The Russia-Ukraine War and Future Scenarios for European Union Enlargement Policy

Öz

The enlargement policy has historically been the European Union’s (EU) most effective mechanism for peace and stability. Founded by six countries, the EU has incorporated numerous new members with a vision of building a Europe based on shared values and economic prosperity. However, institutional, economic, and political problems following the major enlargements of 2004 and 2007 initiated a period of stagnation known as “enlargement fatigue.” During this process, the EU’s focus shifted to its own internal problems and efforts to deepen integration, as well as global issues. Therefore, the enlargement process effectively stalled with Croatia’s accession in 2013. The Russia-Ukraine war, which began in 2022, changed this picture and made enlargement a priority for the EU again from a security and geopolitical perspective. This study analyzes the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on the EU’s enlargement process. It focuses on two possible scenarios for the future of EU enlargement policy. The first scenario involves a decline in geopolitical concerns and a return to the EU’s strict conditionality approach. The second scenario involves the continuation and acceleration of current geopolitical pressures, leading to a major expansion of the EU, such as the Eastern enlargement. The study’s main argument is that, while the war provided new impetus to enlargement, this revival was a temporary geopolitical reflex rather than a permanent transformation. For the EU to experience a genuine revival in its enlargement policy its enlargement strategy must undergo structural reform and a flexible, sustainable integration model must be adopted. Otherwise, the process will either turn into a new “accession fatigue” or a new “enlargement fatigue.”

Anahtar Kelimeler

• European Union
• Enlargement
• Russia-Ukraine War
• Geopolitics
• Security

RUSYA-UKRAYNA SAVAŞI VE AVRUPA BİRLİĞİ GENİŞLEME POLİTİKASINA İLİŞKİN GELECEK SENARYOLARI

Öz

Avrupa Birliği (AB) genişleme politikası, tarihsel olarak Birliğin en etkili barış ve istikrar mekanizması olmuştur. Başlangıçta altı ülkenin girişimiyle temelleri atılan AB, ortak değerler ve ekonomik refaha dayalı bir Avrupa inşa etmek vizyonuyla çok sayıda yeni üyeyi bünyesine katmıştır. Ancak 2004 ve 2007 yıllarındaki büyük genişlemenin ardından yaşanan kurumsal, ekonomik ve siyasi sorunlar, “genişleme yorgunluğu” olarak adlandırılan bir durgunluk dönemini beraberinde getirmiştir. Bu süreçte AB’nin odağı küresel meselelerin yanısıra kendi iç sorunlarına ve derinleşme çabalarına yönelmiş ve 2013’te Hırvatistan’ın katılımının ardından genişleme süreci fiilen duraklamıştır. 2022 yılında başlayan Rusya-Ukrayna savaşı ise bu tabloyu değiştirerek genişlemeyi AB için yeniden güvenlik ve jeopolitik açıdan bir öncelik hâline gelmiştir. Bu çalışma, Rusya-Ukrayna savaşının AB genişleme süreci üzerindeki etkilerini analiz etmektedir. Çalışma AB genişleme politikasının geleceğine ilişkin iki olası senaryo üzerinde durmaktadır. Bunlardan ilki, jeopolitik kaygıların azaldığı ve AB’nin yeniden katı bir koşulluluğa dönüş yaptığı senaryodur. İkincisi ise mevcut jeopolitik baskının sürdüğü ve genişleme sürecinin hız kazanarak AB’nin yakın dönemde Doğu genişlemesi benzeri büyük bir genişleme gerçekleştirdiği senaryodur. Çalışmanın temel argümanı, savaşın genişlemeye yeni bir ivme kazandırmasına rağmen, bu canlanmanın henüz kalıcı bir dönüşümden çok geçici bir jeopolitik refleks niteliği taşıdığıdır. AB’nin genişleme politikasında gerçek bir canlanma yaşayabilmesi, genişleme stratejisinin yapısal olarak reforme edilmesine ve esnek, sürdürülebilir bir entegrasyon modelinin benimsenmesine bağlıdır. Aksi halde süreç ya yeni bir “katılım yorgunluğuna” ya da yeni bir “genişleme yorgunluğuna” evrilecektir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Avrupa Birliği
• Genişleme
• Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı
• Jeopolitik
• Güvenlik

Destekleyen Kurum

Yoktur

Teşekkür

Yoktur

Kaynakça

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