Gelişmekte Olan Ekonomilerde ve Türkiye’de Sistemik Banka Krizleri: Karşılaştırmalı Ekonometrik Bir Analiz

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 1, 1 - 18, 15.01.2024

K. Batu Tunay

https://doi.org/10.55026/jobaf.1400339

Öz

Bu çalışmada, sistemik banka krizleri incelenmiş, seçilmiş üst orta gelir grubundaki gelişmekte olan ekonomiler ve Türkiye’de sistemik banka krizleri ekonometrik olarak analiz edilmiştir. 1980-2022 dönemini kapsayan yıllık verilerden oluşan iki örneklem kullanılmıştır. İlk örneklemde, Dünya Bankası sınıflandırmasında üst orta gelir grubunda yer alan ve örneklem döneminde iki veya daha fazla sistemik bankacılık krizi yaşanmış aralarında Türkiye’nin de olduğu yedi ülkenin verileri bulunmaktadır. İkinci örneklemde ise, aynı dönem için sadece Türkiye’ye dair veriler yer almaktadır. İlk örneklemdeki veriler panel probit, ikinci örneklemdeki veriler ise probit yöntemiyle analiz edilerek, sistemik banka krizleri üzerinde kredilerdeki mutlak değişimin, büyüme hızı ve enflasyonun etkileri araştırılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular hem gelişmekte olan ülkelerde hem de Türkiye’de kredilerin GSYİH’ye oranındaki mutlak değişmelerin sistemik banka krizlerini güçlü şekilde açıkladığını, bu ilişkinin Türkiye’de daha güçlü olduğunu göstermiştir. Diğer yandan, büyüme hızındaki düşüşlerin ve enflasyon oranlarındaki artışların sistemik banka krizi olasılığını güçlendirdiği de belirlenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Sistemik banka krizleri, banka kredileri, panel probit

Systemic Banking Crises in Upper Middle Income Developing Economies and Turkey: A Comparative Econometric Analysis

Öz

In this study, systemic bank crises were examined and systemic bank crises in selected upper middle income developing economies and Turkey were analyzed econometrically. Two samples covering the period 1980-2022 and consisting of annual data were used. The first sample includes data from seven countries including Turkey that are in the upper middle income group in the World Bank classification and experienced two or more systemic banking crises during the sample period. The second sample includes data for only Turkey for the same period. The data in the first sample were analyzed with the panel probit method, and the data in the second sample were analyzed with the probit method, and the effects of the absolute change in loans, growth rate and inflation on systemic bank crises were investigated. The findings showed that absolute changes in the ratio of loans to GDP strongly explain systemic banking crises in both developing countries and Turkey, and that this relationship is even stronger in Turkey. On the other hand, it has been determined that decreases in growth rates and increases in inflation rates strengthen the possibility of systemic banking crises.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Systemic banking crises, bank loans, panel probit

Kaynakça

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