POLITICAL TAX CYCLES: POLITICAL EFFECTS ON TAX REVENUES AND TAX BURDEN IN TURKEY (1945-2014)

Yıl 2017, Cilt: 4 Sayı: 2, 103 - 124, 30.04.2017

İbrahim Demir , Turgay Berksoy

Öz

This
study analyzes the effects of general elections on tax revenues and tax burden
in Turkey. Approaches that have ignored the political decision mechanism,
behaviors of political actors, and institutional structure have been
insufficient in explaining the variation in taxation variables. In this
context, this study asserts that politicians manipulate taxation in order to
get re-elected. Incorporating the institutional structure into the analysis,
the study develops hypotheses that can help better understand variations in
fiscal and economic variables. The study tests its main hypothesis through a
vector error correction (VEC) estimation on data that cover the period of
1945-2014. Having controlled for relevant factors, the study finds no
significant relationship between 18 election years, tax revenues, and tax
burden in Turkey. It can be argued that one of the main reasons for this
finding is political instability that has been observed in the Turkish
political system until the early 2000s. Despite having 18 elections, Turkey had
46 governmental changes between 1945 and 2014. Under such a politically
unstable environment, politicians might not have stayed long enough in the
office to establish their network and influence.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Election Economics, Political Decision Mechanism, Tax Burden, Behaviors Of Political Actors, Corporate Looseness, Political Tax Cycles

POLİTİK VERGİ ÇEVRİMLERİ: TÜRKİYE’DE VERGİ GELİRLERİ VE VERGİ YÜKÜ ÜZERİNDE POLİTİK ETKİLER (1945-2014)

Öz

            Bu
çalışma, Türkiye’de seçimlerin vergileme üzerindeki etkilerini analiz
etmektedir. Vergi değişkenlerindeki değişimlerin açıklanmasında, siyasal karar
alma mekanizmasının işleyişini, bu mekanizmada rol alan aktörlerin
davranışlarını ve kurumsal yapının bu mekanizmanın hem işleyişi hem de
sonuçları üzerindeki etkilerini ihmal eden yaklaşımlar yetersiz kalmaktadır. Bu
bağlamda, bu çalışmanın temel hipotezi politikacıların yeniden-seçilme
güdüsüyle vergilemeyi manipüle edebileceğidir. Çalışmada, politikacının seçim
kazanma ihtimalini maksimize edecek vergileme modellenmekte, kurumsal faktörler
de analize dahil ederek ekonomik-mali olguların açıklanmasına yardımcı olacak
varsayımlar geliştirilmektedir. 1945-2014 yıllarını kapsayan ampirik analizde
vektör hata düzeltme yöntemi (VEC) kullanılmış ve seçim yılları ile vergi
gelirleri arasında anlamlı bir ilişki tespit edilememiştir. Bunun en önemli nedenlerinden
biri, çalışma döneminin büyük 
çoğunluğunda gözlemlenen siyasal istikrarsızlık olabilir. Çalışma dönemine
rastlayan yıllarda 18 seçim yapılmış olmasına rağmen 46 hükümet değişikliği
gerçekleşmiştir. Bu nedenle, iktidardaki politikacılar vergileme değişkenlerini
etkileyebilecek güç ve sürekliliği elde edememiş olabilirler

Anahtar Kelimeler

Seçim ekonomisi, siyasal karar alma mekanizması, vergi yükü, politikacı davranışı, kurumsal gevşeklik, politik vergi çevrimleri

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