ASSESSMENT OF THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIDDLE-INCOME TRAP IN TURKEY
Yıl 2020,
Cilt: 7 Sayı: 4, 331 - 348, 31.10.2020
Ali Cem Öztürk
,
Burcu Yavuz Tiftikçigil
Öz
Turkey has been under the middle-income country category according to the income category classification of the World Bank. Turkey promoted to high-middle-income group in 2005 after spending more than 50 years in lower-middle-income group. The purpose of this study is to identify the presence of middle-income trap in Turkey. The study brings together the most recent theoretical studies from different perspectives with respect to the presence of MIT in Turkey along with Robertson and Ye approach in the empirical phase. Within the context of this study, structural break unit root test using current data obtained through the Atlas method is applied in order to evaluate Turkey’s middle-income trap status. The GNI per capita Atlas Method (current US $) data of the World Bank for the years 1967-2016 are used in the study. The empirical analysis briefly showed that Turkey is not in the MIT.
Kaynakça
- ADA, A.A., and ACAROĞLU, H., (2016), An Empirical Remark About Middle Income Trap Problem for Turkey, Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, 4(3),81-95.
- ALÇIN, S., and GÜNER, B., (2015), Orta Gelir Tuzağı: Türkiye Üzerine bir Değerlendirme, Marmara Üniversitesi İ.İ.B. Dergisi, XXXVII (1),27-45.
- ARSLANHAN, S., and KURTSAL, Y., (2010), Güney Kore İnovasyondaki Başarısını Nelere Borçlu? Türkiye için Çıkarımlar, TEPAV Politika Notu, September 2010.
- BAHÇEKAPILI, C., (2015), An Unhappy Stop on the Way to Development: The Middle Income Trap in the Turkish Economy, IRC-2015, International Organization for Research and Development – IORD, Istanbul-Turkey, February 2015.
- BOZKURT, E., BEDİR, S., ÖZDEMİR, D., and ÇAKMAK, E., (Temmuz-Aralık,2014), Orta Gelir Tuzağı ve Türkiye Örneği, Maliye Dergisi,167,22-39.
- CARRION-I SILVESTRE, L. J., KIM, D., and PERRON, P., (2009), Gls-Based Unit Root with Multiple Structural Breaks Under Both the Null and the Alternative Hypotheses, Econometric Theory,22, 1754-1792.
- CIMOLI, M., PORCILE, G., and ROVIRA, S., (2010), Structural Change and Bop Constraint: Why Did Latin America fail to Convergence, Cambridge Journal of Economics,34,389-411.
- ÇAŞKURLU, E., and ARSLAN, B. C., (Temmuz-Aralık,2014), Orta Gelir Tuzağından Çıkışa Odaklanma: Ürün Tuzağı (Ürün Boşluğu) ve Demiryolu Taşımacılık Sektörü, Maliye Dergisi, 167,71-92.
- EĞİLMEZ, M., (2012), Orta Gelir Tuzağı ve Türkiye, Mahfi Eğilmez Kendime Yazılar Blog, http://www.mahfiegilmez.com/2012/12/orta-gelir-tuzag-ve-turkiye.html [Accessed:4 December 2016].
- EĞİLMEZ, M., (2017), Orta Gelir Tuzağında Son Durum, Mahfi Eğilmez Kendime Yazılar Blog, http://www.mahfiegilmez.com/2017/05/orta-gelir-tuzagnda-son-durum.html [Accessed:20 June 2018].
- EGAWA, A., (2013), Will Income Inequality Cause a Middle–Income Trap in Asia?, Bruegel Working Paper,2013-06.
EICHENGREEN, B., PARK, D., and SHIN, K., (2012), When Fast-Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implacations for China, Asian Economic Papers,11(1),42-87.
- EICHENGREEN, B., PARK, D., and SHIN, K., (2013), Growth Slowdowns Redux: New Evidence on the Middle–Income Trap, Nber Working Paper Series, Working Paper 18673.
- ENER, M., and KARANFİL, M., (2015), Türkiye Ekonomisinde Tasarruf Açığının Orta Gelir Tuzağı Üzerine Etkisi, Eskişehir Osman Gazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 10(2),31-46.
- ESENYEL, N.M., (2017), Türkiye’de Enerji Yakınsama Hipotezinin Sınanması: Yapısal Kırılmalı Birim Kök Analizi, Social Sciences Research Journal, 6(3),42-52.
- FELIPE, J., ABDON, A., and KUMAR, U., (2012), Tracking the Middle-Income Trap: What Is It, Who Is In It, and Why? Levy Economics Institute of Bard College Working Paper, No. 715,1-59.
- FLECHTNER, S., and PANNTHER, S., (2013) cited in ADA, A.A., and ACAROĞLU. H., (2016), An Empirical Remark About Middle Income Trap Problem for Turkey. Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, 4(3),p.83.
- GILL, I., and KHARAS, H., (2007), An East Asian Renaissance: Ideas for Economic Growth, The WorldBank Publications, No:6798.
- GÖÇER, İ., and PEKER, O., (2014), Yabancı Doğrudan Yatırımların İstihdam Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye, Çin ve Hindistan Örneğinde Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Eşbütünleşme Analizi, Yönetim ve Ekonomi, 21(1),107-123.
- GUJARATI, D. N., (2001), Basic Econometrics, Istanbul, Literatür Publishing.
GÜRSEL, S., BAKIŞ, O., and KÖKSAL, S., (2016), Orta Gelir Tuzağı Sorunu Hassasiyetini Koruyor, Betam Araştırma Notu,16/198.
- HAUSMAN, R., HWANG, J., and RODRIK, D., (2007), What You Export Matters, Journal of Economic Growth,12,1-25.
- ISLAM, N.S., (2015), Will Inequality Lead China to the Middle Income Trap? Desa Working Paper, No.142.
- JANKOWSKA, A., NAGENGAST, A., and PEREA, J. R., (2012), The Product Space and the Middle-Income Trap: Comparing Asian and Latin American Experiences, OECD Development Centre Working Paper, No.311.
- KANCHOOCHAT, V., and INTARAKUMNERD, P., (2014), Tigers Trapped: Tracing the Middle-Income Trap Through East and Southeast Asian Experience, Berlin Working Papers on Money, Finance, Trade and Development, No:4.
- KAYA, Z., TOKUCU, E., AYKIRI, M., and DURMUŞ, C., (2015). Türkiye Ekonomisinde Orta Gelir Tuzağı ve Ödemeler Bilançosu Kısıtı [Middle Income Trap and Balance of Payments Constraint in the Turkish Economy]. International Conference on Eurasian Economies 2015, Kazan-Russia, 2015, Session5E:830-840.Available at: https://www.avekon.org/papers/1260.pdf(Accessed:10.11.2018).
- KHARAS, H., and KOHLI, H., (2011), What is the Middle Income Trap, Why Do Countries Fall Into It, and How Can It be Avoided? Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies,3(3),281-289.
- KOÇAK, E., and BULUT, Ü., (Temmuz-Aralık,2014), Orta Gelir Tuzağı: Teorik Çerçeve, Ampirik Yaklaşımlar ve Türkiye Üzerine Ekonometrik bir Uygulama, Maliye Dergisi,167,1-21.
- LEE, J., and STRAZICICH, M., (2003) Minimum LM Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks, Review of Economic and Statistics,85(4),1082-1089.
- LIN, J. Y., and TREICHEL, V., (2012), Learning from China’s Rise to Escape the Middle-Income Trap.A New Structural Economics Approach to Latin America, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper ,6165.
- MERT, M., (Temmuz-Aralık,2014), Türkiye’de ve Dünyada Orta Gelir Tuzağının Talep Yönlü Boyutuna İlişkin Bir Tartışma, Maliye Dergisi,167,93-115.
- NİŞANCI,M.,GERNİ,M.,TÜRKMEN,A.,and EMSEN,Ö.S.,(2015).Türkiye Ekonomisinin Orta Gelir Tuzağına Düşüp Düşmediğine Dair Tartışma:Kur Değerlendirmesi Çerçevesinde Bir Bakış [A Discussion on Whether Turkish Economy is in Middle Income Trap or Not:A Perspective on Framework of the Exchange Rates Appreciation].International Conference On Eurasian Economies 2015,Session 3B: 232-242.Available at: https://docplayer.biz.tr/108081173-232-international-conference-on-eurasian-economies-2015.html(10.11.2018).
- OHNO, K., (2009), Avoiding the Middle Income Trap: Renovating Industrial Policy Formulation in Vietnam, Asean Economic Bulletin, 26(1),25-43.
- ÖZ, S., (Ağustos,2012), Orta Gelir Tuzağı, Eaf Ekonomik Araştırma Forumu Politika Notu,12-06.
- PAUS, E., (2012), Confronting the Middle Income Trap: Insights from Small Latecomers, St Comp Int Dev., 47,115-138.
PAUS, E., (2014), Latin America and Middle–Income Trap. United Nations publication, Financing for Development Series, No.250.
- PERRON, P., (1989), The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis, Econometrica, 57,1361-1401.
- ROBERTSON, P. E., and YE, L., (2013), On the Existence of a Middle-Income Trap, University of Western Australia Economics Discussion Paper 13.12. February 2013,7.
- SAK, G., (2012). Çok alametlerbelirdi: Türkiye sanayisizleşiyor, TEPAV. Available at: http://www.tepav.org.tr/upload/files/haber/13572133038.Guven_Sak___Cok_Alametler_Belirdi_Turkiye_Sanayisizlesiyor.pdf [Accessed:26.11.2014].
- SCHMIDT, P., and PHILLIPS,P.C.B.,(1992), LM Tests for a Unit Root in the Presence of Deterministic Trends, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 54, issue 3,257-87.
- TİFTİKÇİGİL, B. Y., GÜRİŞ, B., and YAŞGÜL, S. Y., (2018), Does Middle Income Trap Exist? Evidence from Emerging Economies: E7 Countries 1969-2015, Revista Galega de Economia, 27(1), 145-162.
- TOPRAK, M., (2012), Özel Sektörün Rekabet Yetkinliği ve Gelecek Perspektifi, İktisadi Araştırmalar Vakfı ,50. Yılda Türkiye Ekonomisinin Dönüşümü: Özel Teşebbüsün Dinamiği Semineri, Istanbul-Turkey, 28 November 2012.
- WOO, W.T., (2012), China Meets the Middle Income Trap: the Large Potholes in the Road to Catching-up, Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Vol.10, No.4,313-336.
- YALÇINKAYA, Ö., and AYDIN, İ. H., (2017), Orta Gelir Tuzağının Belirlenmesi: Teorik Çerçeve ve Türkiye’nin Konumu Üzerine Ekonometrik bir Uygulama (1950-2016, Girişimcilik ve Kalkınma Dergisi,12(1),23-35.
- YAŞAR, E., and GEZER, A. M., (Temmuz-Aralık,2014), Türkiye’nin Orta Gelir Tuzağına Yakalanma Riski ve bu Riskten Kurtulma Önerileri, Maliye Dergisi,167,126-148.
- YELDAN, E., TAŞÇI, K., VOYDODA, E., and ÖZSAN, E. M., (2012), Turkey on Her Way Out of Middle Income Growth Trap, Turkish Enterprise and Business Confederation, Volume1: Which Turkey? Macro and Regional Analysis, İstanbul-Turkey, December 2012.
- ZENG, J., and FANG, Y., (2014), Between Poverty and Prosperity: China’s Dependent Development and the Middle-Income Trap, Third World Quarterly,35(6),1014-1031.
- ZIVOT, E., and ANDREWS, K. W. D., (1992), Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10(3),251-70.
ASSESSMENT OF THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIDDLE-INCOME TRAP IN TURKEY
Yıl 2020,
Cilt: 7 Sayı: 4, 331 - 348, 31.10.2020
Ali Cem Öztürk
,
Burcu Yavuz Tiftikçigil
Öz
Turkey has been under the middle-income country category according to the income category classification of the World Bank. Turkey promoted to high-middle-income group in 2005 after spending more than 50 years in lower-middle-income group. The purpose of this study is to identify the presence of middle-income trap in Turkey. The study brings together the most recent theoretical studies from different perspectives with respect to the presence of MIT in Turkey along with Robertson and Ye approach in the empirical phase. Within the context of this study, structural break unit root test using current data obtained through the Atlas method is applied in order to evaluate Turkey’s middle-income trap status. The GNI per capita Atlas Method (current US $) data of the World Bank for the years 1967-2016 are used in the study. The empirical analysis briefly showed that Turkey is not in the MIT.
Kaynakça
- ADA, A.A., and ACAROĞLU, H., (2016), An Empirical Remark About Middle Income Trap Problem for Turkey, Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, 4(3),81-95.
- ALÇIN, S., and GÜNER, B., (2015), Orta Gelir Tuzağı: Türkiye Üzerine bir Değerlendirme, Marmara Üniversitesi İ.İ.B. Dergisi, XXXVII (1),27-45.
- ARSLANHAN, S., and KURTSAL, Y., (2010), Güney Kore İnovasyondaki Başarısını Nelere Borçlu? Türkiye için Çıkarımlar, TEPAV Politika Notu, September 2010.
- BAHÇEKAPILI, C., (2015), An Unhappy Stop on the Way to Development: The Middle Income Trap in the Turkish Economy, IRC-2015, International Organization for Research and Development – IORD, Istanbul-Turkey, February 2015.
- BOZKURT, E., BEDİR, S., ÖZDEMİR, D., and ÇAKMAK, E., (Temmuz-Aralık,2014), Orta Gelir Tuzağı ve Türkiye Örneği, Maliye Dergisi,167,22-39.
- CARRION-I SILVESTRE, L. J., KIM, D., and PERRON, P., (2009), Gls-Based Unit Root with Multiple Structural Breaks Under Both the Null and the Alternative Hypotheses, Econometric Theory,22, 1754-1792.
- CIMOLI, M., PORCILE, G., and ROVIRA, S., (2010), Structural Change and Bop Constraint: Why Did Latin America fail to Convergence, Cambridge Journal of Economics,34,389-411.
- ÇAŞKURLU, E., and ARSLAN, B. C., (Temmuz-Aralık,2014), Orta Gelir Tuzağından Çıkışa Odaklanma: Ürün Tuzağı (Ürün Boşluğu) ve Demiryolu Taşımacılık Sektörü, Maliye Dergisi, 167,71-92.
- EĞİLMEZ, M., (2012), Orta Gelir Tuzağı ve Türkiye, Mahfi Eğilmez Kendime Yazılar Blog, http://www.mahfiegilmez.com/2012/12/orta-gelir-tuzag-ve-turkiye.html [Accessed:4 December 2016].
- EĞİLMEZ, M., (2017), Orta Gelir Tuzağında Son Durum, Mahfi Eğilmez Kendime Yazılar Blog, http://www.mahfiegilmez.com/2017/05/orta-gelir-tuzagnda-son-durum.html [Accessed:20 June 2018].
- EGAWA, A., (2013), Will Income Inequality Cause a Middle–Income Trap in Asia?, Bruegel Working Paper,2013-06.
EICHENGREEN, B., PARK, D., and SHIN, K., (2012), When Fast-Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implacations for China, Asian Economic Papers,11(1),42-87.
- EICHENGREEN, B., PARK, D., and SHIN, K., (2013), Growth Slowdowns Redux: New Evidence on the Middle–Income Trap, Nber Working Paper Series, Working Paper 18673.
- ENER, M., and KARANFİL, M., (2015), Türkiye Ekonomisinde Tasarruf Açığının Orta Gelir Tuzağı Üzerine Etkisi, Eskişehir Osman Gazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 10(2),31-46.
- ESENYEL, N.M., (2017), Türkiye’de Enerji Yakınsama Hipotezinin Sınanması: Yapısal Kırılmalı Birim Kök Analizi, Social Sciences Research Journal, 6(3),42-52.
- FELIPE, J., ABDON, A., and KUMAR, U., (2012), Tracking the Middle-Income Trap: What Is It, Who Is In It, and Why? Levy Economics Institute of Bard College Working Paper, No. 715,1-59.
- FLECHTNER, S., and PANNTHER, S., (2013) cited in ADA, A.A., and ACAROĞLU. H., (2016), An Empirical Remark About Middle Income Trap Problem for Turkey. Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, 4(3),p.83.
- GILL, I., and KHARAS, H., (2007), An East Asian Renaissance: Ideas for Economic Growth, The WorldBank Publications, No:6798.
- GÖÇER, İ., and PEKER, O., (2014), Yabancı Doğrudan Yatırımların İstihdam Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye, Çin ve Hindistan Örneğinde Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Eşbütünleşme Analizi, Yönetim ve Ekonomi, 21(1),107-123.
- GUJARATI, D. N., (2001), Basic Econometrics, Istanbul, Literatür Publishing.
GÜRSEL, S., BAKIŞ, O., and KÖKSAL, S., (2016), Orta Gelir Tuzağı Sorunu Hassasiyetini Koruyor, Betam Araştırma Notu,16/198.
- HAUSMAN, R., HWANG, J., and RODRIK, D., (2007), What You Export Matters, Journal of Economic Growth,12,1-25.
- ISLAM, N.S., (2015), Will Inequality Lead China to the Middle Income Trap? Desa Working Paper, No.142.
- JANKOWSKA, A., NAGENGAST, A., and PEREA, J. R., (2012), The Product Space and the Middle-Income Trap: Comparing Asian and Latin American Experiences, OECD Development Centre Working Paper, No.311.
- KANCHOOCHAT, V., and INTARAKUMNERD, P., (2014), Tigers Trapped: Tracing the Middle-Income Trap Through East and Southeast Asian Experience, Berlin Working Papers on Money, Finance, Trade and Development, No:4.
- KAYA, Z., TOKUCU, E., AYKIRI, M., and DURMUŞ, C., (2015). Türkiye Ekonomisinde Orta Gelir Tuzağı ve Ödemeler Bilançosu Kısıtı [Middle Income Trap and Balance of Payments Constraint in the Turkish Economy]. International Conference on Eurasian Economies 2015, Kazan-Russia, 2015, Session5E:830-840.Available at: https://www.avekon.org/papers/1260.pdf(Accessed:10.11.2018).
- KHARAS, H., and KOHLI, H., (2011), What is the Middle Income Trap, Why Do Countries Fall Into It, and How Can It be Avoided? Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies,3(3),281-289.
- KOÇAK, E., and BULUT, Ü., (Temmuz-Aralık,2014), Orta Gelir Tuzağı: Teorik Çerçeve, Ampirik Yaklaşımlar ve Türkiye Üzerine Ekonometrik bir Uygulama, Maliye Dergisi,167,1-21.
- LEE, J., and STRAZICICH, M., (2003) Minimum LM Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks, Review of Economic and Statistics,85(4),1082-1089.
- LIN, J. Y., and TREICHEL, V., (2012), Learning from China’s Rise to Escape the Middle-Income Trap.A New Structural Economics Approach to Latin America, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper ,6165.
- MERT, M., (Temmuz-Aralık,2014), Türkiye’de ve Dünyada Orta Gelir Tuzağının Talep Yönlü Boyutuna İlişkin Bir Tartışma, Maliye Dergisi,167,93-115.
- NİŞANCI,M.,GERNİ,M.,TÜRKMEN,A.,and EMSEN,Ö.S.,(2015).Türkiye Ekonomisinin Orta Gelir Tuzağına Düşüp Düşmediğine Dair Tartışma:Kur Değerlendirmesi Çerçevesinde Bir Bakış [A Discussion on Whether Turkish Economy is in Middle Income Trap or Not:A Perspective on Framework of the Exchange Rates Appreciation].International Conference On Eurasian Economies 2015,Session 3B: 232-242.Available at: https://docplayer.biz.tr/108081173-232-international-conference-on-eurasian-economies-2015.html(10.11.2018).
- OHNO, K., (2009), Avoiding the Middle Income Trap: Renovating Industrial Policy Formulation in Vietnam, Asean Economic Bulletin, 26(1),25-43.
- ÖZ, S., (Ağustos,2012), Orta Gelir Tuzağı, Eaf Ekonomik Araştırma Forumu Politika Notu,12-06.
- PAUS, E., (2012), Confronting the Middle Income Trap: Insights from Small Latecomers, St Comp Int Dev., 47,115-138.
PAUS, E., (2014), Latin America and Middle–Income Trap. United Nations publication, Financing for Development Series, No.250.
- PERRON, P., (1989), The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis, Econometrica, 57,1361-1401.
- ROBERTSON, P. E., and YE, L., (2013), On the Existence of a Middle-Income Trap, University of Western Australia Economics Discussion Paper 13.12. February 2013,7.
- SAK, G., (2012). Çok alametlerbelirdi: Türkiye sanayisizleşiyor, TEPAV. Available at: http://www.tepav.org.tr/upload/files/haber/13572133038.Guven_Sak___Cok_Alametler_Belirdi_Turkiye_Sanayisizlesiyor.pdf [Accessed:26.11.2014].
- SCHMIDT, P., and PHILLIPS,P.C.B.,(1992), LM Tests for a Unit Root in the Presence of Deterministic Trends, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 54, issue 3,257-87.
- TİFTİKÇİGİL, B. Y., GÜRİŞ, B., and YAŞGÜL, S. Y., (2018), Does Middle Income Trap Exist? Evidence from Emerging Economies: E7 Countries 1969-2015, Revista Galega de Economia, 27(1), 145-162.
- TOPRAK, M., (2012), Özel Sektörün Rekabet Yetkinliği ve Gelecek Perspektifi, İktisadi Araştırmalar Vakfı ,50. Yılda Türkiye Ekonomisinin Dönüşümü: Özel Teşebbüsün Dinamiği Semineri, Istanbul-Turkey, 28 November 2012.
- WOO, W.T., (2012), China Meets the Middle Income Trap: the Large Potholes in the Road to Catching-up, Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Vol.10, No.4,313-336.
- YALÇINKAYA, Ö., and AYDIN, İ. H., (2017), Orta Gelir Tuzağının Belirlenmesi: Teorik Çerçeve ve Türkiye’nin Konumu Üzerine Ekonometrik bir Uygulama (1950-2016, Girişimcilik ve Kalkınma Dergisi,12(1),23-35.
- YAŞAR, E., and GEZER, A. M., (Temmuz-Aralık,2014), Türkiye’nin Orta Gelir Tuzağına Yakalanma Riski ve bu Riskten Kurtulma Önerileri, Maliye Dergisi,167,126-148.
- YELDAN, E., TAŞÇI, K., VOYDODA, E., and ÖZSAN, E. M., (2012), Turkey on Her Way Out of Middle Income Growth Trap, Turkish Enterprise and Business Confederation, Volume1: Which Turkey? Macro and Regional Analysis, İstanbul-Turkey, December 2012.
- ZENG, J., and FANG, Y., (2014), Between Poverty and Prosperity: China’s Dependent Development and the Middle-Income Trap, Third World Quarterly,35(6),1014-1031.
- ZIVOT, E., and ANDREWS, K. W. D., (1992), Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10(3),251-70.