THE ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF GROWING ANTISMOKING ATTITUDES IN TURKEY: AT THE FRAMEWORK OF GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS

Abstract

This study aims to investigate the effects of changing smoking attitudes as income grows on the output level of the tobacco industry and on the share of tobacco goods in household budget in Turkey for the period of 2004-2014 using GTAP general equilibrium model. Our analysis indicates that the share of tobacco product in household budget decreases 21% with economic growth between 2004-2014 and also this rate in household budget declines almost 50% with anti-smoking attitudes. And also this study indicates that if consumer demand for tobacco goods hadn’t been changed, industrial output could have increased nearly 98%.  

Keywords

• Income Elasticity of Demand,Computable General Equilibrium

Kaynakça

1. Arndt, C., 1996, An Introduction to Systematic Sensitivity Analysis via Gaussian Quadratuna, Technical Paper, GTAP Resource.
2. Arndt, C., 1997, China in 2005: Implications for the Rest of the World, Journal of Economic Integration, 12(4) December, 505-547.
3. Bobak, M., Prabhat, J., Son N., and Martin J., 2000, Poverty and Smoking, Edited by PhabhatJha and Frank Chaloupka, Tobacco Control in DevelopingCountries, Oxford: Oxford University Press, New York, ISBN: 0192632507
4. Burfisher, M., 2011, Introduction to Computable General Equilibrium Models, Cambridge University Press, New York, ISBN:9780521139779
5. Dagli, E., 1999, Are low Income Countries Targets of the Tobacco Industry?, InternationalTuberculos Lung Dısease, 3(2):113–118.
6. Deaton, A., 2002, Policy Implications of the Gradient of Health and Wealth, Health Affairs, 21(2):13-30.
7. Goel, R., Nelson, M., 2006, The Effectıveness of Antı-Smokıng Legıslatıon: a Revıew, Journal of Economıc Surveys, Vol. 20, No. 3.
8. Hertel, T.W.,1997, Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and Applications, Cambridge University Press, New York, ISBN:978-0521643740

9. Kenkel, D., Schmeiser, M. and Urban, C., 2014, Is Smoking Inferior? Evidence from Variation in the Earned Income Tax Credit, NBER Working Paper, No: 20097
10. Kilic, D., Oztürk, S., 2014, Gender Differences in Cigarette Consumption in Turkey: Evidence from the Global Adult Tobacco Survey, Health Policy, Volume 114, Issues 2–3, February 2014, 207–214.
11. Mas-Colell, A., D. Whinston, M., and R. Green, J., 1995, Microeconomic Theory, New York and Oxford, Oxford University Press, New York, ISBN:9780195102680
12. Peck, R. M., 2011, Equity Issues, Tobacco, and the Poor, Edited by AydaYurekli and Joy de Beyer, World Bank Economics of Tobacco Toolkit.
13. Tansel, A., 1993, Cigarette Demand, Health Scares and Education in Turkey, Applied Economics, 25:4, 521-529
14. Townsend, Joy L., 1987, Cigarette Tax, Economic Welfare and Social Class Patterns of Smoking, Applied Economics, 19:3, 355-365.
15. Warner, K., 1977, The Effects of the Anti-Smoking Campaign On Cigarette Consumption, AJPH, Vol. 67, No, 7.
16. WHO, 2015, Global trends and projections for tobacco use, 1990–2025:an analysis of smoking indicators from the WHOComprehensive Information Systems for Tobacco Control, 2015; 385: 966–76. World Bank, 2013, Global Trends in Tobacco Use, http://web.worldbank.org/wbsite/external/topics/exthealthnutritionandpopulation/
17. Yurekli, A., Onder, Z., Elibol, H.M., Erk, N., Cabuk, A., Fisunoglu, M., Erk,
18. S.F.,Wasserman, J., Willard G. M., Joseph P. N., and John D. W., 1991, The Effects of Excise Taxes and Regulations on Cigarette Smoking, Journal of Health Economics, May;10(1):43-64