Belt and Road Initiative and International Political Economy: Convergence to Transformation from Liberal Globalization to Realist Globalization?

Öz

This paper examines whether an association emerges between the tendencies of BRI and the international system in terms of globalization which is a good signal for the main characteristic of the international system. The paper has three sections. The first analyzes the tendencies of the international system, the second analyzes the convergence of BRI corridors, and the third discusses the emergence of association between BRI and the international system and the case of non-participants of BRI but effective countries in the international system. The coefficient of variation is used to determine convergence through the KOF Globalization Index-2022 due to its very effective separation between markets and states to support globalization. The conclusion indicates that the international system and BRI have an association in a transformation from liberal globalization to realist globalization while Italy, Germany, and the United Kingdom have a reverse transformation with their recent critical positions to BRI.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Belt and Road Initiative
• International System
• Convergence
• Globalization
• Transformation

Kuşak Yol İnisiyatifi ve Uluslararası Politik Ekonomi: Liberal Küreselleşmeden Realist Küreselleşmeye doğru bir Yakınsama mı?

Öz

Bu makale, uluslararası sistemin temel karakteristiğine dair iyi bir sinyal olan küreselleşme açısından BRI'nın eğilimleri ile uluslararası sistem arasında bir ilişkinin ortaya çıkıp çıkmadığını incelemektedir. Makalenin üç bölümü var. Birincisi uluslararası sistemin eğilimlerini analiz ediyor, ikincisi BRI koridorlarının yakınlaşmasını analiz ediyor ve üçüncüsü BRI ile uluslararası sistem arasındaki ilişkinin ortaya çıkışını ve BRI'ya katılmayan ancak uluslararası sistemde etkili olan ülkelerin durumunu tartışıyor. Küreselleşmeyi desteklemek için piyasalar ve devletler arasında çok etkili bir ayrım yapılması nedeniyle KOF Küreselleşme Endeksi-2022 aracılığıyla yakınsamayı belirlemek için varyasyon katsayısı kullanılmaktadır. Sonuç, uluslararası sistem ile BRI'nın liberal küreselleşmeden realist küreselleşmeye geçişte bir birlikteliğe sahip olduğunu, İtalya, Almanya ve Birleşik Krallık'ın ise BRI'ya yönelik son dönemdeki kritik konumlarıyla ters bir dönüşüm yaşadığını göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Kuşak Yol İnisiyatifi
• Uluslararası Sistem
• Yakınsama
• Küreselleşme
• Dönüşüm

Kaynakça

1. Akram, V., Singh, S., & Sahoo, P. K. (2023). A club convergence analysis of financial integration: Cross-country evidence. Studies in Economics and Finance. https://doi.org/10.1108/SEF-11-2022-0543
2. Beyer, P., & Robertson, R. (Eds.). (2022). Globalization/glocalization: Developments in theory and application: essays in honour of Roland Robertson. Brill.
3. Casas i Klett, T., & Serrano, O. (2018). Free Trade Agreements as BRI’s Stepping-Stone to Multilateralism: Is the Sino–Swiss FTA the Gold Standard? In W. Zhang, I. Alon, & C. Lattemann (Eds.), China’s Belt and Road Initiative (pp. 75–93). Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-75435-2_5
4. Chen, Y., Fan, Z., Zhang, J., & Mo, M. (2019). Does the Connectivity of the Belt and Road Initiative Contribute to the Economic Growth of the Belt and Road Countries? Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 55(14), 3227–3240. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2019.1643315
5. Clarke, M. (2017). The Belt and Road Initiative. Asia Policy, 24, 71–79. JSTOR. Doyle, M. (1986). Liberalism and World Politics. The American Political Science Review, 80(4), 1151–1169.
6. Duckett, J. (2020). Neoliberalism, Authoritarian Politics and Social Policy in China. Development and Change, 51(2), 523–539. https://doi.org/10.1111/dech.12568
7. Endaylalu, G. A. (2022). The Implication of the Rise of China to the US-Led Liberal International Order: The Case of One Belt and One Road Initiatives. Chinese Journal of International Review, 04(01). Directory of Open Access Journals. https://doi.org/10.1142/S2630531322500020
8. Fang, X. (2015). The Belt and Road initiative: Connecting China and Central Europe. International Issues & Slovak Foreign Policy Affairs, 24(3), 3–14. JSTOR Journals.

9. Gong, X., & Cortese, C. (2017). A socialist market economy with Chinese characteristics: The accounting annual report of China Mobile. Accounting Forum, 41(3), 206–220. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accfor.2017.04.002
10. Gozgor, G. (2018). Robustness of the KOF index of economic globalisation. The World Economy, 41(2), 414–430. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12546
11. Gygli, S., Haelg, F., Potrafke, N., & Sturm, J.-E. (2019). The KOF Globalisation Index – revisited. The Review of International Organizations, 14(3), 543–574. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11558-019-09344-2
12. Harvey, D. (2011). A brief history of neoliberalism (1. publ. in paperback, reprint. (twice)). Oxford Univ. Press.
13. Herrero, A. G., & Xu, J. (2017). China’s Belt and Road Initiative: Can Europe Expect Trade Gains? China & World Economy, 25(6), 84–99. https://doi.org/10.1111/cwe.12222
14. Johnston, A. I. (2003). Is China a Status Quo Power? International Security, 27(4), 5–56. Kahraman, A. İ. (2018). Belt and Road Initiative: The Eurasian Cold War? Caucasus International, 8(2), 43–61.
15. Kalyanpur, N. (2023). An illiberal economic order: Commitment mechanisms become tools of authoritarian coercion. Review of International Political Economy, 30(4), 1238–1254. https://doi.org/10.1080/09692290.2023.2211280
16. Kay, S. (2004). Globalization, Power, and Security. Security Dialogue, 35(1), 9–25. https://doi.org/10.1177/0967010604042533
17. Kentikelenis, A., & Babb, S. (2019). The Making of Neoliberal Globalization: Norm Substitution and the Politics of Clandestine Institutional Change. American Journal of Sociology, 124, 1720–1762. OpenAIRE.
18. Kratz, A., & Pavlićević, D. (2019). Norm-making, norm-taking or norm-shifting? A case study of Sino–Japanese competition in the Jakarta–Bandung high-speed rail project. Third World Quarterly, 40(6), 1107–1126. https://doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2018.1523677
19. Larçon, J.-P. (2018). China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Business Strategies in the Baltic Sea Region. Chińska Inicjatywa Pasa i Szlaku i Strategie Biznesowe w Regionie Morza Bałtyckiego., 58(4), 96–109. Business Source Ultimate.
20. Liang, Y. (2020). RMB Internationalization and Financing Belt-Road Initiative: An MMT Perspective. The Chinese Economy, 53(4), 317–328. https://doi.org/10.1080/10971475.2020.1728478
21. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China, Ministry of Commerce of China, & National Development and Reform Commission. (2017). Vision and Actions on Jointly Building Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road. http://2017.beltandroadforum.org/english/n100/2017/0410/c22-45.html
22. Morris, N. (2018). Developing a Sustainable Legal System for the Belt and Road Initiative. In W. Shan, K. Nuotio, & Kangle (Eds.), Normative readings of the belt and road initiative: Road to new paradigms. Springer Berlin Heidelberg.
23. Newman, E. (2007). A crisis of global institutions? Multilateralism and international security. Routledge.
24. Palley, T. (2020). Re-Theorizing the Welfare State and the Political Economy of Neoliberalism’s Campaign Against It. Journal of Economic Issues, 54(3), 588–612. https://doi.org/10.1080/00213624.2020.1778396
25. Quiroga, P. A. B. (2007). Theory of Convergence (Theory, History and Evidence of Economic Convergence in Latin America, pp. 6–20). Instituto de Estudios Avanzados en Desarrollo (INESAD); JSTOR. http://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep00574.4
26. Remington, T. F. (2023). Making Liberalism Work. Journal of Democracy, 34(3), 77–89. https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2023.a900434
27. Robertson, R. (2014). European glocalization in global context. Palgrave Macmillan.
28. Rodrik, D. (2011). The Globalization Paradox: Why Global Markets, States, and Democracy Can’t Coexist. OUP Oxford; eBook Collection (EBSCOhost). https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=nlebk&AN=447961&lang=tr&site=eds-live
29. Rodrik, D. (2019, June 11). Globalization’s Wrong Turn. Foreign Affairs, July/August 2019. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2019-06-11/globalizations-wrong-turn
30. Roudometof, V. (2016). Glocalization: A critical introduction. Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group.
31. Roy, S. (2011). The relevance of the Realist Paradigm in the age of globalization. Jadavpur Journal of International Relations, 15(1), 146–163. https://doi.org/10.1177/0973598411110010
32. Sheikh, F. (2016). Islam and international relations: Exploring community and the limits of universalism. Rowman & Littlefield International.
33. Strange, S. (1999). The Westfailure System. Review of International Studies, 25(3), 345–354. JSTOR.
34. Syed, J., & Ying, Y.-H. (Eds.). (2019). China’s Belt and Road Initiative in a Global Context: Volume I: A Business and Management Perspective. Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-14722-8
35. Ünay, S. (Ed.). (2017). Global political economy after the crisis: Theoretical perspectives and country experiences. Nova Science Publishers, Inc.
36. Vázquez-Arroyo, A. Y. (2008). Liberal Democracy and Neoliberalism: A Critical Juxtaposition. New Political Science, 30(2), 127–159. https://doi.org/10.1080/07393140802063192
37. World Bank (Ed.). (2019). Belt and road economics: Opportunities and risks of transport corridors. World Bank Group.
38. Xiang, J., Primiano, C. B., & Huang, W. (2015). Aggressive or Peaceful Rise? An Empirical Assessment of China’s Militarized Conflict, 1979–2010. Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, 21(3). https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2015-0004
39. Yan, X. (2018). Chinese Values vs. Liberalism: What Ideology Will Shape the International Normative Order? The Chinese Journal of International Politics, 11(1), 1–22. https://doi.org/10.1093/cjip/poy001
40. Yu, P., Chen, Z., & Hu, Y. (2021a). The Impact of Belt and Road Initiative on Regional Financial Integration – Empirical Evidence from Bond and Money Markets in Belt and Road Countries. The Chinese Economy, 54(4), 286–308. https://doi.org/10.1080/10971475.2020.1857061
41. Yu, P., Chen, Z., & Hu, Y. (2021b). The Impact of Belt and Road Initiative on Regional Financial Integration – Empirical Evidence from Bond and Money Markets in Belt and Road Countries. The Chinese Economy, 54(4), 286–308. https://doi.org/10.1080/10971475.2020.1857061
42. Zehra, N. (2011). The Realist State and Deglobalization. Policy Perspectives, 8(2), 33–52. JSTOR.
43. Zhang, F., Yu, M., Yu, J., & Jin, Y. (2017). The Effect of RMB Internationalization on Belt and Road Initiative: Evidence from Bilateral Swap Agreements. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 53(12), 2845–2857. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2017.1382346
44. Zhang, Z. (2018). The Belt and Road Initiative: China’s New Geopolitical Strategy? China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies, 04(03), 327–343. https://doi.org/10.1142/S2377740018500240