İki Aşamalı Risk Değerlendirme Yöntemi ile Havacılık Sektöründe Uygulama

Öz

Globalleşen dünyada havacılık sektörü en önemli ulaştırma alanlarından biri olup, iyileştirilip geliştirilmesi için pek çok çalışma yapılmaktadır. Havaalanları yolcu trafiğinin ve yük taşımacılığının çok sıkı takip edildiği, ufak bir aksaklığın sektöre maliyetinin ciddi seviyede olacağı stratejik bölgelerdir. Bu çalışmada havaalanlarında meydana gelen hata ve risk türleri belirlenerek önleyici bakım planlama faaliyetlerinin geliştirilmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Bu açıdan hata türü etkileri analizi (HTEA) yaklaşımı kullanarak havalimanı yetkilileri ile görüşülerek alınan bilgiler doğrultusunda en önemli hata türleri risk öncelik sayısı (RÖS) ölçeği ile belirlenmiştir. Buna göre ilgili hata türlerinin önlenmesi için önleyici faaliyetler sıralanmıştır. Ayrıca HTEA yönteminin eksikliğini gidermek için objektif bir yöntem olan Entropi yaklaşımına dayanan karar verme yöntemi ile ağırlıklandırarak hata türleri sınıflandırılmıştır. Buna göre hava alanlarında ortaya çıkan tehlike ve risk durumları iki aşamalı bir analitik yaklaşımla çok boyutlu bir açıdan değerlendirilmektedir. Elde edilen sonuçların, hava alanı yöneticilerinin öncelikle yapması gereken iyileştirme ve yatırım kararları hakkında yol gösterici olması beklenmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Hata türü etkileri analizi (HTEA)
• Entropi
• Havacılık sektörü
• Risk değerlendirme

A Two-Stage Risk Assessment Method in Aviation Sector

Öz

In the globalizing world, the aviation sector is one of the most important transportation areas, and many researches/projects are being carried out to improve and develop it. Airports are strategic regions where passenger traffic and freight transport are closely monitored, and a small disruption will lead to a serious cost to the overall industry. In this study, we aim to develop preventive maintenance planning activities by determining different error types and risks that occur at airports. In this respect, using the failure mode effect analysis (FMEA) approach, the most important failure types were determined with the risk priority number (RPN) scale in line with the information obtained by interviewing the airport authorities. Accordingly, preventive actions are listed to prevent the related fault types. In addition, failure modes were classified by weighting with the decision-making method based on the Entropi approach, which is an objective method, in order to eliminate the deficiency of the FMEA method. Accordingly, the dangerous and risk situations that arise at airports are evaluated from a multidimensional perspective with a two-stage analytical approach. It is expected that the obtained results will be a guide for the improvement and investment decisions that the airport managers should make first.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Failure mode effect analysis (FMEA)
• Entropy
• Aviation sector
• Risk evaluation

Kaynakça

1. [1] A. A. Ekinci, “Ülke riski analizi: Türkiye ve BRIC ülkeleri üzerine ampirik bir uygulama,” Yükseklisans Tezi, 2018, Accessed: Aug. 14, 2023. [Online]. Available: http://acikerisim.nevsehir.edu.tr/xmlui/handle/20.500.11787/802
2. [2] C. Aydınlı, “Sağlık kuruluşlarında risk değerlendirme ve bir üniversite hastanesinde risk azaltma çalışması,” 2010, Accessed: Aug. 14, 2023. [Online]. Available: http://acikerisim.uludag.edu.tr/jspui/handle/11452/2098
3. [3] Claudia R. Carvalho, E. Oliveira, J. C. Pereira, and N. D. Pizzolato, “Combined application of condition-based maintenance and reliability centred maintenance using PFMEA and lean concepts - a case study,” Int. J. Inf. Decis. Sci., vol. 15, no. 3, pp. 302–325, 2023, doi: 10.1504/IJIDS.2023.132825.
4. [4] A. ve Toraman and B. Gökkaya, “Hata Türleri Ve Etkileri Analizi (Fmea) Ve Sağlık Alanında Uygulamaları,” SDÜ Sağlık Yönetimi Derg., vol. 5, no. 1, pp. 26–39, Jul. 2023, Accessed: Aug. 14, 2023. [Online]. Available: https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/sdusyd/issue/79238/1292149
5. [5] D. Demirkıran, “Yalın üretim teknikleri ve Porsche firmasında uygulanması.” İstanbul Kültür Üniversitesi / Lisansüstü Eğitim Enstitüsü / İşletme Ana Bilim Dalı, 2019. Accessed: Aug. 14, 2023. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11413/6385
6. [6] C. Wan, X. Yan, D. Zhang, Z. Qu, and Z. Yang, “An advanced fuzzy Bayesian-based FMEA approach for assessing maritime supply chain risks,” Transp. Res. Part E Logist. Transp. Rev., vol. 125, pp. 222–240, May 2019, doi: 10.1016/J.TRE.2019.03.011.
7. [7] S. Fan, E. Blanco-Davis, Z. Yang, J. Zhang, and X. Yan, “Incorporation of human factors into maritime accident analysis using a data-driven Bayesian network,” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf., vol. 203, p. 107070, Nov. 2020, doi: 10.1016/J.RESS.2020.107070.
8. [8] B. Salah, M. Alnahhal, and M. Ali, “Risk prioritization using a modified FMEA analysis in industry 4.0,” J. Eng. Res., Jul. 2023, doi: 10.1016/J.JER.2023.07.001.

9. [9] Soltanali, H., & Ramezani, S. (2023). Smart Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) for Safety–Critical Systems in the Context of Industry 4.0. In Advances in Reliability, Failure and Risk Analysis (pp. 151-176). Singapore: Springer Nature Singapore.
10. [10] S. Shi, H. Fei, and X. Xu, “Application of a FMEA method combining interval 2-tuple linguistic variables and grey relational analysis in preoperative medical service process,” IFAC-PapersOnLine, vol. 52, no. 13, pp. 1242–1247, Jan. 2019, doi: 10.1016/J.IFACOL.2019.11.368.
11. [11] C. L. Chang, C. C. Wei, and Y. H. Lee, “Failure mode and effects analysis using fuzzy method and grey theory,” Kybernetes, vol. 28, no. 8–9, pp. 1072–1080, 1999, doi: 10.1108/03684929910300295/FULL/PDF.
12. [12] Putcha, C. S., Kalia, P., Pizzano, F., Hoskins, G., Newton, C., & Kamdar, K. J. (2008). A case study on FMEA applications to system reliability studies. International Journal of Reliability, Quality and Safety Engineering, 15(02), 159-166.
13. [13] Filz, M. A., Langner, J. E. B., Herrmann, C., & Thiede, S. (2021). Data-driven failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) to enhance maintenance planning. Computers in Industry, 129, 103451. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.COMPIND.2021.103451
14. [14] Salah, B., Janeh, O., Bruckmann, T., & Noche, B. (2015). Improving the Performance of a New Storage and Retrieval Machine Based on a Parallel Manipulator Using FMEA Analysis. IFAC-PapersOnLine, 48(3), 1658–1663. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.IFACOL.2015.06.324
15. [15] Ahn, J., Noh, Y., Park, S. H., Choi, B. I., & Chang, D. (2017). Fuzzy-based failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) of a hybrid molten carbonate fuel cell (MCFC) and gas turbine system for marine propulsion. Journal of Power Sources, 364, 226-233.
16. [16] Liu, H. C. (2019). Improved FMEA methods for proactive healthcare risk analysis (pp. 73-96). Singapore: Springer.
17. [17] Mou, A. T., Uddin, M. T., & Rahman, M. H. (2023). Empirical assessment of species vulnerability for biodiversity conservation: A case study on Chalan beel of Bangladesh. Heliyon, 9(4).
18. [18] Park, C., Kontovas, C., Yang, Z., & Chang, C. H. (2023). A BN driven FMEA approach to assess maritime cybersecurity risks. Ocean & Coastal Management, 235, 106480.
19. [19] Price, C., & Taylor, N. (1997, July). Multiple fault diagnosis from FMEA. In Proceedings of the National Conference on Artificial Intelligence (pp. 1052-1057). John Wıley & Sons Ltd.
20. [20] Vinodh, S., & Santhosh, D. (2012). Application of FMEA to an automotive leaf spring manufacturing organization. The TQM Journal, 24(3), 260-274.
21. [21] Salah, B., Alkahtani, M., & Ziout, A. (2017). Using FMEA analysis for assessing air conditioners remanufacturing processes (pp. 2431–2437). IEOM Society. https://research.uaeu.ac.ae/en/publications/using-fmea-analysis-for-assessing-air-conditioners-remanufacturin
22. [22] Fabis-Domagala, J., Domagala, M., & Momeni, H. (2021). A Concept of Risk Prioritization in FMEA Analysis for Fluid Power Systems. Energies 2021, Vol. 14, Page 6482, 14(20), 6482. https://doi.org/10.3390/EN14206482
23. [23] Shafiee, M., & Dinmohammadi, F. (2014). An FMEA-Based Risk Assessment Approach for Wind Turbine Systems: A Comparative Study of Onshore and Offshore. Energies 2014, Vol. 7, Pages 619-642, 7(2), 619–642. https://doi.org/10.3390/EN7020619
24. [24] Nguyen, T. L., Shu, M. H., & Hsu, B. M. (2016). Extended FMEA for Sustainable Manufacturing: An Empirical Study in the Non-Woven Fabrics Industry. Sustainability 2016, Vol. 8, Page 939, 8(9), 939. https://doi.org/10.3390/SU8090939
25. [25] Göktaş, P. & Özler, C. ,”Havalimanı Karbon Akreditasyonu Süreci Uygulamalarının İyileştirilmesinde Hata Türü ve Etkileri Analizinin Kullanılması “, Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi ,2017.
26. [26] S.L. Omairey S. Sampethai ,L. Hans ,C. Worall ,S. Lewis, D.Negro ,T. Settar ,E. Ferrera ,E. Blanco, J.Wighton ,L. Muijs ,S. L. Veldman ,M. Doldersum ,R. Tonnaer ,N. Jayasree, M. Kazılas, Development Of İnnovative Automated Solutions For The Assembly Of Multifunctional Thermoplastic Composite Fuselage, The International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology, 2021.
27. [27] Elahi, B. (2022). Risk Analysis Techniques. Safety Risk Management for Medical Devices, 89–153. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-323-85755-0.00014-X
28. [28] Ceylan, B. O., Karatuğ, Ç., Akyuz, E., Arslanoğlu, Y., & Boustras, G. (2023). A system theory (STAMP) based quantitative accident analysis model for complex engineering systems. Safety Science, 166, 106232. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.SSCI.2023.106232
29. [29] Salah, B., Alnahhal, M., & Ali, M. (2023). Risk prioritization using a modified FMEA analysis in industry 4.0. Journal of Engineering Research. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JER.2023.07.001
30. [30] Kusumasari, W., Rabung, Y. Y., Ilmi, F. M., & Ellizar, E. (2022). Assessing the safety effect through Google Maps usage: FMEA approach (Case study: Indonesia). Case Studies on Transport Policy, 10(3), 1917–1929. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.CSTP.2022.08.006
31. [31] Mendes, N., Geraldo Vidal Vieira, J., & Patrícia Mano, A. (2022). Risk management in aviation maintenance: A systematic literature review. Safety Science, 153, 105810. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.SSCI.2022.105810
32. [32] Chang, K. H. (2015). A novel general risk assessment method using the soft TOPSIS approach. Http://Dx.Doi.Org/10.1080/21681015.2015.1070375, 32(6), 408–421. https://doi.org/10.1080/21681015.2015.1070375
33. [33] Liu, S. F., Cheng, J. H., Lee, Y. L., & Gau, F. R. (2015). A case study on FMEA-based quality improvement of packaging designs in the TFT-LCD industry. Http://Dx.Doi.Org/10.1080/14783363.2015.1004308, 27(3–4), 413–431. [34] Hajiagha, S. H. R., Hashemi, S. S., Mohammadi, Y., & Zavadskas, E. K. (2016). Fuzzy belief structure based VIKOR method: an application for ranking delay causes of Tehran metro system by FMEA criteria. Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, 31(1), 108–118. https:
34. [35] Ahmadi, M., Behzadian, K., Ardeshir, A., & Kapelan, Z. (2017). Comprehensive risk management using fuzzy FMEA and MCDA techniques in highway construction projects. Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, 23(2), 300–310. https://doi.org/10.3846/13923730.2015.1068847
35. [36] Ben Romdhane, T., Badreddine, A., & Sansa, M. (2016). A new model to implement Six Sigma in small- and medium-sized enterprises. Http://Dx.Doi.Org/10.1080/00207543.2016.1249430, 55(15), 4319–4340.
36. [37] Fattahi, R., & Khalilzadeh, M. (2018). Risk evaluation using a novel hybrid method based on FMEA, extended MULTIMOORA, and AHP methods under fuzzy environment. Safety Science, 102, 290–300. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.SSCI.2017.10.018
37. [38] Nie, R. xin, Tian, Z. peng, Wang, X. kang, Wang, J. qiang, & Wang, T. li. (2018). Risk evaluation by FMEA of supercritical water gasification system using multi-granular linguistic distribution assessment. Knowledge-Based Systems, 162, 185–201. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.KNOSYS.2018.05.030
38. [39] Cano-Olivos, P., Hernández-Zitlalpopoca, R., Sánchez-Partida, D., Caballero-Morales, S. O., & Martínez-Flores, J. L. (2019). Risk analysis of the supply chain of a tools manufacturer in Puebla, Mexico. Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management, 27(4), 406–413. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-5973.12258
39. [40] T. Uslu, “Savunma ve Havacılık Sanayisi İçin Çok Kriterli Karar verme Temeli Yeni Bir Prosess Hata Tipi Hata Türü ve Etkileri Analizi Yaklaşımının Geliştirilmesi ” Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Ankara Başkent Üniversitesi /Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü/Endüstri Mühendisliği Ana Bilim Dalı 2020.
40. [41] Liu, Y., Kong, Z., & Zhang, Q. (2018). Failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) for the security of the supply chain system of the gas station in China. Ecotoxicology and Environmental Safety, 164, 325–330. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ECOENV.2018.08.028
41. [42] Chiu, M. C., Chu, C. Y., & Chen, C. C. (2017). An integrated product service system modelling methodology with a case study of clothing industry. Https://Doi.Org/10.1080/00207543.2017.1374570, 56(6), 2388–2409. [43] Maniram Kumar, A., Rajakarunakaran, S., Pitchipoo, P., & Vimalesan, R. (2018). Fuzzy based risk prioritisation in an auto LPG dispensing station. Safety Science, 101, 231–247. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.SSCI.2017.09.011
42. [44] Arabsheybani, A., Paydar, M. M., & Safaei, A. S. (2018). An integrated fuzzy MOORA method and FMEA technique for sustainable supplier selection considering quantity discounts and supplier’s risk. Journal of Cleaner Production, 190, 577–591. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JCLEPRO.2018.04.167
43. [45] Chen, Y., Ran, Y., Wang, Z., Li, X., Yang, X., & Zhang, G. (2020). An extended MULTIMOORA method based on OWGA operator and Choquet integral for risk prioritization identification of failure modes. Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence, 91, 103605. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ENGAPPAI.2020.103605
44. [46] Liu, H. C., Wang, L. E., You, X. Y., & Wu, S. M. (2017). Failure mode and effect analysis with extended grey relational analysis method in cloud setting. Https://Doi.Org/10.1080/14783363.2017.1337506, 30(7–8), 745–767. [47] Mentes, A. (2023). Risk analysis of on-field and on-board activities and resilience investigation of Izmir Aliaga Ship Recycling Facilities. Ocean Engineering, 287, 115891. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.OCEANENG.2023.115891
45. [48] Goksu, S., & Arslan, O. (2023). A quantitative dynamic risk assessment for ship operation using the fuzzy FMEA: The case of ship berthing/unberthing operation. Ocean Engineering, 287, 115548. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.OCEANENG.2023.115548
46. [49] Park, C., Kontovas, C., Yang, Z., & Chang, C. H. (2023). A BN driven FMEA approach to assess maritime cybersecurity risks. Ocean & Coastal Management, 235, 106480. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.OCECOAMAN.2023.106480
47. [50] Liu, Z., Zhao, Y., & Liu, P. (2023). An integrated FMEA framework considering expert reliability for classification and its application in aircraft power supply system. Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence, 123, 106319. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ENGAPPAI.2023.106319
48. [51] You, J., Lou, S., Mao, R., & Xu, T. (2022). An improved FMEA quality risk assessment framework for enterprise data assets. Journal of Digital Economy, 1(3), 141–152. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JDEC.2022.12.001
49. [52] Üçkardeş, İ., & Ünal, D. (2012). Risk analizi ve havacılık sektöründe kaza risklerinin incelenmesi. Ç.Ü Fen ve Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, 27(2), 174–181.
50. [53] Ravi Sankar, N. and Prabhu, B.S. (2001), "Modified approach for prioritization of failures in a system failure mode and effects analysis", International Journal of Quality & Reliability Management, Vol. 18 No. 3, pp. 324-336. https://doi.org/10.1108/02656710110383737
51. [54] Yılmaz, A., Hata Türü ve Etki Analizi, İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi F.B.E. Yüksek Lisans Tezi, İstanbul, 1997.
52. [55] Düzgüner, E. (2002). Ürün geliştirme sürecinde önleyici kalite güvence: FMAE Metodu ve vu metodun bir sanayi işletmesindeki uygulaması (Master's thesis, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü).
53. [56] Durhan, D. (2006). Hata türü ve etkileri analizi (FMEA) ve bir uygulama. Gazi Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Ankara.
54. [57] Mirghafouri, S. H., Asadian Ardakani, F., & Azizi, F. (2014). Developing a method for risk analysis in tile and ceramic industry using failure mode and effects analysis by data envelopment analysis. Iranian Journal of Management Studies, 7(2), 343-363.
55. [58] Ford Motor Company Limited, (1995), Quality Criteria Process Guide, Ford Motor Company Limited, Quality Office, Vehicle Centre 1, Dunton Research & Engineering Centre, Laindon, Revision 1.00, (Restricted) 31st July
56. [59] Stamatis, D. H. (2003). Failure mode and effect analysis. Quality Press.
57. [60] C. E. Shannon, A mathematical theory of communication, Bell system technical journal, vol. 27, pp. 379-423, 1948
58. [61] Karami, A. ve Johansson, R. (2014). Utilization of multi attribute decision making techniques to integrate automatic and manual ranking of options. Journal of Information Science and Engineering, 30, 519-534
59. [62]Dale, B. G., & Shaw, P. (1990). Failure mode and effects analysis in the UK motor industry: A state‐of‐the‐art study. Quality and Reliability Engineering International, 6(3), 179-188.