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THE IMPACT OF ECONOMIC EXPECTATION, SOCIAL CAPITAL AND HOPE ON MIGRATION REQUEST AND ACTION

Yıl 2021, , 47 - 58, 11.01.2021
https://doi.org/10.15637/jlecon.8.1.05

Öz

In this study, the factors affecting the request and action of migration are examined with empirical method within the scope of neoclassical economic theories and behavioral economic thought. A survey of a selected sample was analyzed with structural equation modeling. There was a linear relationship between migration and economic expectation, social capital and hope. It was found that the Economic Expectation Variable had a very strong negative effect on individuals’ decision to immigrate and desire to migrate (γ = -0.99; t = -17.87). Hope variable has a very strong negative effect on individuals’ migration decision and desire to migrate (γ = -0.96; t = -13.66). The Social Capital Secret Variable has a negatively moderate effect on individuals’ decision to immigrate and desire to migrate (γ = -0.48; t = -8.19). It was seen that economic and political conjuncture was effective in the decision of migration of individuals.

Kaynakça

  • ADLER, P. S., & KWON, S. W. (2002). Social Capital: Prospects For a New Concept. Academy of, 27(1), 17-40.
  • ALESİNA, A., & GIULIANO, P. (2011). Family Ties and Political Participation. Journal of the European Economic Association, 9(5), 817-839.
  • ALESİNA, A., ALGAN, Y., CAHUC, P., & GIULIANO, P. (2015). Family Values and The Regulation of Labor. Journal of the European Economic Association, 13(4), 599-630.
  • ANONYMOUS. (2018a, Novenber 30). Provincial / District Centers and Town / Village Population, General Population Censuses by Years and Gender ADNKS,. tuik: http://www.tuik.gov.tr/UstMenu.do?metod=temelist adresinden alındı
  • ANONYMOUS. (2019b, December 15). Labor Force Statistics, August 2019 Newsletter. tuik: http://www.tuik.gov.tr/PreTablo.do?alt_id=1007 adresinden alındı
  • ANONYMOUS. (2019c, December 12). Agricultural Holdings Labour Wage Structure. tuik: http://www.tuik.gov.tr/UstMenu.do?metod=temelist. adresinden alındı
  • ANONYMOUS. (2019d, December 15). Minimum wage. tuik: https://www.ailevecalisma.gov.tr/istatistikler/calisma-hayati-istatistikleri/asgari-ucret/asgari-ucret-2019/ adresinden alındı
  • ANONYMOUS. (2019e, December 18). Migration, Net Migration and Net Migration Rate of Provinces, General Population Censuses - ABPRS. tuik: http://www.tuik.gov.tr/UstMenu.do?metod=temelist adresinden alındı
  • BALCIOĞLU, I. (2007). Migration in Social and Psychological Terms. Bilge Publishing.
  • BENTLER, P. M., & YUAN, K. H. (1999). Structural Equation Modeling With Small Samples: Test Statistics. Multivariate Behavioral Research, 34(2), 181-197.
  • BİÇKI, D. (2011). Buıldıng The Future in Cıty: Mıgratıon Trends in Canakkale Rural. Süleyman Demirel University Journal of the Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 16(3), 149-169.
  • BOURDIEU, P. (1989). Social Space and Symbolic Power. Sociological Theory,, 7(1), 14-25.
  • BOURDIEU, P., & WACQUANT, L. J. (1992). An invitation to Reflexive Sociology. Chicago: University of Chicago press.
  • CHEUNG, G. W., & RENSVOLD, R. B. (2002). Evaluating Goodness-of-fit Indexes for Testing Measurement invariance. Structural Equation Modeling, 9(2), 233-255.
  • COLEMAN, J. S. (1988). Social Capital in the Creation of Human Capital. American Journal of Sociology (94), 95-120.
  • CRAWFORD, T. J. (1973). Beliefs About Birth Control: A Consistency Theory Analysis. Representative Research in Social Psychology, 4(1), 53.
  • CZAIKA, M. (2015). Migration and Economic Prospects. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 41(1), 58-82.
  • DAVID, Q. J. (2010). Local Social Capital and Geographical Mobility. Journal of Urban Economics, 68(2), 191-204.
  • DELLER, S., TSUNG-HSİU, T., MARCOUILLER, D.W., ENGLISH, D.B.K. (2001). The Role of Amenities and Quality of Life in Rural Economic Growth. Am. J. Agric. Econ, 352.
  • ESSES, V. M., HODSON, G., & DOVIDIO, J. F. (2003). Public Attitudes Toward Immigrants and Immigration: Determinants and Policy İmplications.
  • ESSES, V. M., JACKSON, L. M., & BENNETT-ABUAYYASH, C. (2010). Intergroup competition. The Sage Handbook of Prejudice, Stereotyping and Discrimination, 1, 225-240.
  • HAGEN‐ZANKER, J. (2008). Why Do People Migrate? A Review Of The Theoretical Literature. A Review Of The Theoretical Literature (January 2008). Maastrcht Graduate School of Governance Working Paper No.
  • HARRIS, J. R., & TODARO, M. P. (1970). Migration, Unemployment and Development: a two-sector analysis. The American economic review, 60(1), 126-142.
  • HERSHBERGER, S. L. (2003). The Growth of Structural Equation Modeling: 1994-2001. Structural Equation Modeling, 10(1), 35-46.
  • HOTCHKISS, J. L., & RUPASINGHA, A. (2018). Individual Social Capital and Migration. Workıng Paper Serıes, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  • HOYLE, R. (1995). Structural Equation Modeling: Concepts, İssues, and Applications. I. R. (Ed.) içinde, The structural Equation Modeling Approach. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.: Structural Equation Modeling: Concepts, Issues and Applications.
  • ILHAN, M., & CETİN, B. (2014). Comparing the analysis Results Of The Structural Equation Models (SEM) Conducted Using
  • LISREL and AMOS. Journal Of Measurement and Evaluatıon In Educatıon and Psychology-Epod, 5(2), 26-42.
  • JÖRESKOG, K. G., & SÖRBOM, D. (1993). LISREL 8: Structural Equation Modeling with the SIMPLIS Command Language. Scientific Software International.
  • KAHN, J. H. (2006). Factor Analysis in Counseling Psychology Research, Training, and Practice: Principles, Advances, and Applications. The Counseling Psychologist, 34(5), 684-718.
  • KAHNEMAN, D., & TVERSKY, A. (1979). Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 363-391.
  • KAHNEMAN, D., KNETSCH, J. L., & THALER, R. H. (1991). Anomalies: The Endowment effect, Loss Aversion, and Status Quo Bias. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 5(1), 193-206.
  • KAN, K. (2007). Residential Mobility and Social Capital. Journal of Urban Economics, 61(3), 436-457.
  • KATZ, E., & STARK, O. (1986). Labor Migration and Risk Aversion in Less Developed Countries. Journal of Labor Economics, 4(1), 134-149.
  • LEECH, N. L., BARRETT, K. C., MORGAN, G. A., CLAY, J. N., & QUICK, D. (2005). SPSS for Intermediate Statistics: Use and Interpretation. (N. L. Mahwah, Dü.)
  • LEWIS, W. A. (1954). Economic Development With Unlimited Supplies of Labour. The Manchester School, 22(2), 139-191.
  • LOMAX, R. G., & SCHUMACKER, R. E. (2004). A Beginner's Guide To Structural Equation Modeling. Psychology Press.
  • MABOGUNJE, A. L. (1970). Systems Approach to A Theory of Rural‐Urban Migration. Geographical Analysis, 2(1), 1-18.
  • MASSEY, D. S. (1990). Social Structure, Household Strategies, and the Cumulative Causation of Migration. Population Index, 3-26.
  • MASSEY, D. S., ARANGO, J., HUGO, G., KOUAOUCI, A., & PELLEGRINO, A. (1999). Worlds in Motion: Understanding International Migration at the End of the Millennium: Understanding International Migration at the End of the Millennium. Clarendon Press.
  • MASSEY, D. S., ARANGO, J., HUGO, G., KOUAOUCI, A., PELLEGRİNO, A., & TAYLOR, J. E. (1993). Theories of International Migration: A Review and Appraisal. Population and Development Review, 19(3), 431-466.
  • MASSEY, D. S., ARANGO, J., HUGO, G., KOUAOUCİ, A., PELLEGRINO, A., & TAYLOR, J. E. (1993). Theories of International Migration: A Review and Appraisal. Population and Development Review, 19(3), 431-466.
  • MERCER, J. (2005). Prospect theory and political science. Annu. Rev. Polit. Sci., 8, 1-21.
  • MİCHAELIDES, M. (2011). The effect of local ties, wages, and housing costs on migration decisions. The Journal of Socio-Economics, 40(2), 132-140.
  • NAROTZKY, S., & BESNIER, N. (2014). Crisis, Value, and Hope: Rethinking The Economy: An Introduction to Supplement 9. Current Anthropology, 55(9), 4-16.
  • OEHMKE, J. F., TSUKAMOTO, S., & POST, L. A. (2007). Can Health Care Services Attract Retirees and Contribute to The Economic Sustainability of Rural Places? Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, 36(1), 95-106.
  • PALLONI, A., MASSEY, D. S., CEBALLOS, M., ESPINOSA, K., & SPITTEL, M. (2001). Social Capital And İnternational Migration: A Test Using Information on Family Networks. American Journal of Sociology, 106(5), 1262-1298.
  • PEDHAZUR, E. J. (1997). Multiple Regression in Behavioral Research: Explanation and Prediction. Inc: New York, NY.: Thompson Learning.
  • PETERSEN, W. (1958). A general typology of migration. American Sociological Review, 23(3), 256-266.
  • PITUCH, K. A., & STEVENS, J. P. (2009). Applied Multivariate Statistics For The Social Sciences. 21. New York and London: Routledge.
  • RANIS, G., & FEI, J. C. (1961). A Theory of Economic Development. The American economic review, 533-565.
  • RAYKOV, T., & MARCOULIDES, G. A. (2006). On Multilevel Model Reliability Estimation From The Perspective of Structural Equation Modeling. Structural Equation Modeling, 13(1), 130-141.
  • SAHOTA, G. S. (1968). An Economic Analysis of Internal Migration in Brazil. Journal of political economy, 66(2), 218-245.
  • SIMON, H. A. (1983). Reason in Human Affairs. Stanford University Press.
  • SJAASTAD, L. A. (1962). The Costs and Returns of Human Migration. Journal of political Economy, 70(5,Part 2), 80-93.
  • SPILIMBERGO, A., & UBEDA, L. (2004). Family Attachment And The Decision to Move By Race. Journal of Urban Economics, 55(3). 478-497
  • TABACHNICK, B. G., FIDELL, L. S., & ULLMAN, J. B. (2007). Using Multivariate Statistics (Cilt Vol.5). Boston: MA: Pearson.
  • THALER, R. (1980). Toward A Positive Theory of Consumer Choice. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 1(1), 39-60.
  • TODARO, M. P. (1969). A Model of Labor Migration And Urban Unemployment in Less Developed Countries. The American Economic review, 59(1), 138-148.
  • TVERSKY, A., & KAHNEMAN, D. (1991). Loss Aversion in Riskless Choice: A Reference-Dependent Model. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106(4), 1039-1061.
  • WESTON, R., & Gore Jr, P. A. (2006). A Brief Guide To Structural Equation Modeling. The Counseling Psychologist, 34(5), 719-751.
  • YAMANE, T. (1967). Statistics: An ıntroductory Analysis. New York: Harper and Row.
  • ZAFER, A. (2016). The Concept of "Culture" As A Key For Mıgratıon Studıes. University Of Uludag / Journal of Social Sciences, Journal of Social Sciences, 19(30).

THE IMPACT OF ECONOMIC EXPECTATION, SOCIAL CAPITAL AND HOPE ON MIGRATION REQUEST AND ACTION

Yıl 2021, , 47 - 58, 11.01.2021
https://doi.org/10.15637/jlecon.8.1.05

Öz

In this study, the factors affecting the request and action of migration are examined with empirical method within the scope of neoclassical economic theories and behavioral economic thought. A survey of a selected sample was analyzed with structural equation modeling. There was a linear relationship between migration and economic expectation, social capital and hope. It was found that the Economic Expectation Variable had a very strong negative effect on individuals’ decision to immigrate and desire to migrate (γ = -0.99; t = -17.87). Hope variable has a very strong negative effect on individuals’ migration decision and desire to migrate (γ = -0.96; t = -13.66). The Social Capital Secret Variable has a negatively moderate effect on individuals’ decision to immigrate and desire to migrate (γ = -0.48; t = -8.19). It was seen that economic and political conjuncture was effective in the decision of migration of individuals.

Kaynakça

  • ADLER, P. S., & KWON, S. W. (2002). Social Capital: Prospects For a New Concept. Academy of, 27(1), 17-40.
  • ALESİNA, A., & GIULIANO, P. (2011). Family Ties and Political Participation. Journal of the European Economic Association, 9(5), 817-839.
  • ALESİNA, A., ALGAN, Y., CAHUC, P., & GIULIANO, P. (2015). Family Values and The Regulation of Labor. Journal of the European Economic Association, 13(4), 599-630.
  • ANONYMOUS. (2018a, Novenber 30). Provincial / District Centers and Town / Village Population, General Population Censuses by Years and Gender ADNKS,. tuik: http://www.tuik.gov.tr/UstMenu.do?metod=temelist adresinden alındı
  • ANONYMOUS. (2019b, December 15). Labor Force Statistics, August 2019 Newsletter. tuik: http://www.tuik.gov.tr/PreTablo.do?alt_id=1007 adresinden alındı
  • ANONYMOUS. (2019c, December 12). Agricultural Holdings Labour Wage Structure. tuik: http://www.tuik.gov.tr/UstMenu.do?metod=temelist. adresinden alındı
  • ANONYMOUS. (2019d, December 15). Minimum wage. tuik: https://www.ailevecalisma.gov.tr/istatistikler/calisma-hayati-istatistikleri/asgari-ucret/asgari-ucret-2019/ adresinden alındı
  • ANONYMOUS. (2019e, December 18). Migration, Net Migration and Net Migration Rate of Provinces, General Population Censuses - ABPRS. tuik: http://www.tuik.gov.tr/UstMenu.do?metod=temelist adresinden alındı
  • BALCIOĞLU, I. (2007). Migration in Social and Psychological Terms. Bilge Publishing.
  • BENTLER, P. M., & YUAN, K. H. (1999). Structural Equation Modeling With Small Samples: Test Statistics. Multivariate Behavioral Research, 34(2), 181-197.
  • BİÇKI, D. (2011). Buıldıng The Future in Cıty: Mıgratıon Trends in Canakkale Rural. Süleyman Demirel University Journal of the Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 16(3), 149-169.
  • BOURDIEU, P. (1989). Social Space and Symbolic Power. Sociological Theory,, 7(1), 14-25.
  • BOURDIEU, P., & WACQUANT, L. J. (1992). An invitation to Reflexive Sociology. Chicago: University of Chicago press.
  • CHEUNG, G. W., & RENSVOLD, R. B. (2002). Evaluating Goodness-of-fit Indexes for Testing Measurement invariance. Structural Equation Modeling, 9(2), 233-255.
  • COLEMAN, J. S. (1988). Social Capital in the Creation of Human Capital. American Journal of Sociology (94), 95-120.
  • CRAWFORD, T. J. (1973). Beliefs About Birth Control: A Consistency Theory Analysis. Representative Research in Social Psychology, 4(1), 53.
  • CZAIKA, M. (2015). Migration and Economic Prospects. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 41(1), 58-82.
  • DAVID, Q. J. (2010). Local Social Capital and Geographical Mobility. Journal of Urban Economics, 68(2), 191-204.
  • DELLER, S., TSUNG-HSİU, T., MARCOUILLER, D.W., ENGLISH, D.B.K. (2001). The Role of Amenities and Quality of Life in Rural Economic Growth. Am. J. Agric. Econ, 352.
  • ESSES, V. M., HODSON, G., & DOVIDIO, J. F. (2003). Public Attitudes Toward Immigrants and Immigration: Determinants and Policy İmplications.
  • ESSES, V. M., JACKSON, L. M., & BENNETT-ABUAYYASH, C. (2010). Intergroup competition. The Sage Handbook of Prejudice, Stereotyping and Discrimination, 1, 225-240.
  • HAGEN‐ZANKER, J. (2008). Why Do People Migrate? A Review Of The Theoretical Literature. A Review Of The Theoretical Literature (January 2008). Maastrcht Graduate School of Governance Working Paper No.
  • HARRIS, J. R., & TODARO, M. P. (1970). Migration, Unemployment and Development: a two-sector analysis. The American economic review, 60(1), 126-142.
  • HERSHBERGER, S. L. (2003). The Growth of Structural Equation Modeling: 1994-2001. Structural Equation Modeling, 10(1), 35-46.
  • HOTCHKISS, J. L., & RUPASINGHA, A. (2018). Individual Social Capital and Migration. Workıng Paper Serıes, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  • HOYLE, R. (1995). Structural Equation Modeling: Concepts, İssues, and Applications. I. R. (Ed.) içinde, The structural Equation Modeling Approach. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.: Structural Equation Modeling: Concepts, Issues and Applications.
  • ILHAN, M., & CETİN, B. (2014). Comparing the analysis Results Of The Structural Equation Models (SEM) Conducted Using
  • LISREL and AMOS. Journal Of Measurement and Evaluatıon In Educatıon and Psychology-Epod, 5(2), 26-42.
  • JÖRESKOG, K. G., & SÖRBOM, D. (1993). LISREL 8: Structural Equation Modeling with the SIMPLIS Command Language. Scientific Software International.
  • KAHN, J. H. (2006). Factor Analysis in Counseling Psychology Research, Training, and Practice: Principles, Advances, and Applications. The Counseling Psychologist, 34(5), 684-718.
  • KAHNEMAN, D., & TVERSKY, A. (1979). Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 363-391.
  • KAHNEMAN, D., KNETSCH, J. L., & THALER, R. H. (1991). Anomalies: The Endowment effect, Loss Aversion, and Status Quo Bias. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 5(1), 193-206.
  • KAN, K. (2007). Residential Mobility and Social Capital. Journal of Urban Economics, 61(3), 436-457.
  • KATZ, E., & STARK, O. (1986). Labor Migration and Risk Aversion in Less Developed Countries. Journal of Labor Economics, 4(1), 134-149.
  • LEECH, N. L., BARRETT, K. C., MORGAN, G. A., CLAY, J. N., & QUICK, D. (2005). SPSS for Intermediate Statistics: Use and Interpretation. (N. L. Mahwah, Dü.)
  • LEWIS, W. A. (1954). Economic Development With Unlimited Supplies of Labour. The Manchester School, 22(2), 139-191.
  • LOMAX, R. G., & SCHUMACKER, R. E. (2004). A Beginner's Guide To Structural Equation Modeling. Psychology Press.
  • MABOGUNJE, A. L. (1970). Systems Approach to A Theory of Rural‐Urban Migration. Geographical Analysis, 2(1), 1-18.
  • MASSEY, D. S. (1990). Social Structure, Household Strategies, and the Cumulative Causation of Migration. Population Index, 3-26.
  • MASSEY, D. S., ARANGO, J., HUGO, G., KOUAOUCI, A., & PELLEGRINO, A. (1999). Worlds in Motion: Understanding International Migration at the End of the Millennium: Understanding International Migration at the End of the Millennium. Clarendon Press.
  • MASSEY, D. S., ARANGO, J., HUGO, G., KOUAOUCI, A., PELLEGRİNO, A., & TAYLOR, J. E. (1993). Theories of International Migration: A Review and Appraisal. Population and Development Review, 19(3), 431-466.
  • MASSEY, D. S., ARANGO, J., HUGO, G., KOUAOUCİ, A., PELLEGRINO, A., & TAYLOR, J. E. (1993). Theories of International Migration: A Review and Appraisal. Population and Development Review, 19(3), 431-466.
  • MERCER, J. (2005). Prospect theory and political science. Annu. Rev. Polit. Sci., 8, 1-21.
  • MİCHAELIDES, M. (2011). The effect of local ties, wages, and housing costs on migration decisions. The Journal of Socio-Economics, 40(2), 132-140.
  • NAROTZKY, S., & BESNIER, N. (2014). Crisis, Value, and Hope: Rethinking The Economy: An Introduction to Supplement 9. Current Anthropology, 55(9), 4-16.
  • OEHMKE, J. F., TSUKAMOTO, S., & POST, L. A. (2007). Can Health Care Services Attract Retirees and Contribute to The Economic Sustainability of Rural Places? Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, 36(1), 95-106.
  • PALLONI, A., MASSEY, D. S., CEBALLOS, M., ESPINOSA, K., & SPITTEL, M. (2001). Social Capital And İnternational Migration: A Test Using Information on Family Networks. American Journal of Sociology, 106(5), 1262-1298.
  • PEDHAZUR, E. J. (1997). Multiple Regression in Behavioral Research: Explanation and Prediction. Inc: New York, NY.: Thompson Learning.
  • PETERSEN, W. (1958). A general typology of migration. American Sociological Review, 23(3), 256-266.
  • PITUCH, K. A., & STEVENS, J. P. (2009). Applied Multivariate Statistics For The Social Sciences. 21. New York and London: Routledge.
  • RANIS, G., & FEI, J. C. (1961). A Theory of Economic Development. The American economic review, 533-565.
  • RAYKOV, T., & MARCOULIDES, G. A. (2006). On Multilevel Model Reliability Estimation From The Perspective of Structural Equation Modeling. Structural Equation Modeling, 13(1), 130-141.
  • SAHOTA, G. S. (1968). An Economic Analysis of Internal Migration in Brazil. Journal of political economy, 66(2), 218-245.
  • SIMON, H. A. (1983). Reason in Human Affairs. Stanford University Press.
  • SJAASTAD, L. A. (1962). The Costs and Returns of Human Migration. Journal of political Economy, 70(5,Part 2), 80-93.
  • SPILIMBERGO, A., & UBEDA, L. (2004). Family Attachment And The Decision to Move By Race. Journal of Urban Economics, 55(3). 478-497
  • TABACHNICK, B. G., FIDELL, L. S., & ULLMAN, J. B. (2007). Using Multivariate Statistics (Cilt Vol.5). Boston: MA: Pearson.
  • THALER, R. (1980). Toward A Positive Theory of Consumer Choice. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 1(1), 39-60.
  • TODARO, M. P. (1969). A Model of Labor Migration And Urban Unemployment in Less Developed Countries. The American Economic review, 59(1), 138-148.
  • TVERSKY, A., & KAHNEMAN, D. (1991). Loss Aversion in Riskless Choice: A Reference-Dependent Model. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106(4), 1039-1061.
  • WESTON, R., & Gore Jr, P. A. (2006). A Brief Guide To Structural Equation Modeling. The Counseling Psychologist, 34(5), 719-751.
  • YAMANE, T. (1967). Statistics: An ıntroductory Analysis. New York: Harper and Row.
  • ZAFER, A. (2016). The Concept of "Culture" As A Key For Mıgratıon Studıes. University Of Uludag / Journal of Social Sciences, Journal of Social Sciences, 19(30).
Toplam 63 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Şerafettin Keleş 0000-0002-5147-0825

Yayımlanma Tarihi 11 Ocak 2021
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2021

Kaynak Göster

APA Keleş, Ş. (2021). THE IMPACT OF ECONOMIC EXPECTATION, SOCIAL CAPITAL AND HOPE ON MIGRATION REQUEST AND ACTION. Journal of Life Economics, 8(1), 47-58. https://doi.org/10.15637/jlecon.8.1.05