik olarak incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı politik sistem dönüşümünün, otokratik politik sistemden demokratik politik sisteme geçişin, tarım sektörünün gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıladaki payı üzerine etkisini incelemektir. Otokratik politik sistemden, demokratik politik sisteme geçişin ekonomide yapısal dönüşüme neden olacağı hipotezini içsellik sorunlarından dolayı tercih ettiğimiz Fark GMM ekonometrik metodolojisi kullanılarak test ettik. Çalışmada kullanılan gözlemler 43 ülke ve 1970-2016 yılları arası için geçerlidir. Uygulama sonuçları tarım sektörünün gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıladaki payının, ülkeler otokratik politik sistemden demokratik politik sisteme geçiş sağlamalarıyla azalacağını göstermektedir. Uygulama sonuçları ilgili katsayı büyüklüğünün tüm modeller dikkate alındığında -0.590 ve -1.172 arasında değiştiğini göstermektedir. Buna ilaveten, uygulama sonuçları kişi başı gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla, ekilebilir alan büyüklüğü ve ekonominin dış ticarete açıklığındaki değişimlerin tarım sektörünün gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıladaki payı üzerine etkisinin negatif anlamlı olduğunu, bir diğer taraftan finansal kalkınma, doğurganlık ve nüfustaki değişimlerin ise etkisinin pozitif anlamlı olduğunu göstermektedir.

Kaynakça

  • Acemoglu, D., & Robinson, J. A. (2001). A theory of political transitions. American Economic Review, 91(4), 938– 963. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.91.4.938
  • Acemoglu, D. (2003). Why not a political Coase theorem? Social conflict, commitment, and politics. Journal of Comparative Economics, 31(4), 620–652. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2003.09.003
  • Acemoglu, D.& Robinson, J.A. (2006). Economic origins of dictatorship and democracy. New York, USA: Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511510809.003
  • Acemoglu, D., & Guerrieri, V. (2008). Capital deepening and nonbalanced economic growth. Journal of Political Economy, 116(3), 467–498. Retrieved from https://economics.mit.edu/files/5673
  • Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S. , Robinson, J. A., & Yared, P. (2008). Income and democracy. American Economic Review, 98(3), 808–42. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.98.3.808
  • Aidt, T. S., Dutta, J., & Loukoianova, E. (2006). Democracy comes to Europe: franchise extension and fiscal outcomes 1830–1938. European Economic Review, 50(2), 249-283. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2004.07.004
  • Aidt, T. S., & Gassebner, M. (2010). Do autocratic states trade less?. The World Bank Economic Review, 24(1), 38– 76. https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhp022
  • Alesina, A., & Rodrik , D. (1994). Distributive politics and economic growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 109(2), 465–490. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118470
  • Betts, C., Giri, R., & Verma, R. (2017). Trade, reform, and structural transformation in South Korea. IMF Economic Review, 65(4), 745–791. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41308-017-0031-7
  • Boix, C. (1998). Political parties, growth and equality: Conservative and social democratic economic strategies in the world economy. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139174947
  • Buera, F. J., & Kaboski, J. P. (2012). Scale and the origins of structural change. Journal of Economic Theory, 147(2), 684–712. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2010.11.007
  • Cervellati, M., Naghavi, A., & Toubal, F. (2018). Trade liberalization, democratization, and technology adoption. Journal of Economic Growth, 23(2), 145–173. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-018-9155-5
  • Chan, S. (1997). Democracy and inequality: Tracking welfare spending in Singapore, Taiwan, and South Korea. In M. Midlarski (Ed.), Inequality, democracy, and economic development (pp. 227 –243). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
  • Clark, C. (1940). Conditions of economic progress. London, UK: McMillan.
  • Dabla-Norris, M. E., Thomas, M. A. H., Garcia-Verdu, M. R., & Chen, M. Y. (2013). Benchmarking structural transformation across the world (No. 13-176). International Monetary Fund. http://dx.doi. org/10.5089/9781484359662.001
  • FRH (2018). Freedom in the world: Comparative and historical data. Freedom House, Washington D.C. Retrieved from https://freedomhouse.org/content/freedom-world-data-and-resources
  • Gollin, D., Stephen L. P., & Richard R. (2002). The role of agriculture in development. The American Economic Review, 92(2), pp.160–164. https://doi.org/10.1257/000282802320189177
  • Gollin, D., Stephen L. P., & Richard, R. (2007). The food problem and the evolution of international income levels. Journal of Monetary Economics, 54(4), 1230–1255. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2006.04.002
  • Herrendorf, B., Rogerson, R., & Valentinyi, A. (2014). Growth and structural transformation. In Handbook of economic growth (Vol. 2, pp. 855-941). Amsterdam, Netherlands: Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-444-53540-5.00006-9
  • Ho, C. P. (2015). Population growth and structural transformation. MPRA Paper, No.73860. Retrieved from https:// mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/73860/1/MPRA_paper_73860.pdf
  • Houthakker, H. (1987). Engel’s law. In The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics (Vol.2, pp.143–144). London, UK: McMillan.
  • Kongsamut, P. , Sergio R. & Danyang, X. (2001). Beyond balanced growth. Review of Economic Studies, 68(4), 869–882. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-937X.00193
  • Kuznets, S. (1966). Modern economic growth: Rate, structure, and spread. New Haven, USA: Yale University Press. https://doi.org/10.1086/259424
  • Laitner, J. (2000). Structural change and economic growth. Review of Economic Studies, 67(3), pp.545–561. https:// doi.org/10.1111/1467-937X.00143
  • Lenski, G. E. (1966). Power and privilege (Vol. 96). New York, USA: McGraw-Hill. https://doi.org/10.2307/1953261
  • Leukhina, O. M., & Turnovsky, S. J. (2016). Population size effects in the structural development of England. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 8(3), 195–229. https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20140032
  • Levine, R. (1991). Stock markets, growth, and tax policy. The Journal of Finance, 46(4), 1445–1465. https://doi. org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1991.tb04625.x
  • Melitz, M. J., & Ottaviano, G. I. (2008). Market size, trade, and productivity. The Review of Economic Studies, 75(1), 295–316. Retrieved from https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/melitz/files/melot_restud_final.pdf
  • Meltzer, A. H., & Richard, S. F. (1981). A rational theory of the size of government. The Journal of Political Economy, 89(5), 914–927. https://doi.org/10.1086/261013
  • Milner, H. V., & Kubota, K. (2005). Why the move to free trade? Democracy and trade policy in the developing countries. International Organization, 59(1), 107–143. Retrieved from https://www.princeton.edu/~hmilner/ forthcoming%20papers/LDCdem_IO.pdf
  • Murphy, K. M., Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. W. (1989). Industrialization and the big push. Journal of Political economy, 97(5), 1003-1026. Retrieved from https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/shleifer/files/indust_big_push.pdf
  • Murtin, F., & Wacziarg, R. (2011). The democratic transition. NBER Working Paper, No. 17432. https://doi. org/10.3386/w17432
  • Ngai, L. R., & Pissarides, C. A. (2007). Structural change in a multi-sector model of growth. American Economic Review, 97(1), pp.429–443. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.97.1.429
  • Olson, M. (2000). Power and prosperity: Outgrowing communist and capitalist dictatorships. New York, USA: Basic Books.
  • Polity (2018). Polity IV index: Polity project. Retrieved from http://www.systemicpeace.org/polityproject.html
  • Roodman, D. (2009). How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata, Stata Journal, 9(1), 86–136. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867X0900900106
  • Romer, P. M. (1990). Endogenous technological change. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), 71–102. Retrieved from https://www.jstor.org/stable/2937632
  • Streb, J. (2001). Political uncertainty and economic underdevelopment. Estudios de Economía, 28(1), 89–114. Retrieved from https://ucema.edu.ar/u/jms/articles_and_working_papers/EstudiosdeEconomia_v28n1-e_2001_Streb.pdf
  • Syrquin, M. (1976, August). Sources of industrial growth and change: An alternative measure. In European Meeting of the Econometric Society, Helsinki, Finland.
  • Teignier, M. (2009). The role of trade in structural transformation. Available at SSRN 1984729. Retrieved from https://www.cemfi.es/ftp/pdf/papers/seminar/roletrade_teignier.pdf
  • Uy, T., Yi, K. M., & Zhang, J. (2013). Structural change in an open economy. Journal of Monetary Economics, 60(6), 667–682. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2013.06.002
  • WDI (2018). World development indicators. World Bank, Washington D.C. Retrieved from http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=world-development-indicators
Toplam 42 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Sosyoloji
Bölüm Araştırma Makaleleri
Yazarlar

Deniz Güvercin Bu kişi benim 0000-0001-6158-3877

Adem Gök 0000-0002-3786-2507

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Haziran 2020
Gönderilme Tarihi 28 Mart 2019
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2020 Sayı: 61

Kaynak Göster

APA Güvercin, D., & Gök, A. (2020). The Nexus Between the Democratic Transition and the Structural Transformation. Journal of Economy Culture and Society(61), 173-187. https://doi.org/10.26650/JECS2019-0032
AMA Güvercin D, Gök A. The Nexus Between the Democratic Transition and the Structural Transformation. Journal of Economy Culture and Society. Haziran 2020;(61):173-187. doi:10.26650/JECS2019-0032
Chicago Güvercin, Deniz, ve Adem Gök. “The Nexus Between the Democratic Transition and the Structural Transformation”. Journal of Economy Culture and Society, sy. 61 (Haziran 2020): 173-87. https://doi.org/10.26650/JECS2019-0032.
EndNote Güvercin D, Gök A (01 Haziran 2020) The Nexus Between the Democratic Transition and the Structural Transformation. Journal of Economy Culture and Society 61 173–187.
IEEE D. Güvercin ve A. Gök, “The Nexus Between the Democratic Transition and the Structural Transformation”, Journal of Economy Culture and Society, sy. 61, ss. 173–187, Haziran 2020, doi: 10.26650/JECS2019-0032.
ISNAD Güvercin, Deniz - Gök, Adem. “The Nexus Between the Democratic Transition and the Structural Transformation”. Journal of Economy Culture and Society 61 (Haziran 2020), 173-187. https://doi.org/10.26650/JECS2019-0032.
JAMA Güvercin D, Gök A. The Nexus Between the Democratic Transition and the Structural Transformation. Journal of Economy Culture and Society. 2020;:173–187.
MLA Güvercin, Deniz ve Adem Gök. “The Nexus Between the Democratic Transition and the Structural Transformation”. Journal of Economy Culture and Society, sy. 61, 2020, ss. 173-87, doi:10.26650/JECS2019-0032.
Vancouver Güvercin D, Gök A. The Nexus Between the Democratic Transition and the Structural Transformation. Journal of Economy Culture and Society. 2020(61):173-87.