The Impact of Technological Growth and Education Spending on Unemployment: Evidence From a Panel ARDL-PMG Approach

Öz

Purpose: The aim of this study is to examine the short and long-term effects of technological development variables (R&D expenditures, high technology exports and patent applications) and public education expenditures on unemployment using the ARDL-PMG approach. Methodology: Panel Ardl model, which is known as an error correction model and allows the diagnosis of short-and long-term relationships, is used. Do technological advances cause the unemployment rate to rise? And Is there a link between technological advances, expenditure on education and employment? In this study, which tries to answer these two questions, ARDL and DH panel causality tests were applied for the European Union. Findings: According to the Panel ARLD-PMG analysis findings, while R&D spending increases unemployment in the short term, a 1% increase in R&D spending decreases unemployment by 1.42% over the long term. Similarly, a 1% increase in education expenditure decreases unemployment by 0.165% over the long term. Also, R&D spending and high technology exports have bidirectional causation, and bi-directional causality has been identified between unemployment and education expenditures. Practical Implications: While the widespread use of Industry 4.0 provides significant job savings, it creates pressure on employment. Policymakers should set more careful policies to support employment. The possibility of technological unemployment spreading can cause individual and social instabilities and problems. Originality: The contribution of the study to the literature allows us to see the effectiveness of public education expenditures while determining the effect of technological developments on unemployment.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Technological Unemployment
• Industry 4.0
• Panel ARDL-Pmg
• Panel Causality Test.

Teknolojik Büyüme ve Eğitim Harcamalarının İşsizlik Üzerine Etkisi: Panel ARDL-PMG Yaklaşımından Kanıtlar

Öz

Amaç: Bu çalışmanın amacı teknolojik gelişme ölçütleri (Ar-Ge harcamaları, yüksek teknoloji ihracatı ve patent başvuruları) ve kamu eğitim harcamalarının işsizlik üzerine kısa ve uzun vadeli etkilerini ARDL-PMG yaklaşımı kullanarak incelemektir. Metodoloji: Hata düzeltme modeli olarak bilinen, kısa ve uzun dönemli nedensellik ilişkilerinin teşhisine olanak sağlayan Panel Ardl modeli kullanılmaktadır. Teknolojik gelişmeler işsizlik oranının artmasına neden oluyor mu? Teknolojik ilerlemeler, eğitim harcamaları ve istihdam arasında bir bağlantı var mı? Bu iki soruya cevap bulmaya çalışan bu çalışmada, Avrupa Birliği için ARDL ve DH panel nedensellik testleri uygulanmıştır. Bulgular: Panel ARLD-PMG analiz bulgularına göre Ar-Ge harcamaları kısa dönemde işsizliği artırırken, uzun dönemde Ar-Ge harcamalarındaki %1’lik bir artış işsizliği %1,42 oranında azaltmaktadır. Benzer şekilde, eğitim harcamalarındaki %1’lik bir artış, işsizliği uzun vadede %0,165 oranında azaltmaktadır. Ayrıca, Ar-Ge harcamaları ve yüksek teknoloji ihracatı çift yönlü nedenselliğe sahiptir ve işsizlik ile eğitim harcamaları arasında çift yönlü nedensellik tespit edilmiştir. Sonuç ve Öneriler: Endüstri 4.0’ın yaygınlaşması önemli iş tasarrufları sağlarken, istihdam üzerinde baskı yaratıyor. Politika yapıcılar, istihdamı desteklemek için daha dikkatli politikalar belirlemelidir. Teknolojik işsizliğin yayılma olasılığı, bireysel ve sosyal istikrarsızlıklara ve sorunlara neden olabilir. Özgün Değer: Çalışmanın literatüre katkısı, teknolojik gelişmelerin işsizlik üzerindeki etkisini belirlerken kamu eğitim harcamalarının etkinliğini görmemizi sağlamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Teknolojik İşsizlik
• Endüstri 4.0
• Panel ARDL-Pmg
• Panel Nedensellik Testi.

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