EFFECTS OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON TURKISH NATURAL STONE INDUSTRY: A GREY FORECASTING MODEL

Öz

When the indicators in recent years are examined in the developing and renewed economic environment in Turkey, it is seen that the momentum of the natural stone industry and its share in total mining exports have increased steadily. However, the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, which affected the whole world, also affected the Turkish natural industry. Within the scope of this study, the export values of the Turkish natural stone industry on a monthly and yearly basis were evaluated both before the pandemic and during the pandemic. Export figures for 2020 and 2021 were tried to be estimated using the Gray Forecast model. With the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic, natural stone export figures for 2020 fell behind 2019 in February, March, April and May. With the normalization process in June, July and Months, normalization started in export figures and exceeded the export values of 2019 in September, October, November and December. In 2020, which was entered with great hopes, it was not possible to reach the targeted figures this year due to the pandemic. In addition, Also, export values for 2020 and 2021 were predicted using a GM (1,1) grey forecasting model, which is a method frequently used in uncertainty cases. 2020 and 2021 export values were estimated by using the GM (1,1) gray forecasting model, which is a method frequently used in uncertainty situations. It has been seen that the model can be used reliably to predict natural stone export figures. In the following years, some assessments and recommendations have been made that may make the Turkish natural stone industry stronger in the following years on issues such as health management of crises and adaptation to the current situation if such outbreaks are replicated in the global world economy.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Turkish Natural Stone
• Export
• Covid-19 Pandemic
• Grey Forecast Model

COVİD-19 PANDEMİSİNİN TÜRK DOĞAL TAŞ SEKTÖRÜNE ETKİLERİ: BİR GRİ TAHMİN MODELİ

Öz

Türkiye'de gelişen ve yenilenen ekonomik ortamda son yıllardaki göstergeler incelendiğinde, doğal taş sektörünün ivmesinin ve toplam madencilik ihracatı içindeki payının istikrarlı bir şekilde arttığı görülmektedir. Ancak 2020 yılında tüm dünyayı etkisi altına alan Covid-19 salgını, Türkiye doğal taş endüstrisini de etkilemiştir. Bu çalışma kapsamında hem pandemi öncesi hem de pandemi döneminde Türkiye doğal taş sektörünün aylık ve yıllık olarak ihracat değerleri değerlendirilmiştir. 2020 ve 2021 yılına ait ihracat rakamları Gri Tahmin modeli kullanılarak tahmin edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Türkiye maden ihracatının %50’lik kısmını Doğal Taş ihracatı oluşturmaktadır. Covid-19 pandemisinin etkisiyle 2020 yılı doğal taş ihracat rakamları Şubat, Mart, Nisan ve Mayıs aylarında 2019 yılının gerisinde kalmıştır. Haziran, Temmuz ve Ağustos aylarında normalleşme süreci ile birlikte ihracat rakamlarında normalleşme başlamış ve Eylül, Ekim, Kasım ve Aralık aylarında 2019 yılı ihracat değerlerinin aşmıştır. Büyük umutlarla girilen 2020 yılında pandemi nedeniyle bu yıl hedeflenen rakamlara ulaşmak mümkün olmamıştır. Ayrıca belirsizlik durumlarında sıklıkla kullanılan bir yöntem olan GM (1,1) gri tahmin modeli kullanılarak 2020 ve 2021 ihracat değerleri tahmin edilmiştir. Modelin doğal taş ihracat rakamlarını tahminde güvenilir olarak kullanılabileceği görülmüştür. İlerleyen yıllarda krizlerin sağlıklı yönetimi ve bu tür salgınların küresel dünya ekonomisinde tekrarlanması halinde mevcut duruma uyum gibi konularda önümüzdeki yıllarda Türkiye doğal taş sektörünü daha güçlü kılabilecek bazı değerlendirmeler ve önerilerde bulunulmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Türk Doğal Taşı
• İhracat
• Covid-19 Pandemisi
• Gri Tahmin Modeli

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