Air Transportation Demand Estimation in Turkey by Arima Models

Öz

The air transportation, which is gradually become more important and widespread in our country, is as the day goes on getting more attention and more demand in domestic ights except for using just for internal ights. In terms of knowing the demand for air transportation, institutions and companies determine of the strategy, pricing policy and infrastructure work. In this study, under the framework of ARIMA models which were used in univariate time series analysis and based on the internal dynamics of air transport between 1991-2008, monthly number of passengers forecasts for the year 2009 are carried out and reliability of the forecasts evaluated.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Time series,air transport,demand estimation,ARIMA models

Türkiye’de Hava Ulaşım Talebinin Arıma Modelleri ile Tahmin Edilmesi

Öz

Ülkemizdeki ulaşım ağları içerisinde gittikçe önem kazanan ve yaygınlaşan havayolu ulaşımı, dış hatlar diye nitelenen ülkeler arası ulaşımda ilk tercih edilen ulaşım yolu olmasının yanında, iç hatlar diye nitelenen şehirlerarası yolculukta da geçmişe nazaran çok daha fazla ilgi görmekte ve havayolu ulaşımına talep gün geçtikçe artmaktadır. Havayolu ulaşım talebinin bilinmesi, kurumlar ve şirketler için strateji belirleme, yat politikalarını oluşturma ve altyapı çalışmaları açısından büyük bir avantaj sağlayacaktır. Bu çalışmada, tek değişkenli zaman serileri analizlerinde kullanılan ARIMA modelleri çerçevesinde, 1991–2008 yılları arasındaki süre zarfında, havayolu ulaşımının kendi dinamiklerinden hareketle 2009 yılı için aylık yolcu sayılarının tahmin edilmesi gerçekleştirilmiş ve elde edilen tahminlerin güvenilirliği değerlendirilmiştir. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Zaman serileri,havayolu ulaşımı,talep tahmini,ARIMA modelleri

Kaynakça

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