Trend Analysis of Precipitation and Temperature Variables of Siirt

Öz

Trend analysis of meteorological variables is important in the determination of climate change. Precision is an important component of the hydraulic cycle and changes in temperature and precipitation affect agriculture, living ecosystems and water resources management. This study analyses Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA), Mann-Kendall, Sen slope and Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) to determine the trends of temperature and precipitation variables between 1980 and 2023 in Siirt province and climate change indicators were determined. Meteorological variables were evaluated separately on monthly, seasonal and annual scales. The results obtained from Mann-Kendall, ITA, IPTA and Sen trend analyses for precipitation and temperature variables were compared against each other. The results of all trend analyses for precipitation show a decreasing slope, while an increasing trend is detected in temperature values. The trend values are larger at monthly and seasonal scales. The trend results obtained in the present study indicate that more attention should be paid to drought risk management and water resources management in Siirt province.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Temperature
• Trend analysis
• Precipitation
• Mann-Kendall
• Sen slope
• ITA
• IPTA

Proje Numarası

1919B012320270

Siirt İlinin Yağış ve Sıcaklık Değişkenlerinin Trend Analizi

Öz

Meteorolojik değişkenlerin trend analizi iklim değişikliğinin belirlenmesinde önemlidir. Özellikle yağış, hidrolojik çevrimin önemli bir bileşenidir. Sıcaklık ve yağıştaki değişimler tarımı, canlı ekosistemleri ve su kaynakları yönetimini etkiler. Bu çalışmada, Siirt ilinin 1980-2023 yılları arasında sıcaklık ve yağış değişkenlerinin eğilimlerini belirlemek için İnovatif Trend analizi (ITA), Mann-Kendall, Sen eğimi ve İnovatif Poligon Trend Analiz (IPTA) analizleri yapılarak iklim değişikliği göstergeleri belirlenmiştir. Meteorolojik değişkenler aylık, mevsimsel ve yıllık olarak ayrı ayrı değerlendirilmiştir. Yağış ve sıcaklık değişkenlerinin, Mann-Kendall, ITA, IPTA ve Sen trend analizlerinden elde edilen sonuçları birbirleriyle karşılaştırılmıştır. Yağış bütün trend analizlerinin sonuçlarına göre azalan bir eğim gösterirken, sıcaklık değerlerinde ise artan bir trend tespit edilmiştir. Aylık ve mevsimsel ölçekte daha büyük trend değerleri elde edilmiştir. Mevcut çalışmada elde edilen trend sonuçlarına göre Siirt ilinde kuraklık risk yönetimi ve su kaynakları yönetimine daha fazla dikkat edilmesini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Yağış
• Sıcaklık
• Trend analizi
• ITA
• IPTA
• Mann-Kendall
• Sen eğimi

Destekleyen Kurum

TÜBİTAK Türkiye Bilimsel ve Teknolojik Araştırma Kurumu (BİDEB)

Proje Numarası

1919B012320270

Teşekkür

Bu çalışmada kullanılan veri tabanını sağlayan Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü'ne (MGM) teşekkür ederim. Bu çalışma TÜBİTAK Türkiye Bilimsel ve Teknolojik Araştırma Kurumu (BİDEB) tarafından yürütülen 2209-A Üniversite Öğrencileri Araştırma Projeleri Destekleme Programı kapsamında desteklenmektedir. Proje numarası 1919B012320270’tir.

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