DIŞ POLİTİKA KARAR ALMA SÜREÇLERİNDE EGO-LED VE ALTER-LED SİMÜLASYONLAR

Öz

Bu çalışma, Uluslararası İlişkiler (Uİ) literatüründe yaygın biçimde kullanılan simülasyonların tek bir kategoriymiş gibi ele alınması yaklaşımını sorgulamakta ve simülasyonların işlevinin onları tasarlayan üreticiler tarafından belirlendiğini ileri sürmektedir. Makale, bu amaçla iki temel kavramsal kategori geliştirmektedir: EGO-led ve ALTER-led simülasyonlar. EGO-led simülasyonlar, devlet kurumlarının halihazırda verdiği stratejik kararların operasyonel uygulanabilirliğini test etmeyi amaçlarken; ALTER-led simülasyonlar karar verilmeden önce seçenek üreten, belirsizliği kavramsallaştıran ve problem çerçevesini şekillendiren araçlar olarak tanımlanmaktadır. Çalışma, bu kavramsal ayrımı ampirik olarak görünür kılmak için ABD’nin iki önemli kurumsal simülasyon ekolü olan Naval War College (NWC) ve RAND Corporation üzerinde karşılaştırmalı bir analiz gerçekleştirmiştir. Bulgular, NWC’nin simülasyonlarının uygulama optimizasyonuna odaklanan EGO-led niteliğini; RAND’ın ise stratejik keşif, yeni politika seçenekleri üretimi ve problem tanımlama kapasitesiyle ALTER-led simülasyonların tipik örneğini oluşturduğunu göstermektedir. Bu çalışma, simülasyonların kurumsal üretici mantığına göre sınıflandırılması gerektiğini ortaya koyarak literatürdeki önemli bir boşluğu doldurmakta; simülasyon araştırmalarını dış politika karar alma süreçleriyle bütünleştiren özgün bir kavramsal çerçeve sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Karar Alma
• Dış Politika Analizi
• Ego Düzeyi
• Alter Düzeyi.
• Simülasyonlar

EGO-LED AND ALTER-LED SIMULATIONS IN FOREIGN POLICY DECISION-MAKING

Öz

This study challenges the prevailing assumption in the International Relations (IR) literature that simulations constitute a single, uniform category, and argues instead that their function is determined by the institutional actor that designs and conducts them. To this end, the article develops two conceptual categories: EGO-led and ALTER-led simulations. EGO-led simulations are employed by state institutions to test the operational feasibility of strategic decisions that have already been made, whereas ALTER-led simulations operate prior to decision-making, generating policy options, framing uncertainty, and shaping the cognitive boundaries within which decisions are taken. To demonstrate this distinction empirically, the study conducts a comparative analysis of two of the United States’ most established simulation traditions: the Naval War College (NWC) and the RAND Corporation. The findings show that NWC simulations focus on execution optimization and reflect the core characteristics of EGO-led design, while RAND simulations exemplify ALTER-led functions by producing new strategic pathways, reframing problems, and expanding decision-makers option sets. By classifying simulations according to institutional production logic rather than technical features, this study fills a significant gap in the literature and offers an original conceptual framework that integrates simulation research with foreign policy decision-making processes.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Simulations
• Decision-Making
• Foreign Policy Analysis
• Alter Level
• Ego Level

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