Yıl 2019, Cilt 4 , Sayı 2, Sayfalar 85 - 94 2019-08-31

Time Series Analysis of Tuberculosis in Medea Province in Algeria

Mohamed L'Hadj [1] , Schehrazad Selmane [2]


Despite Algeria has been able to join the group of countries with moderate tuberculosis (TB) prevalence since the 1980s, the disease remains one of the major public health issues in the country. Over the past decade, the annual incidence rate has hovered around 55 per 100 000 people. The incidence rate remains, however, very high in some provinces. The aim of this study was to describe the temporal patterns of TB in Médéa province which records the highest incidence rate in the country. In this retrospective study, the monthly pulmonary TB (PTB) and extrapulmonary TB (EPTB) data from 2008 to 2017, extracted from the national surveillance system, were analyzed and seasonal fluctuation was examined. The Box-Jenkins approach to fit seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to the monthly PTB and EPTB notification data from 2008 to 2016 was performed. The models were used to predict the monthly cases of PTB and EPTB for the year 2017. The models were found to be adequate. Our findings indicate that SARIMA models are useful tools for monitoring and for predicting trends of TB incidence in Médea province.
Algeria, biostatistics, Box-Jenkins, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average, times series analysis, tuberculosis
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Birincil Dil en
Konular Matematik
Bölüm Research Article
Yazarlar

Orcid: 0000-0001-5589-6148
Yazar: Mohamed L'Hadj
Kurum: Health and Hospital Reform Services, Ministry of Health, Population and Hospital Reform
Ülke: Algeria


Orcid: 0000-0002-3035-8172
Yazar: Schehrazad Selmane (Sorumlu Yazar)
Kurum: University of Sciences and Technology Houari Boumediene
Ülke: Algeria


Tarihler

Yayımlanma Tarihi : 31 Ağustos 2019

Bibtex @araştırma makalesi { jetas595549, journal = {Journal of Engineering Technology and Applied Sciences}, issn = {}, eissn = {2548-0391}, address = {Yıldız Teknik Üniversitesi, Kimya Metalurji Fakültesi, Mathematik Mühendisliği, oda no:A235}, publisher = {Muhammet KURULAY}, year = {2019}, volume = {4}, pages = {85 - 94}, doi = {10.30931/jetas.595549}, title = {Time Series Analysis of Tuberculosis in Medea Province in Algeria}, key = {cite}, author = {Selmane, Schehrazad} }
APA L'Hadj, M , Selmane, S . (2019). Time Series Analysis of Tuberculosis in Medea Province in Algeria. Journal of Engineering Technology and Applied Sciences , 4 (2) , 85-94 . DOI: 10.30931/jetas.595549
MLA L'Hadj, M , Selmane, S . "Time Series Analysis of Tuberculosis in Medea Province in Algeria". Journal of Engineering Technology and Applied Sciences 4 (2019 ): 85-94 <https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/jetas/issue/48804/595549>
Chicago L'Hadj, M , Selmane, S . "Time Series Analysis of Tuberculosis in Medea Province in Algeria". Journal of Engineering Technology and Applied Sciences 4 (2019 ): 85-94
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - Time Series Analysis of Tuberculosis in Medea Province in Algeria AU - Mohamed L'Hadj , Schehrazad Selmane Y1 - 2019 PY - 2019 N1 - doi: 10.30931/jetas.595549 DO - 10.30931/jetas.595549 T2 - Journal of Engineering Technology and Applied Sciences JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 85 EP - 94 VL - 4 IS - 2 SN - -2548-0391 M3 - doi: 10.30931/jetas.595549 UR - https://doi.org/10.30931/jetas.595549 Y2 - 2019 ER -
EndNote %0 Journal of Engineering Technology and Applied Sciences Time Series Analysis of Tuberculosis in Medea Province in Algeria %A Mohamed L'Hadj , Schehrazad Selmane %T Time Series Analysis of Tuberculosis in Medea Province in Algeria %D 2019 %J Journal of Engineering Technology and Applied Sciences %P -2548-0391 %V 4 %N 2 %R doi: 10.30931/jetas.595549 %U 10.30931/jetas.595549
ISNAD L'Hadj, Mohamed , Selmane, Schehrazad . "Time Series Analysis of Tuberculosis in Medea Province in Algeria". Journal of Engineering Technology and Applied Sciences 4 / 2 (Ağustos 2019): 85-94 . https://doi.org/10.30931/jetas.595549
AMA L'Hadj M , Selmane S . Time Series Analysis of Tuberculosis in Medea Province in Algeria. jetas. 2019; 4(2): 85-94.
Vancouver L'Hadj M , Selmane S . Time Series Analysis of Tuberculosis in Medea Province in Algeria. Journal of Engineering Technology and Applied Sciences. 2019; 4(2): 94-85.