A Study on Determinants of Coffee Export from Indonesia to The United States of America

Öz

This research was conducted to reveal the determinants of Indonesia's coffee exports to the USA. In addition, it has been determined as the sub-objectives of the research to reveal the reasons for the recent decline in coffee exports and to try to produce alternative policies to increase the value of coffee exports from Indonesia to the USA. In this research, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration analysis estimation method was implemented by using EViews 12 program. As a result of the analysis, it was determined that the exchange rate of the US Dollar against the Indonesian Rupiah and the annual inflation rate of Indonesia did not have a statistically significant effect on the value of coffee exports in both the short and long run. In addition, variables of world coffee prices, US coffee consumption, world tea prices, Indonesia's coffee export prices to the USA, terms of trade, trade openness, and Indonesia's coffee planting area were found to be statistically significant. Furthermore, it has been determined that the US coffee consumption and Indonesia's coffee export price to the USA have a positive effect in the short term, but have a negative effect in the long term. Among all the independent variables, it was revealed that the Indonesian coffee planting area variable had the greatest effect. Therefore, it can be stated that policymakers should try to address the challenges of exporting to increase the export value of Indonesian coffee to the US and be careful not to overly focus on exchange rate fixing or inflation targeting as these two variables have no significant impact on export value. In addition, paying attention to the issue of product development that increases added value can be expressed as the most important of the suggestions that can be made based on the results obtained.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Coffee export
• ARDL model
• Indonesia
• USA
• Cointegration

Endonezya’dan Amerika Birleşik Devletleri’ne Kahve İhracatının Belirleyicileri Üzerine Bir Araştırma

Öz

Bu araştırma, Endonezya’nın ABD’ye yaptığı kahve ihracatının belirleyicilerini ortaya koymak amacıyla yapılmıştır. Ayrıca, kahve ihracatında son dönemlerde meydana gelen değer düşüşlerinin nedenlerini ortaya koymak ve Endonezya’dan ABD’ye yapılan kahve ihracatının değerini artırmak için alternatif politikalar üretmeye çalışmak araştırmanın alt amaçları olarak belirlenmiştir. Bu araştırmada, EViews 12 yazılım programı ile Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) eşbütünleşme analizi tahmin yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Analiz sonucunda, hem kısa hem de uzun dönemde ABD dolarının Endonezya rupisi karşısındaki döviz kuru ve Endonezya yıllık enflasyon oranının istatistiksel olarak kahve ihracat değeri üzerinde önemli bir etki göstermediği belirlenmiştir. Ayrıca dünya kahve fiyatları, ABD kahve tüketimi, dünya çay fiyatları, Endonezya'nın ABD'ye kahve ihracat fiyatları, dış ticaret hadleri, ticari dışa açıklık ve Endonezya’nın kahve dikim alanı değişkenleri istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bulunmuştur. Bu arada, kısa dönemde ABD kahve tüketimi ve Endonezya’nın ABD’ye kahve ihracat fiyatı olumlu bir etki verdiği ancak uzun dönemde olumsuz olarak etkilediği tespit edilmiştir. Tüm bağımsız değişkenler arasında Endonezya kahve dikim alanı değişkeninin en büyük etkiye sahip olduğu ortaya konmuştur. Buradan, politika yapıcılar Endonezya kahvesinin ABD'ye ihracat değerini artırmak için ihracatın zorluklarını ele almaya çalışmaları gerektiği ve Endonezya kahvesi ihracat değeri üzerinde hiçbir etkisi olmadığı için döviz kuru sabitlemesine veya enflasyon hedeflemesine aşırı odaklanmamaya dikkat etmeleri gerektiği ifade edilebilir. Ayrıca katma değeri artıran ürün geliştirme konusuna dikkat edilmesi elde edilen sonuçlardan yola çıkarak yapılabilecek önerilerden en önemlileri olarak ifade edilebilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Kahve ihracatı
• ARDL modeli
• Endonezya
• ABD
• Eşbütünleşme

Kaynakça

1. Abimanyu, Y. (2016). Oil Price, Government Revenue, Export Value, and Economic Growth: Indonesia’s Case. Kajian Ekonomi Dan Keuangan, 20(3), 213–230. https://fiskal.kemenkeu.go.id/ejournal/index.php/kek/article/view/194
2. Akalpler, E. (2013). Does Inflation Increase the Export? Case Study Turkey. Theoretical and Practical Research in Economic Fields, 4(2), 123–136. Retrieved from https://search.proquest.com/docview/1501616139?accountid=14744%0Ahttps://cbua-us.primo.exlibrisgroup.com/discovery/openurl?institution=34CBUA_US&vid=34CBUA_US:VU1&lang=es?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&genre=article&sid=ProQ:
3. Bereket, I. (2020). The Determinates of Export in Ethiopia, an Auto Regressive Distributive Lag Bound Test Approach. Journal of World Economic Research, 9(1), 20. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.jwer.20200901.13
4. Central Bureau of Statistics. (2021, November 30). 2022 Indonesian Coffee Statistics. Retrieved from Endonezya İstatistik Kurumu: https://www.bps.go.id/publication/2021/11/30/b1b6cf2a6aad1ee2d8a4c656/statistik-kopi-indonesia-2020.html
5. Central Bureau of Statistics. (2022, July 29). Coffee Exports by Main Target Countries, 2000-2021. Retrieved from Central Bureau of Statistics: https://www.bps.go.id/statictable/2014/09/08/1014/ekspor-kopi-menurut-negara-tujuan-utama-2000-2020.html
6. Hilman, A. L. (2008). Trade Liberalization and Globalization. Readings in Public Choice and Constitutional Political Economy, January 2008, 1–625. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-75870-1
7. Ilmas, N., Amelia, M., & Risandi, R. (2022). Analysis of the Effect of Inflation and Exchange Rate on Exports In 5-Year Asean. Jurnal Ekonomi Trisakti, 2(1), 121–132. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.25105/jet.v2i1.13561
8. IMF. (2022, Temmuz 28). Primary Commodity Prices. Retrieved from IMF: https://www.imf.org/en/Research/commodity-prices

9. International Coffee Organization. (2020). The value of coffee. 108.
10. International Coffee Organization. (2020). Coffee Development Report. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-7787-8_3
11. Kartika, W., Darus, H. M. M. B., & Ayu, S. fajar. (2013). Analisis Kontribusi Ekspor Kopi terhadap PDRB Sektor Perkebunan dan Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Nilai Ekspor Kopi Sumatera Utara. Journal of Agriculture and Agribusiness Socioeconomics, 2(10), 1–14.
12. Komaling, R. J. (2013). Analisis Determinan Ekspor Kopi Indonesia ke Jerman Periode 1993-2011. EMBA, 1(4), 2025–2035.
13. Nyeadi, J. D., Atiga, O., & Atogenzoya, C. A. (2014). The Impact of Exchange Rate Movement on Export: Empirical Evidence from Ghana. International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, 4(3). https://doi.org/10.6007/ijarafms/v4-i3/980
14. OECD. (2012). REViews of Regulatory Reform: Indonesia Market Openess. September 2012, 65. http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/content/book/9789264042940-en%5Cn
15. OECD. (2022, Ocak 7). Terms of trade. Retrieved from OECD: https://data.oecd.org/trade/terms-of-trade.htm
16. Pahlavani, M., Wilson, E., & Worthingt, A. C. (2005). Trade-GDP Nexus in Iran: An Application of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model. American Journal of Applied Sciences, 2(7), 1158–1165. https://doi.org/10.3844/ajassp.2005.1158.1165
17. Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
18. Quadra, G. R., Paranaíba, J. R., Vilas-Boas, J., Roland, F., Amado, A. M., Barros, N., … Cardoso, S. J. (2020). A global trend of caffeine consumption over time and related-environmental impacts. Environmental Pollution, 256, 2016–2021. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2019.113343
19. Segarani, L. P. M., & Dewi, P. M. (2012). Pengaruh Luas Lahan, Jumlah Produksi, dan Kurs Dollar pada Ekspor Cengkeh di Indonesia. E-Jurnal EP Unud, 4(4), 272–283.
20. Torok, A., Mizik, T., & Jambor, A. (2018). International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues The Competitiveness of Global Coffee Trade. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 8(5), 1–6. http:www.econjournals.com
21. Uçar, Ö. (2014). Türkiye Fındık İhracat Talebi. Uludağ Üniversitesi.
22. Usman, A. (2014). Impact of Trade Openness on Export Performance: Case Study Of Pakistan. KDI School of Public Policy and Management in.
23. World Bank. (2004). International Trade Statistics 2004. In International Trade Statistics 2004. https://doi.org/10.30875/b7332a32-en
24. World Bank. (2016), World Integrated Trade Solution Database. Available from: http://www.wits.worldbank.org/. [Last access 2022 August 2].
25. World Bank. (2022, February 15). Trade (% of GDP). Retrieved from World Bank: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS
26. World Bank. (2022, July 20). GDP (current US$). Retrieved from World Bank: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD
27. World Trade Organization. (4, October 2021). Global trade rebound beats expectations but marked by regional divergences. Retrieved from World Trade Organization: https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres21_e/pr889_e.htm