MONETARY POLICY DYNAMICS AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN BANGLADESH: AN ARIMA MODEL APPROACH

Öz

This study delves into the impact of monetary policy on the economic performance of Bangladesh, utilizing data derived from audited annual reports of the Bangladesh Bank covering the years 2014 to 2022. The central focus of the analysis revolves around Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as the dependent variable, with money supply growth, real interest rate, exchange rate, inflation rate, and repo rate considered as independent variables. Employing two regression models, namely Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), the research aims to explore the relationships among these variables. In the OLS regression model, significant associations are identified between GDP and real interest rates, inflation rate, and the repo rate. However, no statistically significant relationships are observed between GDP and money supply growth or the exchange rate. On the contrary, the ARIMA regression model indicates statistical significance for all variables, except the exchange rate, concerning their impact on GDP. These findings suggest that monetary policy plays a substantial role in shaping the economic growth of Bangladesh, with real interest rates, inflation rates, and repo rates exerting particular influence. The lack of a significant relationship between the exchange rate and GDP in the ARIMA model implies that other factors, potentially external to the country, may have a more dominant influence on exchange rate dynamics during the study period. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of the complex interplay between monetary policy and economic performance in Bangladesh, offering valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Effectiveness
• Monetary Policy
• GDP
• Bangladesh

BANGLADEŞ'TE PARA POLİTİKASI DİNAMİKLERİ VE EKONOMİK PERFORMANS: BİR ARIMA MODELİ YAKLAŞIMI

Öz

Bu çalışma Bangladeş'te para politikasının ekonomik performans üzerindeki etkisini, Bangladeş Bankası’nın 2014'ten 2022'ye kadar denetlenmiş yıllık raporlarındaki verileri kullanarak, değerlendirmektedir. Çalışmada Gayrisafi Yurt İçi Hasıla (GSYH) bağımlı değişken; para arzı büyümesi, reel faiz oranı, döviz kuru, enflasyon oranı ve repo oranı bağımsız değişken olarak seçilmiştir. Bağımlı ve bağımsız değişkenler arasındaki ilişkinin belirlenmesinde Sıradan En Küçük Kareler (OLS) ve Otoregresif Entegre Hareketli Ortalama Modelleri (ARIMA) kullanılmıştır. OLS regresyon modelinde GSYH ile reel faiz oranları, enflasyon oranı ve repo oranı arasında anlamlı bir ilişki bulunmuştur. Öte yandan GSYH ile para arzı büyümesi ve döviz kuru arasında anlamlı bir ilişki bulunmamaktadır. ARIMA regresyon modelinde döviz kuru dışında tüm değişkenler GSYH üzerinde etkileri bakımından anlamlıdırlar. Bu bulgular, para politikasının Bangladeş’in ekonomik büyümesinde önemli bir rol oynadığını ortaya koyarken, reel faiz oranları, enflasyon oranı ve repo oranlarının da büyümedeki etkinliğinin önem arz ettiğini göstermektedir. ARIMA modelinde döviz kuru ile GSYH arasında anlamlı bir ilişkinin bulunmaması, çalışma dönemi boyunca potansiyel olarak ülke dışından olan diğer faktörlerin döviz kuru dinamikleri üzerinde daha baskın bir etkiye sahip olabileceğine işaret etmektedir. Bu araştırma, Bangladeş'te para politikası ile ekonomik performans arasındaki karmaşık etkileşimin daha derinlemesine anlaşılmasına katkıda bulunarak politika yapıcılara ve paydaşlara değerli bilgiler sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Etkinlik
• Para Politikası
• GSYH
• Bangladeş

Kaynakça

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