INVESTIGATING THE EFFECTS OF THE EXPECTED ISTANBUL EARTHQUAKE ON THE ECONOMY OF ISTANBUL: A SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL

Öz

Both its population and its leading position in almost every sector make Istanbul the most important city in Turkey in terms of economy and demographics. The loss of life and property damage caused by a severe earthquake that will affect the city and its short and long-term economic impacts occupy the public agenda almost every day. Although the importance of the subject is so clear, there is no study based on scientific methods about the economic effects of a possible earthquake except expert opinions. In this study, the effects of a possible Istanbul earthquake on the economy of Istanbul are examined with a simulation model based on the system dynamics approach. The proposed model basically reflects the complex and multidimensional causalities between the variables used in the calculation of gross domestic product (GDP) by production and expenditure methods. These variables basically refer to topics such as production- consumption balance, domestic demand, imports, exports, sector sizes, recovery time after the earthquake. Scenario analysis are performed on the base model, and the economic effects of earthquakes that may occur in different intensities are analyzed. According to the results obtained, although there are sectors where recovery will take a long time after the earthquake, it is expected that it will not take long for the production-consumption balance to be restored in sectors with high demand. To the best of our knowledge this study is the first attempt to integrate system dynamics with disaster economics.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Earthquake
• System Dynamics
• Stock-Flow Model
• Causal Loop Model
• Disaster Economics

BEKLENEN İSTANBUL DEPREMİNİN İSTANBUL EKONOMİSİ ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİNİN İNCELENMESİ: BİR SİSTEM DİNAMİĞİ MODELİ

Öz

Gerek barındırdığı nüfus gerekse hemen hemen her sektörde lider konumunda olması İstanbul’u ekonomik ve demografik açıdan Türkiye’nin en önemli ili kılmaktadır. Kenti etkileyecek şiddetli bir depremin yol açacağı can kaybı ve maddi hasar ile kısa ve uzun vadeli ekonomik etkiler kamuoyu gündemini neredeyse her gün meşgul etmektedir. Konunun önemi bu derece açık olmakla birlikte olası bir depremin ekonomik etkileri hakkında uzman görüşü dışında bilimsel yöntemlere dayalı bir çalışma mevcut değildir. Bu çalışmada olası İstanbul depreminin İstanbul ekonomisi üzerindeki etkileri sistem dinamiği yaklaşımına dayalı bir benzetim modeli ile incelenmektedir. Önerilen model temel olarak üretim ve harcama yöntemiyle gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla (GSYH) hesaplanmasında kullanılan değişkenlerin aralarındaki karmaşık ve çok yönlü nedensellik ilişkilerini yansıtmaktadır. Bu değişkenler temel olarak üretim tüketim dengesi, yurtiçi talep, ithalat, ihracat, sektör büyüklükleri, deprem sonrası toparlanma süresi gibi başlıkları ifade etmektedir. Oluşturulan temel model üzerine senaryo analizleri gerçekleştirilmiş, farklı şiddetlerde meydana gelebilecek depremlerin ekonomik etkileri analiz edilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre depremin ardından toparlanmanın uzun süreceği sektörler olmakla birlikte yoğun talebin bulunduğu sektörlerde üretim-tüketim dengesinin yeniden sağlanmasının çok uzun sürmemesi beklenmektedir. Bilindiği kadarıyla bu çalışma literatürde sistem dinamiği yaklaşımıyla afet ekonomisi konusunu birleştiren ilk çalışmadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Deprem
• Sistem Dinamiği
• Stok Akış Modeli
• Kavramsal Döngü Modeli
• Afet Ekonomisi.

Kaynakça

1. Aktürk, P., Albeni, Y., 2002. Doğal Afetlerin Ekonomik Performans Üzerine Etkisi: 1999 Yılında Türkiye'de Meydana Gelen Depremler ve Etkileri . Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi , 7 (1), 1-18.
2. Ager, P., Eriksson, K., Hansen, C.W., Lønstrup, L., 2020. How the 1906 San Francisco earthquake shaped economic activity in the American West. Explorations in Economic History, 77, 101342.
3. Bardakçı, H., Demirtaş, F., 2023. Doğal Afetlerin Dış Ticarete Etkisi: 2023 Türkiye Depremlerive Sonuçlarının Değerlendirilmesi. Avrasya Dosyası Dergisi, 14 (1), 183-204.
4. Barlas, Y., 1996. Formal aspects of model validity and validation in SD. SD Review, 12 (3), 183-210.
5. Besstremyannaya, G., 2017. Heterogeneous effect of the global financial crisis and the Great East Japan Earthquake on costs of Japanese banks. Journal of Empirical Finance, 42, 66-89.
6. Best, R., Burke, P.J., 2019. Macroeconomic impacts of the 2010 earthquake in Haiti. Empirical Economics, 56 (5), 1647-1681.
7. Bibbee, A., Gonenc, R., Jacobs, S., Konvitz, J., Price, R., 2000. Economic Effects of the 1999 Turkish Earthquakes: An Interim Report, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 247.
8. Brozović, N., Sunding, D.L., Zilberman, D., 2007. Estimating business and residential water supply interruption losses from catastrophic events. Water Resources Research, 43 (8).

9. Carrera, L., Standardi, G., Bosello, F., Mysiak, J., 2015. Assessing direct and indirect economic impacts of a flood event through the integration of spatial and computable general equilibrium modelling. Environmental Modelling & Software, 63, 109-122.
10. Chatterjee, R., Okazaki, K., 2018. Household livelihood recovery after 2015 Nepal earthquake in informal economy: case study of shop owners in Bungamati. Procedia Engineering, 212, 543-550.
11. Chen, Y., Song, J., Zhong, S., Liu, Z., Gao, W., 2022. Effect of destructive earthquake on the population-economy-space urbanization at county level-a case study on Dujiangyan county, China. Sustainable Cities and Society, 76, 103345,
12. Coffman, M., Noy, I., 2012. Hurricane Iniki: measuring the long-term economic impact of a natural disaster using synthetic control. Environment and Development Economics, 17 (2), 187-205.
13. Das, S., Sheth, A.N., Bansal, P., Chuah, J., Wasson, R., 2022. A statistical comparison of flood-related economic damage in Indian states with reflections on policy implications. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 72, 102835,
14. Davlasheridze, M., Fan, Q., Highfield, W., Liang, J., 2021. Economic impacts of storm surge events: examining state and national ripple effects. Climatic Change 166, 11.
15. Ding, W., Wu, J., 2023. Interregional economic impacts of an extreme storm flood scenario considering transportation interruption: A case study of Shanghai, China. Sustainable Cities and Society, 88, 104296,
16. Erdik, M., Durukal, E., 2008. Earthquake risk and its mitigation in Istanbul. Natural Hazards, 44 (2), 181-197.
17. Gignoux, J., Menéndez, M., 2016. Benefit in the wake of disaster: Long-run effects of earthquakes on welfare in rural Indonesia. Journal of Development Economics, 118, 26-44.
18. Ham, H., Kim, T.J., Boyce, D., 2005. Assessment of economic impacts from unexpected events with an interregional commodity flow and multimodal transportation network model. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 39 (10), 849-860.
19. Huang, M.C., Hosoe, N., 2017. Fiscal and social costs of recovery programs for an earthquake disaster in northern Taiwan. Journal of Asian Economics, 53, 1-17.
20. Kalantari, M., Firuzi, E., Ahmadipour, M., Sorooshian, S., 2023. Estimating annualized earthquake loss for residential buildings in Tehran, Iran. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering.
21. Khalid, M.A., Ali, Y., 2019. Analysing economic impact on interdependent infrastructure after flood: Pakistan a case in point. Environmental Hazards, 18 (2), 111-126.
22. Lam, C.Y., Shimizu, T., 2021. A network analytical framework to analyze infrastructure damage based on earthquake cascades: A study of earthquake cases in Japan. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 54, 102025.
23. Li, D., Wang, X., 2013. System Dynamics Simulation Model for Port Economy Analysis. J. Xu et al. (Edt.), Proceedings of the Sixth International Conference on Management Science and Engineering Management, Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering 185, içinde (s. 475-482). Londra: Springer-Verlag.
24. MacKenzie, C.A., Santos, J.R., Barker, K., 2012. Measuring changes in international production from a disruption: Case study of the Japanese earthquake and tsunami. International Journal of Production Economics, 138 (2), 293-302.
25. Nielsen-Pincus, M., Moseley, C., Gebert, K., 2014. Job growth and loss across sectors and time in the western US: The impact of large wildfires. Forest Policy and Economics, 38, 199-206.
26. Ogawa, Y., Akiyama, Y., Yokomatsu, M., Sekimoto, Y., Shibasaki, R., 2019. Estimation of supply chain network disruption of companies across the country affected by the Nankai Trough Earthquake tsunami in Kochi City. Journal of Disaster Research, 14 (3), 508-520.
27. Okuyama, Y., 2004. Modeling spatial economic impacts of an earthquake: Input‐output approaches. Disaster Prevention and Management, 13 (4), 297-306.
28. Okuyama, Y., Hewings, G.J., Sonis, M., 2002. Economic impacts of unscheduled events: sequential interindustry model (SIM) approach. 14th International Conference on Input-Output Techniques, October 10-15, 2002, Montréal, Canada.
29. Panwar, V., Sen, S., 2019. Economic impact of natural disasters: An empirical re-examination. Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, 13 (1), 109-139.
30. Peterson, D., Eberlein R., 1994. Reality check: A bridge between systems thinking and system dynamics. System Dynamics Review, 1O (2-3), 159-174.
31. Richmond, B., 2001. An introduction to systems thinking. Hanover: High Performance Systems, Inc.
32. Sayılgan, Ş., 2023. Depremin diğer yüzü ekonomiye etkisi. https://www.dunya.com/kose-yazisi/depremin-diger-yuzu-ekonomiyeetkisi/685741. Son erişim tarihi: 20 Ağustos 2023.
33. Schmude, J., Zavareh, S., Schwaiger, K.M., Karl, M., 2018. Micro-level assessment of regional and local disaster impacts in tourist destinations. Tourism Geographies, 20 (2), 290-308.
34. Shrestha, S.R., Orchiston, C.H., Elwood, K.J., Johnston, D.M., Becker, J.S., Tomassi, I., 2022. Understanding the wider social and economic context of post-earthquake cordons: A comparative case study between Christchurch, Aotearoa (New Zealand) and L’Aquila, Italy. Earthquake Spectra. 38 (4), 2731-2753.
35. Sterman, J.D., 2000. Business dynamics: systems thinking and modeling for a complex world. Boston: Irwin McGraw-Hill.
36. Tan, L., Wu, X., Xu, Z., Li, L., 2019. Comprehensive economic loss assessment of disaster based on CGE model and IO model—A case study on Beijing “7.21 Rainstorm”. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 39, 101246.
37. Tatano, H., Tsuchiya, S., 2008. A framework for economic loss estimation due to seismic transportation network disruption: a spatial computable general equilibrium approach. Natural Hazards, 44 (2), 253-265.
38. TÜİK., 2022a. Adrese Dayalı Nüfus Kayıt Sistemi Sonuçları, 2021. https://data.tuik. gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p= 45500#:~:text=T%C3%BCrkiye%20n%C3%BCfusu%2084%20milyon%20680,252%20bin%20172%20ki%C5%9Fi%20oldu. Son erişim tarihi: 10 Aralık 2022.
39. TÜİK., 2022b. İl Bazında Gayrisafi Yurt İçi Hasıla, 2021. https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Il-Bazinda-Gayrisafi-Yurt-Ici-Hasila-2021-45619#:~:text=Ki%C5%9Fi%20ba%C5%9F%C4%B1na%20GSYH'de%202021%20y%C4%B1l%C4%B1 nda%2C%20Kocaeli%20153%20bin%20479,son%20%C3%BC%C3%A7%20s%C4%B1rada%20yer%20ald%C4%B1. Son erişim tarihi: 10 Aralık 2022.
40. Uehara, T., Cordier, M., Hamaide, B., 2018. Fully Dynamic Input-Output/System Dynamics Modeling for Ecological-Economic System Analysis. Sustainability, 10, 1765.
41. Van der Veen, A., 2004. Disasters and economic damage: macro, meso and micro approaches. Disaster Prevention and Management: An International Journal, 13 (4), 274-280.
42. Wang, K., Yang, Y., Reniers, G., Li, J., Huang, Q., 2022. Predicting the spatial distribution of direct economic losses from typhoon storm surge disasters using case-based reasoning. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 68, 102704,
43. Wen, S., Su, B., Wang, Y., Fischer, T., Li, X., Yin, Y., Jiang, T., 2018. Economic sector loss from influential tropical cyclones and relationship to associated rainfall and wind speed in China. Global and Planetary Change, 169, 224-233.
44. Xiao, Y., 2011. Local economic impacts of natural disasters. Journal of Regional Science, 51 (4), 804-820.
45. Zhao, R., Zhong, S., He, A., 2018. Disaster impact, national aid, and economic growth: evidence from the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. Sustainability, 10 (12), 4409.