İklim Belirsizlikleri Türkiye’nin Yenilenebilir ve Yenilenemez Enerji Kaynaklarını Etkiliyor Mu?

Öz

Modern dünyada artan karbon salınımı ve iklim değişikliği, çevresel ve ekonomik sorunların yanı sıra politika belirsizliklerini de artırmaktadır. Bu belirsizlikler, özellikle enerji sektörü üzerinde derin etkiler yaratmakta ve sürdürülebilir enerji politikalarının geliştirilmesini zorunlu hale getirmektedir. Bu bağlamda, İklim Politikası Belirsizlik Endeksi (Climate Policy Uncertainty Index - CPUI), enerji tüketimi, karbon salınımı ve işletme stratejileri üzerindeki politika belirsizliklerinin etkisini değerlendirmeye yönelik önemli bir araç olarak öne çıkmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, 1987-2022 yılları arasında CPUI’nin Türkiye’nin yenilenebilir ve yenilenemez enerji tüketimi üzerindeki etkisi incelenmiştir. Çalışmada, uzun dönemli ilişkileri belirlemek için Johansen eşbütünleşme testi uygulanmıştır. Ayrıca, eşbütünleşme katsayılarının tahmini için FMOLS, DOLS ve CCR yöntemleri kullanılmıştır. Çalışmanın bulguları, CPUI ile Türkiye’nin yenilenebilir ve yenilenemez enerji tüketimi arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin varlığını ortaya koymaktadır. Katsayı tahmincilerine göre, CPUI’nin yenilenebilir enerji kaynakları üzerinde anlamlı bir etkisi bulunmazken, yenilenemez enerji kaynakları üzerinde negatif bir etkisi olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• İklim Değişikliği
• İklim Politikası Belirsizliği
• Yenilenebilir Enerji
• Yenilenemez Enerji
• Türkiye

Are Climate Uncertainties Affecting Turkey’s Renewable And Non-Renewable Energy Sources?

Öz

In the modern world, increasing carbon emissions and climate change are exacerbating environmental and economic issues, as well as political uncertainties. These uncertainties have a profound impact, especially on the energy sector, and make the development of sustainable energy policies imperative. In this context, the Climate Policy Uncertainty Index (CPUI) stands out as an important tool for assessing the impact of policy uncertainties on energy consumption, carbon emissions, and business strategies. In this study, the impact of the Climate Policy Uncertainty Index (CPUI) on Turkey’s renewable and non-renewable energy consumption between 1987 and 2022 was examined. In the study, the Johansen cointegration test was applied to determine long-term relationships. Additionally, FMOLS, DOLS, and CCR methods were used to estimate the cointegration coefficients. The findings of the study reveal the existence of a long-term relationship between CPUI and Turkey’s renewable and non-renewable energy consumption. According to the coefficient estimators, while CPUI does not have a significant effect on renewable energy sources, it has been determined to have a negative effect on non-renewable energy sources.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Climate Change
• Climate Policy Uncertainty
• Renewable Energy
• Non-Renewable Energy
• Türkiye

Kaynakça

1. Alqaralleh, H., & Hatemi-J, A. (2024). Revisiting the effects of renewable and non-renewable energy consumption on economic growth for eight countries: Asymmetric panel quantile approach. International Journal of Energy Sector Management, 18(2), 334-349. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJESM-10-2022-0022
2. Borozan, D., & Pirgaip, B. (2023). Does uncertainty in climate policy play a role in shaping renewable energy use? Evidence from the USA. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 1-26. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-023-03965-9
3. Bouri, E., Iqbal, N., & Klein, T. (2022). Climate policy uncertainty and the price dynamics of green and brown energy stocks, Finance Research Letters, 47. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2022.102740.
4. Cavlak, O. D. (2022). A nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach for US climate policy uncertainty index, renewable energy consumption, and oil prices. Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 24(2), 757-776. https://doi.org/10.26745/ahbvuibfd.1055390
5. Danish, Ulucak, R., & Khan, S. U. D. (2020). Relationship between energy intensity and CO2 emissions: Does economic policy matter?. Sustainable Development, 28(5), 1457-1464. https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.2098
6. Deka, A., Özdeşer, H., & Seraj, M. (2024). The impact of oil prices, financial development and economic growth on renewable energy use. International Journal of Energy Sector Management, 18(2), 351-368. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJESM-09-2022-0008
7. Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society, 1057-1072. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912517
8. Dinç, Ö. G. (2023). ABD’de iklim politikası belirsizliği yenilenebilir enerji tüketimini etkiler mi? Anadolu Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi, 24(4), 180-203. https://doi.org/10.53443/anadoluibfd.1260702

9. Ding, Y., Liu, Y., & Failler, P. (2022). The impact of uncertainties on crude oil prices: Based on a quantile-on-quantile method. Energies, 15(10), 3510. https://doi.org/10.3390/en15103510
10. Doğan, B. Ö. (2023). The relationship between climate policy uncertainty and inflation: The case of the USA. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 18(3), 675-687. https://doi.org/10.17153/oguiibf.1292370
11. Dong, X., Wang, K. H., Tao, R., Sorana, V., & Moldovan, N. C. (2024). Is there a relationship between climate policy uncertainty and green finance? Evidence from bootstrap rolling window test. Economic Analysis and Policy, 82, 277-289. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2024.03.013
12. Enerji Verimliliği ve Çevre Dairesi Başkanlığı (2023). https://enerji.gov.tr/evced-cevre-ve-iklim-paris-anlasmasi (12.25.2024).
13. Erdogan, S., Okumus, I., & Guzel, A. E. (2020). Revisiting the environmental kuznets curve hypothesis in OECD countries: The role of renewable, non-renewable energy, and oil prices. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27, 23655-23663. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-08520-x
14. Gavriilidis, K. (2021). Measuring climate policy uncertainty. Available at SSRN 3847388. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3847388
15. Gozgor, G., Mahalik, M.K. Demir, E. & Padhan, H. (2020). The impact of economic globalization on renewable energy in the OECD countries. Energy Policy, 139,11365, 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111365
16. Hayakawa, K., & Kurozumi, E. (2008). The role of “leads” in the dynamic OLS estimation of cointegrating regression models. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 79(3), 555-560. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.matcom.2008.02.027
17. Hoang, H. V. (2024). Environmental, social, and governance disclosure in response to climate policy uncertainty: Evidence from US firms. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 26(2), 4293-4333. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-022-02884-5
18. Iqbal, N., Bouri, E., Shahzad, S. J. H., & Alsagr, N. (2024). Asymmetric impacts of Chinese climate policy uncertainty on Chinese asset prices. Energy Economics, 133, 107518. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107518
19. Işık, C., Ongan, S., Ozdemir, D., Jabeen, G., Sharif, A., Alvarado, R., Amin, A., & Rehman, A. (2024). Renewable energy, climate policy uncertainty, industrial production, domestic exports/re-exports, and CO2 emissions in the USA: A SVAR approach. Gondwana Research, 127, 156-164. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gr.2023.08.019
20. Ji, Q., Ma, D., Zhai, P., Fan, Y., & Zhang, D. (2024). Global climate policy uncertainty and financial markets. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 95, 102047. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2024.102047
21. Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2-3), 231-254. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1889(88)90041-3
22. Karakaya, E. (2016). Paris iklim anlaşması: içeriği ve Türkiye üzerine bir değerlendirme. Adnan Menderes Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 3(1), 1-12. https://doi.org/10.30803/adusobed.188842
23. Kettner, C., & Kletzan‐Slamanig, D. (2020). Is there climate policy integration in European Union energy efficiency and renewable energy policies? Yes, no, maybe. Environmental Policy and Governance, 30(3), 141-150.
24. Kirikkaleli, D., & Adebayo, T. S. (2021). Do renewable energy consumption and financial development matter for environmental sustainability? New global evidence. Sustainable Development, 29(4), 583-594. https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.2159
25. Kuscevic, C. M. M., & Martin, D. D. (2015). Dollarization and money demand stability in Bolivia. Economics and Business Letters, 4(3), 116-122. https://doi.org/10.17811/ebl.4.3.2015.116-122
26. Köse, İ. (2018). İklim Değişikliği Müzakereleri: Türkiye’nin Paris Anlaşması’nı İmza Süreci. Ege Stratejik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 9(1), 55-81. https://doi.org/10.18354/esam.329348
27. Li, Z. Z., Su, C. W., Moldovan, N. C., & Umar, M. (2023). Energy consumption within policy uncertainty: Considering the climate and economic factors. Renewable Energy, 208, 567-576. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2023.03.098
28. Liang, C., Umar, M., Ma, F., & Huynh, T. L. (2022). Climate policy uncertainty and world renewable energy index volatility forecasting. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 182, 121810, 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2022.121810
29. Liu, X., Adebayo, T. S., Ramzan, M., Ullah, S., Abbas, S., & Olanrewaju, V. O. (2023). Do coal efficiency, climate policy uncertainty and green energy consumption promote environmental sustainability in the United States? An application of novel wavelet tools. Journal of Cleaner Production, 417, 137851. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.137851
30. Marques, A. C., Fuinhas, J. A., & Manso, J. P. (2010). Motivations driving renewable energy in European countries: A panel data approach. Energy Policy, 38(11), 6877-6885. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2010.07.003
31. Mehta, L., Srivastava, S., Adam, H. N., Alankar, Bose, S., Ghosh, U., & Kumar, V. V. (2019). Climate change and uncertainty from ‘above’and ‘below’: Perspectives from India. Regional Environmental Change, 19, 1533-1547. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-019-01479-7
32. Papież, M., Śmiech, S., & Frodyma, K. (2018). Determinants of renewable energy development in the EU countries. A 20-year perspective. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 91, 918-934. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2018.04.075
33. Rehman, M. Z., Khan, S., Khan, U. A., Alonazi, W. B., & Noman, A. A. (2023). How do global uncertainties spillovers affect leading renewable energy indices? Evidence from the Network Connectedness Approach. Sustainability, 15(18), 13630. https://doi.org/10.3390/su151813630
34. Ren, X., Li, J., He, F., & Lucey, B. (2023). Impact of climate policy uncertainty on traditional energy and green markets: Evidence from time-varying granger tests. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 173, 113058. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2022.113058
35. Ren, X., Shi, Y., & Jin, C. (2022). Climate policy uncertainty and corporate investment: Evidence from the Chinese energy industry. Carbon Neutrality, 1(1), 14. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43979-022-00008-6
36. Sadorsky, P. (2009). Renewable energy consumption, CO2 emissions and oil prices in the G7 countries. Energy Economics, 31(3), 456-462. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2008.12.010
37. Salim, R. A., & Rafiq, S. (2012). Why do some emerging economies proactively accelerate the adoption of renewable energy?. Energy Economics, 34(4), 1051-1057. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2011.08.015
38. Sarker, P. K., Bouri, E., & Marco, C. K. L. (2023). Asymmetric effects of climate policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk, and crude oil prices on clean energy prices. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30(6), 15797-15807.https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-23020-w
39. Shang, Y., Han, D., Gozgor, G., Mahalik, M. K., & Sahoo, B. K. (2022). The impact of climate policy uncertainty on renewable and non-renewable energy demand in the United States. Renewable Energy, 197, 654-667. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2022.07.159
40. Su, C. W., Wei, S., Wang, Y., & Tao, R. (2024). How does climate policy uncertainty affect the carbon market?. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 200, 123155. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2023.123155
41. Syed, Q. R., Apergis, N., & Goh, S. K. (2023). The dynamic relationship between climate policy uncertainty and renewable energy in the US: Applying the novel Fourier augmented autoregressive distributed lags approach. Energy, 275, 127383. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2023.127383
42. Tian, L., & Li, X. (2023). Does climate policy uncertainty affect carbon emissions in China? A novel dynamic ARDL simulation perspective. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 10(1), 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-023-02102-1
43. Yang, J., Dong, D., & Liang, C. (2024). Climate policy uncertainty and the US economic cycle. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 202, 123344. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123344
44. Zeng, Q., Ma, F., Lu, X., & Xu, W. (2022). Policy uncertainty and carbon neutrality: Evidence from China. Finance Research Letters, 47, 102771. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2022.102771
45. Zhou, D., Siddik, A. B., Guo, L., & Li, H. (2023). Dynamic relationship among climate policy uncertainty, oil price and renewable energy consumption—findings from TVP-SV-VAR approach. Renewable Energy, 204, 722-732. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2023.01.018